Gallagher PREM play-off permutations as two PREM giants stand on brink of exit

Saracens and Bristol Bears head into the final round of the Gallagher PREM regular season facing the very real prospect of missing out on the play-offs altogether.

While Northampton Saints, Bath and Leicester Tigers have already secured their places in the top four, the battle for the final four berths remains alive heading into a decisive weekend.

Neither side are able to secure a top-four place regardless of results.

Exeter Chiefs are the side applying pressure from outside the top four and could still snatch a play-off place if results fall in their favour.

Northampton are the only side capable of guaranteeing themselves a home semi-final this weekend. Any victory over Gloucester would secure a top-two finish.

Gallagher Premiership

P

W

L

D

PF

PA

PD

BP T

BP-7

BP

Total

1

Northampton

16

13

2

1

67

2

Bath

16

12

4

0

63

3

Leicester

16

12

4

0

62

4

Exeter Chiefs

16

9

6

1

55

5

Saracens

16

9

7

0

52

6

Bristol

16

10

6

0

50

7

Sale

16

4

12

0

29

8

Harlequins

16

5

11

0

26

9

Gloucester

16

4

12

0

25

10

Newcastle

16

1

15

0

7

Even a draw could be enough for Phil Dowson’s side. A three-point draw would guarantee a home play-off provided Bath fail to collect four points or Leicester fail to register a bonus-point win.

A two-point draw or loss would still be enough if Leicester win and Bath take no points, if Bath win and Leicester collect fewer than two points, or if both chasing sides lose.

A one-point defeat would secure a home semi-final if Bath win but Leicester fail to collect a point, or if both Bath and Leicester lose.

Even a pointless defeat could be enough for Northampton, provided Bath collect fewer than two points and Leicester fewer than three.

Bath can also secure a home semi-final this weekend. Johann van Graan’s side need a bonus-point win and must hope Leicester take nothing from their final-round fixture.

Leicester, meanwhile, cannot mathematically guarantee a home play-off this weekend and will need results elsewhere to fall in their favour.

The race for the final top-four position is where the drama lies.

Northampton, Bath and Leicester are already assured of their play-off places, leaving Bristol, Saracens and Exeter battling for the final berth.

Neither Bristol nor Saracens can guarantee qualification this weekend, while Exeter know exactly what is required.

The Chiefs must win. Anything less than victory ends their season.

A bonus-point win would secure a top-four finish if Bristol collect fewer than two points and Saracens collect fewer than three.

A standard four-point victory would also be enough if Bristol fail to register a point and Saracens collect fewer than two.

The permutations leave Bristol and Saracens walking a tightrope heading into the final weekend, with both former champions knowing their seasons could be over by Saturday evening.

For Exeter, the equation is considerably simpler. Win and hope the results elsewhere go their way.

For Bristol and Saracens, the final round represents a fight to keep their Gallagher PREM title ambitions alive.