LONG READ ‘Argentina Tests unquestionably winnable, but things can also go south quickly for Australia’

The Wallabies have been in Argentina a few days now, getting ready for two Tests that will be both crucial for the ongoing evolution of the side under Les Kiss and also their biggest test under the new coach.

Los Pumas in Argentina remains among the toughest assignments in international rugby now.

In the last two years alone, Argentina have claimed the scalps of New Zealand, South Africa, Australia and a French XV, as well as giving England an awful scare in the final game of the first block of Nations Championship matches in July.

Australia’s overall record in Argentina looks quite good, with 11 wins in 17 clashes going back to 1979.

Since Los Pumas’ admission to The Rugby Championship, however, that momentum has definitely shifted, with the Wallabies and Argentina splitting the two-Test TRC tours in 2022 and 2024, on top of Argentina also recording two wins in Australia in that time.

Those two mini-series in South America had eery parallels: a hard-fought win built on resilience in the first match, followed by a record loss in the second.

In 2022, the Wallabies hoisted the wettest of sails to mount a 31-point second-half comeback and win the first Test 41-26. That was despite losing Quade Cooper to an Achilles injury midway through and Michael Hooper on the eve of the match, after he flew home for personal health reasons.

A week later, Los Pumas ran in seven tries to two to win the second Test 48-17, handing Australia their largest-ever defeat against Argentina at the time.

In 2024, it was awfully similar. An 80th-minute Ben Donaldson penalty sealed a late, gritty 20-19 comeback win in pouring rain in La Plata, followed by a complete structural breakdown a week later in Santa Fe. Leading 20-3 after half an hour, the Wallabies conceded 64 unanswered points to lose 67-27.

It was the largest defensive surrender in Australia’s Test history and highlighted a worrying trend where they struggled to manage game tempo when playing away, frequently giving away multi-score leads or needing last-gasp bench impact to stay competitive.

Even being at home, Los Pumas could open a gap on the Wallabies with a couple of wins. Winning at least one game needs to be an Australian goal, but that will be no simple task.

Tests in Argentina are unquestionably winnable, but equally, things can go south very quickly if the little things aren’t done right. Danger lurks not far below the clear opportunities that sit in clear sight.

And make no mistake, Los Pumas would have a very similar approach to touring Australia.

They’ve won their last two Test outings in Sydney, in 2023 and last year, and were also on track to win in Townsville last year, only for a piece of close-range sleight of hand brilliance from Len Ikitau to send Angus Bell over in the 86^th minute.

Their proximity in the World Rugby rankings in recent years highlights how little there is between the two nations, and currently they’re close enough (seventh and eighth, with just 0.46 of a point between them) that even one Wallabies win over the next fortnight could see a change in those places.

Of course, the opposite is also true. Even being at home, Los Pumas could open a gap on the Wallabies with a couple of wins. Winning at least one game needs to be an Australian goal, but that will be no simple task.

There’s no doubt the Argentines are playing with the same belief former-and-new NSW Waratahs coach Michael Cheika instilled in them over his two years in charge, and his understudy Felipe Contepomi has carried that on, while adding a little more of the natural attacking flair that he lived on as a former Los Pumas fly-half.

In 2026, however, there are a few questions bubbling around their defence. Despite keeping the Springboks to just 17 points earlier this month, they conceded 47 and 31 in their Nations Championship losses to Scotland and England respectively in July, and even let Wales score 21 in their 14-point win in between.

Teams playing multi-phase attack were able to find opportunities as the Pumas’ line lost its connection and integrity as the old Argentine standard of discipline also became a factor – during the messy end to the England game in particular.

Through July under Joe Schmidt and now Kiss, the Wallabies have found they can cause opposition teams trouble with a structured and patient multi-phase attack

There were also questions about their ability to convert 22 entries into tries as well, which in turn saw scoreboard pressure on them, forcing turnovers and/or breakdown penalties as they chased a score.

So the questions for the Wallabies become instantly obvious.

Are they good enough to firstly identify potential opportunities to exploit Los Pumas, and how do they go about exploiting them?

Well, for one thing, through July under Joe Schmidt and now Kiss, the Wallabies have found they can cause opposition teams trouble with a structured and patient multi-phase attack, with both former Irish-system coaches preferring a higher possession game than many other teams.

They certainly have the ability to mount an effective pick-and-drive carry game that comes to life as they enter the opposition 22, and their 22-entry conversion rate this season has been a welcome improvement on recent years.

The Wallabies still don’t kick as much as many teams, but they’ve already learned the hard way in 2026 there is very little benefit in having a strong carry game at the wrong end of the field. A strong exit strategy is going to be crucial, as is a willingness for attacking kicks that gain the territory in order to utilise that pick-and-drive game in the right parts of the field.

I can’t help but wonder if the Wallabies might give thought to early penalty goals, just to get the scoreboard ticking over. Despite only attempting three penalties in their last 10 Tests (and missing them all), early points might start applying scoreboard pressure – especially if the weather adds extra risk to trying to drill kicks into the corner.

After two wins over Japan – with very different circumstances and satisfaction levels about them – the Wallabies will tackle Argentina with confidence, but a wary confidence that knows recent form for the home team often means nothing.

There is certainly an opportunity to continue their evolution, and one or two wins would be more significant steps forward as they get ready for a difficult back half to their international season.

But the dangers are ever-present. The Wallabies really can’t afford too many setbacks as we edge closer to a Rugby World Cup on home soil.