LONG READ ‘Forget the Home Nations… ‘Protected’ France are the only team who can rival South Africa’

The bookmakers are unanimous: South Africa are the hot favourites to win the 2027 World Cup and achieve the unprecedented feat of three consecutive titles.

It would take a bold punter to bet against them a year out from the tournament Down Under.

New Zealand gave it their best shot against South Africa in the riveting four-Test ‘Greatest Rivalry’ series but the Boks were too powerful, too organised and too experienced. Forget a credible challenge from the Home Nations. None of them have the tools to topple the world champions. Ditto for Australia and Argentina.

That leaves France, arguably the only nation who can rival South Africa both in finesse and brute force.

They are also an experienced and cohesive squad. The majority of the XV that will run out against the USA on 2 October next year will have featured in the 2023 quarter-final defeat by South Africa.

Only prop Uini Atonio has retired, although injuries and age make it unlikely that centre Jonathan Danty will make the plane to Australia.

France’s problem – as this column has pointed out previously – is wear and tear. There’s a reason why South Africa and the All Blacks are able to go at it hammer and tongs in four exhilarating Test matches, and that’s the way they are managed. Many play their club rugby in Japan, which is about as demanding to rugby players as Saudi Arabia’s league is to the world’s top footballers.

The Top 14, on the other hand, is a mental and physical challenge. Two rounds gone and already there’s a queue for the treatment table.

Few of France’s top players have avoided serious injury in recent seasons and several have been sidelined for months, mostly with knee injuries.

Toulouse and France centre Pierre-Louis Barassi is out for a month after injuring his ankle on the opening weekend; another centre Auguste Cadot – who was in France’s Nations Championship squad – suffered a serious knee injury playing for Montpellier last Saturday. Bordeaux’s international back-row Cameron Woki missed their clash against Toulouse with a damaged hand. And it’s not just an issue for French players; Toulouse’s Italian centre, Tommaso Menoncello, picked up an injury on the opening day of the season and isn’t expected to return until the end of the month.

Few of France’s top players have avoided serious injury in recent seasons and several – among them Antoine Dupont, Romain Ntamack, Antony Jelonch, Charles Ollivon and Cyrill Baille – have been sidelined for months, mostly with knee injuries.

One can imagine the stress levels of Fabien Galthié and his coaching staff across every weekend of Top 14 fixtures.

But a new agreement between the FFR and the LNR, the governing body of the Top 14, should allow Galthié to breathe a little easier this season. As the headline in Midi Olympique put it: “33 protected, a revolution?’

As of this season, 33 players will be managed by their clubs and the national team in order to ensure they aren’t overloaded with matches.

Clubs must allow the players concerned one weekend off for every block of four matches (Top 14 or European), or two rest weekends across a series of eight matches.

For his part, Galthié will not be able to select the same player more than nine times in France’s 12 Tests this season. These matches comprise four November internationals in the Nations Championship, five Six Nations matches and three World Cup warm up games next summer.

Emmanuel Eschalier, the CEO of the LNR, described the deal as a “principle of shared responsibility”, one which “can be adapted by mutual agreement between the French national team’s coaching staff and the club’s coaching staff”.

Ugo Mola is a patriotic Frenchman, but will he be able to adhere to the agreement next spring if Toulouse are challenging for honours in Europe and the Top 14?

Eschalier explained that a FFR-LNR task force will monitor the number of matches played by the 33 ‘protected’ players. “We hope this will have a positive effect on better management of the workload ahead of the World Cup,” he said.

But Eschalier also conceded that the agreement is not binding; rather they are “guidelines” as opposed to strict rules. Will they be respected? Of the 33 names on the list, 13 play for Toulouse and six for Bordeaux. La Rochelle, Pau and Toulon have three representatives, Racing two and one each for Clermont, Lyon and Montpellier.

Ugo Mola is a patriotic Frenchman, but will he be able to adhere to the agreement next spring if Toulouse are challenging for honours in Europe and the Top 14?

As for Galthié, he may have to field an under-strength side in one or two matches if he is to keep his side of the bargain. France play Fiji, South Africa and Argentina in November, plus a match on the finals weekend of the Nations Championship, dependent upon their ranking.

Then comes the 2027 Six Nations, followed by warm up matches in the summer; subject to confirmation, France will play England and a double header against Scotland.

Twelve Tests, but as no player can appear in more than nine, it will require some deft selections by Galthié.

He drew up his list at the start of this year, before the Six Nations. Since then, some of the 33 have slipped down the pecking order. The two Racing players, Ugo Seunes and Romain Taofifenua, haven’t played any Tests in 2026; nor have Toulouse prop Cyril Baille or the veteran Toulon centre Gael Fickou.

For too long, French players have been worked to the bone. This agreement should afford them better protection. It should also send France to the World Cup in their best possible shape.

Conversely, Marko Gazzotti, Florian Verhaeghe and Aaron Grandidier-Nkanang all impressed in July’s Nations Championship matches, but they aren’t on the list. Nor are Bordeaux scrum-half Maxime Lucu and Pau lock Hugo Auradou, who were injured at the start of the year but subsequently featured in the Six Nations.

One hopes the agreement will be honoured by both parties: for the good of France and for the sake of the players. Last season Louis Bielle-Biarrey played 31 matches, one more than World Rugby’s recommendation of a maximum of 30 in a season. Thomas Ramos was bang on that number and several others were just below it.

For too long, French players have been worked to the bone. This agreement should afford them better protection. It should also send France to the World Cup in their best possible shape.

It might be worth putting a few bucks on the Bleus.