The bookmakers are unanimous: South Africa are the hot favourites to win the 2027 World Cup and achieve the unprecedented feat of three consecutive titles.
It would take a bold punter to bet against them a year out from the tournament Down Under.
New Zealand gave it their best shot against South Africa in the riveting four-Test ‘Greatest Rivalry’ series but the Boks were too powerful, too organised and too experienced. Forget a credible challenge from the Home Nations. None of them have the tools to topple the world champions. Ditto for Australia and Argentina.
That leaves France, arguably the only nation who can rival South Africa both in finesse and brute force.
They are also an experienced and cohesive squad. The majority of the XV that will run out against the USA on 2 October next year will have featured in the 2023 quarter-final defeat by South Africa.
Only prop Uini Atonio has retired, although injuries and age make it unlikely that centre Jonathan Danty will make the plane to Australia.
France’s problem – as this column has pointed out previously – is wear and tear. There’s a reason why South Africa and the All Blacks are able to go at it hammer and tongs in four exhilarating Test matches, and that’s the way they are managed. Many play their club rugby in Japan, which is about as demanding to rugby players as Saudi Arabia’s league is to the world’s top footballers.
The Top 14, on the other hand, is a mental and physical challenge. Two rounds gone and already there’s a queue for the treatment table.
Few of France’s top players have avoided serious injury in recent seasons and several have been sidelined for months, mostly with knee injuries.
Toulouse and France centre Pierre-Louis Barassi is out for a month after injuring his ankle on the opening weekend; another centre Auguste Cadot – who was in France’s Nations Championship squad – suffered a serious knee injury playing for Montpellier last Saturday. Bordeaux’s international back-row Cameron Woki missed their clash against Toulouse with a damaged hand. And it’s not just an issue for French players; Toulouse’s Italian centre, Tommaso Menoncello, picked up an injury on the opening day of the season and isn’t expected to return until the end of the month.
Few of France’s top players have avoided serious injury in recent seasons and several – among them Antoine Dupont, Romain Ntamack, Antony Jelonch, Charles Ollivon and Cyrill Baille – have been sidelined for months, mostly with knee injuries.
One can imagine the stress levels of Fabien Galthié and his coaching staff across every weekend of Top 14 fixtures.
But a new agreement between the FFR and the LNR, the governing body of the Top 14, should allow Galthié to breathe a little easier this season. As the headline in Midi Olympique put it: “33 protected, a revolution?’
As of this season, 33 players will be managed by their clubs and the national team in order to ensure they aren’t overloaded with matches.
Clubs must allow the players concerned one weekend off for every block of four matches (Top 14 or European), or two rest weekends across a series of eight matches.
For his part, Galthié will not be able to select the same player more than nine times in France’s 12 Tests this season. These matches comprise four November internationals in the Nations Championship, five Six Nations matches and three World Cup warm up games next summer.
Emmanuel Eschalier, the CEO of the LNR, described the deal as a “principle of shared responsibility”, one which “can be adapted by mutual agreement between the French national team’s coaching staff and the club’s coaching staff”.
Ugo Mola is a patriotic Frenchman, but will he be able to adhere to the agreement next spring if Toulouse are challenging for honours in Europe and the Top 14?
Eschalier explained that a FFR-LNR task force will monitor the number of matches played by the 33 ‘protected’ players. “We hope this will have a positive effect on better management of the workload ahead of the World Cup,” he said.
But Eschalier also conceded that the agreement is not binding; rather they are “guidelines” as opposed to strict rules. Will they be respected? Of the 33 names on the list, 13 play for Toulouse and six for Bordeaux. La Rochelle, Pau and Toulon have three representatives, Racing two and one each for Clermont, Lyon and Montpellier.
Ugo Mola is a patriotic Frenchman, but will he be able to adhere to the agreement next spring if Toulouse are challenging for honours in Europe and the Top 14?
As for Galthié, he may have to field an under-strength side in one or two matches if he is to keep his side of the bargain. France play Fiji, South Africa and Argentina in November, plus a match on the finals weekend of the Nations Championship, dependent upon their ranking.
Then comes the 2027 Six Nations, followed by warm up matches in the summer; subject to confirmation, France will play England and a double header against Scotland.
Twelve Tests, but as no player can appear in more than nine, it will require some deft selections by Galthié.
He drew up his list at the start of this year, before the Six Nations. Since then, some of the 33 have slipped down the pecking order. The two Racing players, Ugo Seunes and Romain Taofifenua, haven’t played any Tests in 2026; nor have Toulouse prop Cyril Baille or the veteran Toulon centre Gael Fickou.
For too long, French players have been worked to the bone. This agreement should afford them better protection. It should also send France to the World Cup in their best possible shape.
Conversely, Marko Gazzotti, Florian Verhaeghe and Aaron Grandidier-Nkanang all impressed in July’s Nations Championship matches, but they aren’t on the list. Nor are Bordeaux scrum-half Maxime Lucu and Pau lock Hugo Auradou, who were injured at the start of the year but subsequently featured in the Six Nations.
One hopes the agreement will be honoured by both parties: for the good of France and for the sake of the players. Last season Louis Bielle-Biarrey played 31 matches, one more than World Rugby’s recommendation of a maximum of 30 in a season. Thomas Ramos was bang on that number and several others were just below it.
For too long, French players have been worked to the bone. This agreement should afford them better protection. It should also send France to the World Cup in their best possible shape.
It might be worth putting a few bucks on the Bleus.
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I would say with confidence that the Springboks, while one of the greatest teams of all-time, are a very beatable side at the 2027 RWC.
While winning about 75% of their tests (4/6) vs All Blacks this RWC cycle is very impressive, it does prove the Springboks lose 25% of the time against a very flawed All Blacks team which no one would claim is one of the better All Black teams.
France and England on their day can also beat anyone.
The All Blacks were heavy favourites to three-peat in 2019. We know how that turned out in the semi-final after a very emotional QF win over Ireland. While the All Blacks and Springboks focus on beating the other in the QF, France is plotting a semi-final ambush on the winner, just as Eddie Jones’ England did in 2019.
This makes no sense whatsoever.
At best, your stated statistics tell us that if the ABs and Springboks played the the QF in 2027 4 times - the springboks win 3/4 times.
Of the last 10 tests against the ABs, the Springboks have won 8.
So “very beatable” is not what the numbers suggest. In fact the opposite is true. Hard to beat.
You’re also assuming that a World Cup knockout and the first test of a 4 test series are the same. They are not.
When the springboks had to win 3 games in a row to win the series, they won 100% of those games. New Zealand lost the very next game and continued to lose.
Proving, yet again, that the SBs are very hard to beat when the chips are down.
Knockouts are when the boks are at their best, and very UNbeatable.
France send their B team overt NZ and NZ scraped a win with a scratch side who’d hardly played together. France B team - playing IN NZ ran the ABs close. France have the forwards - the set piece AND the outside backs to take the Boks on with a balanced game - NZ have only got outside backs.
1 off tests can be won and lost between any of the top 8 sides in the world - not just top 3 - top 8.
That game against the ABs had lots of factors that seemed unusual:
ABs
-first Dave Rennie’s game (new system and so on)
-first ABs game in the international season (rustiness, as always)
-many key players missing in the ABs squad (that didn’t necessarily come back for the RGR)
-few new players
but
-not the first game in black for most of the players
-a Canes core following up a crazy Super Rugby season
-world class players
-playing at home
France
-B team for France (a few A players and many B, C or D ones)
-many new players
-first game in the window for that squad (rustiness)
-travelled to Australia and then NZ
-many players had already 25+ games in their suitcase (end of the season)
-Tier 2 pack
but
-a strong UBB core (happily for France finishing 8th of the Top 14)
-France XV with a few players had a game against England XV, so less rusty
-the system is the same, most of the players had the chance to be called for games as part of 42 players’ squad
-world class backline
-possibly the current world best 9-10 combo on form (Lucu-Jalibert)
All in all? Not an easy game to assess.
———
As for the pack, between 2022 and now, France has gone backwards in terms of world class players and power rankings.
Before, Baille was in the top 3, Mauvaka and Marchand in the top 5 (still are IMO), Atonio was in the top 4, Flament and Willemse in the top 10 locks, Ollivon, Cros and Alldritt all in the Top 3/5 of their respective positions.
Not the same now.
Gros is possibly in the LHP top 5, hookers are still on, but the THP position is dramatic (is Montagne in the top 20? 25?). Flament and Meafou still remain solid in the top 15 along with Guillard and possibly Ollivon with his position switch. But Alldritt has disappeared, Cros might be in the top 10, Jégou and Gazzotti Top 10 (but at the end of it), Nouchi top 15 maybe, Jelonch top 20? The pack isn’t as dominant, the rules have changed, the style of play too, but as in 2023 France could totally rival SA (with Willemse fit) at least for 1 hour in the forward pack and with a player like Danty in the backline, now the picture isn’t the same. They’re lacking a Tom Willis in sheer brute force or a Jack Willis in his ruck nuisance. The 2023 U20 RWC winning back row might be the future - Jégou/Nouchi/Gazzotti, 23, 22 and 21 - but for now there is a shortage in power. Boudehent might come back too, he has the power, he’s 27 so close to a peak form age, but will he fit the style of play?
Once again, for set piece, scrum is a big if….
True, France is a real threat, but we handled them quite well last year. Atm the only team that can beat these Boks is themselves, when they don’t pitch up. What a golden era it’s turned out to be. Unfortunately the real battle begins when our top players all retire after the 2027 RWC. Then there might be a bit of a break in form, but the U20’s are incredible atm. Also back to back champions, so it’s just a matter of introducing them soon enough.
Potential for France to play the Boks 2x during the Nations Championship
Boks still have Italy and Ireland to face as well before the final
Hectic year of rugby for the Boks and ABs having to face each other 4x and all of the 6N
This is the year where the depth Rassie has built will be properly tested
So far we De Villiers, Krappei and Hannekom have all shown they are to the manor bourn
Find the claim that France are the only NH team who can offer a threat to be entirely credible - if RWC2027 was being played in Europe! But it isn’t, it’s being played in Australia. I don’t doubt France’s talent, which is huge, but whilst being flogged in the Top 14 may well be a problem for them, their main problem, in my opinion, is that their top players rarely make the June tours to the SH, and simply aren’t used to managing the different conditions they will encounter there. They’re obviously good enough that they should get through the pool stages, so that offers some acclimatisation, but the knock out stages will be no place to get “on the job” training.
France’s finals:
-2 RWC in the SH
-1 RWC in the NH
It’s really funny to put a super emphasis on this fact, not seeing the bias that Galthié’s team has played one RWC, and yes, it happened to be in France, at home.
As stated by@J Marc , France and other NH teams do not have the luxury of an on-going Test season with no club interruptions, it’s split and it’s shorter when added up (3,5 months tops compared to 5/5,5 months for SH). And not all of SH teams obviously, as Fidji and Argentina do not have that privilege and have some key players rested…
So when you start your Autumn tour against the biggest team, who has had almost 4 months on, far away from their own July rustiness, it’s not the same.
Moreover, as a French player you’re more worn-out by playing in the 2 most competitive club competitions (Champions Cup and the Top 14), you play on average 30% more games per season, and you have less cohesion time. Even the English side has an alignment camp…
That is why only the RWC, with its preparation time (which will be shorter due to the Top 14), can be seen as a moment where all teams are starting pretty much from an equal position.
Every year, SH teams have only one international period, july to november and NH three: february/march, july and november ,it's a big différence in préparation . As you said, pool stage will offers acclimatisation. For France, last november, they began the séries vs SA ,with a side that did'nt played together since march. I don't think it will be enough to win WC, but it is not exactly the same thing.
Why are England, a team who have appeared in four finals being cast alongside the celtic no hopers?
Ireland should have put 50 on you. Scotland hammered you.
You are sh1t. Its not hard to understand?
England may well beat New Zealand as early as November in the Nation's Championship and I think that they will probably reach the final of the RWC in 2027
because no-one wants to even contemplate the prospect of a country boasting about their RWC victory for another 20+ years?
New Zealand, new coach, new players playing on South African territory. Yet still scored more tries. The problems, noticeable as they were are certainly fixable. Not a fan of the All Blacks but come the WC they’ll be there or thereabouts. Cheers
Scoring tries and still losing by a margin helps how exactly?
If you watched the tests, you would have seen how the Boks started rusty in the 1st test and then cranked it up! They outscored the AB’s 6-4 in the last test.
Boks showed they still have lots of margin for improvement.
The AB’s will be there or thereabouts, as will France, England, Ireland and Scotland.
Of those the teams that have the real depth to go deep when it is knockout rugby is the question. And it is in this that the Boks have an edge.
Even the best sides struggle to maintain a dynasty. In france 2023 SA we're 1 point winners in two games, so it's not like they were head and shoulders above the others. And if the ABs don't cop that red card in the final, they could have been losers. It's a fine line. I take zero indicators from the RGR because it was on their turf, mostly. And realistically the ABs were close in 2 of the 3 remaining tests after the first. Sure, they are statistically favorites, but I actually think that makes it harder for them. More pressure. The ABs will be hurting and will be tough in the qf for sure. But don't write Australia off, as the home nation. The pumas will also have their A team, which on their day can beat anyone. France, Ireland and England too are all realistic chances in my book.
one point winners in three knockout matches - update your memory and always remember that the Boks were the winners in those matches.
Any team that makes the QF in the WC has a great chance, especially with AB and SB potentially meeting in one of them. Love to be one of the other 6 to make it. Another good decision for this WC is the opening game AU v HK , most would think host v raining champions
Mate, its 2026 already. Get with it.
“realistically” the 1st test was the only test the AB’s were in control for large parts. The Blacks led for a total of 76min of the 320min played in the series.
Lots of if’s and but’s! Did you watch the RGR tests?
Then let me toss in some if's.
If Marx didn't have the ball stripped over the line, boks may have won the first test.
If the AB’s didn't score late consolation tries the gap would have been another 14 points over the last two tests.
If Angus Gardiner didn't capitulate in the 2nd test etc.
we also hammered the AB’s on their turf 43-10
Australia have improved a lot, still lack real depth to be a real threat.
England is an interesting one, came to SA full of fire and it got doused proper. France have only won 1 in the last 10 vs the Boks of which 3 were not at home.
Some very bold claims there bordering on the absurd. Not sure how the author figures that neither New Zealand, Argentina or Australia have the “tools” to defeat South Africa when they've all beaten South Africa in the last 12 months with the ABs notching victory in the first test of the tour this year. How long has it been since France last beat South Africa? A decade? Unless the whole purpose of this article was to upset all the SH commenters on here who I would wager make up at least 65% of the audience. In which case you've probably achieved exactly what you set out to.
The French have beaten the Springboks once in the last 16 years, I believe.
Marseilles a few years back. France are due to play South Africa in the semi-final, but I can’t see World Rugby letting South Africa win a 3rd consecutive World Cup. I expect New Zealand to get a few gifts in the quarter-final, so I’d be looking at France v New Zealand at World Cups as a yardstick. I was there in 1999. Great day out!
France’s problem is that they have beaten the springboks once in their last 10 outings.
Wales might have a better record.
But in seriousness, France are the danger team for sure. But it’s also now or never. Time for them to deliver.
They have got a lot better since your last victory - Galthie completely changed the game plan after that. They are the team to watch but the AB’s should also improve further.
The odds are in your favour HH but there is a reason it’s never been done before - it’s bloody hard to win and takes everything you have. If they do it, it will be very difficult to match.
I think their best chance was at home - they just don’t have the experience of playing in Australia that the Boks and AB’s do - for me it’s either Boks or AB’s with England, Australia and Argentine the ones to cause upsets - not necessarily win. The French may be there or thereabouts but they have no experience of living in strange conditions for two months - and you know how the French can just get gat vol of everything and spit the dummy.
Any team is capable of beating any other team in Rugby. It is the season and team sheet that counts. The same was said about Ireland before WC 23. Look where they ended up… The Boks written off game 1 in 2019…. Look where they ended up. Thankfully the national coaches doesn't coach according to what we predict or hope… Bok fan…