Final Showdown: Will the Jaguares be the first team to win a knockout match in Christchurch?
Few would question that the two teams who will play-off in the Super Rugby final on Saturday evening are this year’s two premier squads.
Some thought must be given to the Hurricanes – who narrowly lost out to the Crusaders last weekend with a few contentious decisions not falling their way.
Outside of the men from Wellington, however, no side has produced as consistent performances throughout the season as the Crusaders and the Jaguares.
The Crusaders naturally topped the log and only twice suffered losses in 2019. The Jaguares, who won the South Africa conference, made a slower start but have now won 11 of their last 12 matches.
The two conference champions have scored the most points throughout the season and are ranked first and third for points conceded.
The Super Rugby structure is obviously not ideal, but the cream has certainly risen to the top in 2019.
And yet, somehow there still seems a sense of inevitability that no matter how well the Jaguares play this weekend, the Crusaders will march on to their third consecutive title.
Dynasty of success
The Crusaders have now hosted 23 knockout matches in Super Rugby’s 23-year history. They’ve won all 23 of those fixtures. Saturday night will mark the sixth time that the Crusaders have hosted a grand final – and they’ve obviously won the previous five.
In the head-to-heads, the Crusaders also come up trumps – though there’s far less data there for making any actual predictions. The two finalists have clashed twice before, first in Christchurch and last year in Buenos Aires. The Crusaders earned bonus point wins in both games.
No fear in travelling
In recent years, the two finalists have typically come from different countries. 2015 was the last year when two sides from the same nation fought out a final, with the Highlanders besting the Hurricanes in Wellington. Prior to that, you have to go back to 2010 when the Bulls triumphed over the Stormers. Travel has now become an inevitable hurdle to overcome if you want to win a Super Rugby trophy and you don’t finish top of the regular season.
The Jaguares, who have one of the toughest schedules in the competition due to their isolation from the rest of the competition, have become rather adept at earning wins on the road – particularly in New Zealand and Australia.
In 2018, the Jaguares became the first foreign Super Rugby team to go undefeated in Australia and New Zealand – something the South African sides hadn’t achieved in over 20 years of trying. This year, the Jaguares reasserted their strength by winning three of their four tour matches – and they benched a number of their top players for the game against the Highlanders which they lost by only five points.
The Jaguares have now booked wins in Australasia against the Blues, Chiefs, Hurricanes, Waratahs, Rebels, Brumbies and Reds.
After losing their first seven matches to Kiwi opposition, the Jaguares have now won five of their last seven, so there certainly doesn’t appear to be any hoodoo attached to travelling to or playing against the New Zealand teams.
The bottom line
The above, however, overlooks the key factor that could sway the result in the Jaguares favour – they simply may just be the better team.
Before the season even kicked off, the Crusaders were instilled as comfortable favourites. They won the competition in the two previous years, had little player turnover and have an excellent coach guiding them. Have the expectations that the Crusaders will do well caused some to overrate their actual abilities?
The Crusaders have turned on some impressive performances in 2019 – particularly in Christchurch, but there have also been a number of blips. The first-round win against the Blues was decided on the Blues’ poor goal-kicking, whilst there were also some very poor losses to the Waratahs and Chiefs. Factor in draws against the Sharks and Stormers and the lucky escape against the Hurricanes and you’ll see that the Crusaders have struggled to put away teams that have remained within striking distance (or actually been ahead) in the final quarter.
That’s not to say that the Jaguares won’t be up against it. The stats are certainly all in the Crusaders’ favour and the Cantabrians will be buoyed on by their home crowd. Perhaps the Jaguares have a greater chance at toppling the Crusaders juggernaut than many expect, however. If the Argentinians can remain in touch with 20 minutes to go, then don’t be surprised if the Jaguares become the first-ever team to win a playoff match in Christchurch.
The Crusaders will be without two of their experienced campaigners this weekend, how will they cope?
Comments on RugbyPass
What a sad way to end a glittering career. Somebody should tell him to delete his social media accounts and face the consequences of what he's done. Then he should slip away quietly into obscurity. This isn't likely to happen, something tells me he'll be back in The Sun / Daily Mail sooner rather than later.
2 Go to commentsguys its fine! he understands why he did what he did and has taken accountability for it; why should he have to be accountable to a court? after all he did was abuse people in person - its not as if he was engaging in _online_ abuse!
2 Go to commentsChiefs flanker Kaylum Boshier yellow-carded for collapsing the scrum as it rolled towards the line. It was a maul….
1 Go to commentsyou know, i’m a leinster fan so I want Northampton to lose and it is gonna be tuff with Cortney lawes, Alex michell and the other guys🏉 lets go leinster🏉
1 Go to commentsWelcome to the Pro ranks. Those hard teams of old do hit the sole better though. its a dog fight at the top.
6 Go to commentsCan someone fill me in please, I've read a number of Ben Smith articles now and it seems he's got something again South Africa? Surely, this game was over and done with 7 months ago. Can't we have something a bit more interesting and relevant, or is this the calibre of journalist on this site?
227 Go to commentsNot sure what the Welsh are moaning about. They’ve had far more players off England, than England have had off Wales. Guys like Josh Hathaway and Kane James will play for Wales in the end. And they’ll be fsr better players for having played in the Gallagher Premiership, than they ever would have been had they stayed mired in the shambles that is Welsh rugby.
3 Go to commentsThis is all being blown totally out of proportion. First of all, since half the Irish team isn’t Irish - it’s very likely that none of the Irish players said that at all and, thus, we’re not being arrogant. Second, since half the Irish team is Kiwi - it’s very likely the Kiwi players were predicting a NZ SA World Cup final. Which they got spot on. Good on them!
163 Go to commentsAha. An Irishman with logic! Follow the flow: - Ireland peaks with a >80% win record between 2020 and 2023. And then… - crashes out of another QF at the WC; - Beat a poor French Team; - Beat 6N wooden spoonists Italy; - Play shite against eventual wooden spoonists Wales; - Lose against the most boring, “the worst English team ever” , a team widely regarded as unable to attack; - scrape through against Scotland. This article, No - Trimble, is on the money! Except for one glaring statement: _The Springboks have a few aces in the hole in this debate being the reigning world champions and official world number ones_ There is no debate, boys and girls. There it is. In black and white. “Reigning World Champions and OFFICIAL world number ones”. Come July, the overrated Andy Farrell and this overhyped team are going to enter into a world of hurt.
86 Go to commentsI’d like to know what homoerotic events Daniel enjoyed at 8th man. I clearly missed out!
19 Go to commentsThis article is missing some detail, like some actual context or info about what led to him abusing the ref.
2 Go to comments*They used to say that football is a gentleman sport watched by hooligans and rugby is a hooligan sport watched by gentlemen. How times have changed.*
3 Go to commentsexcept ot wasnt late wasnt late at all so dont know why you all saying its late he commits early and its your fault fir not paying attention
30 Go to commentsNot sure the Bulls need another average utility back in their ranks. Chamberlain has been ok for the Sharks but is by no means an X-Factor player. Bulls bought several utility backs which they barely use. A typical example would be Henry Immelman who plays mostly Fullback. The Bulls however have rarely played him this year and he has played wing or centre. Bulls want to build depth but seems like they have too many surplus players
1 Go to commentsABs lost against a side playing without a hooker - The guy playing, had one shoulder. Line outs were a gimme for the ABs, and the last 8 minutes 14 played 14 against a team that had been smashed 3 weeks in a row… Yet with all that possession, with all that territory, with all the advantages they actually had, especially in the last 8 minutes, they couldn’t buy a point. Those last 8 minutes determined if they outplayed the Boks or not. History will show that the Boks completely outplayed the ABs, especially in those last 8 minutes, the business end of any rugby match
227 Go to commentsWould’ve, could’ve, should’ve, didn’t.
227 Go to commentsKok will become a fan favourite
1 Go to commentsI am really looking forward to Leigh Halfpenny playing his first Super rugby game for the Crusaders Playing a long side his former Welsh and Scarlets team mate Johnny McNicoll.Johnny has been playing great, back in a Crusaders jersey.The attack has strengthened big time. Also looking forward to David Havili at 10. David is a class act, it also allows Dallas McLeod to remain at 12. A good thing.
1 Go to commentsIf he had stopped insisting on playing in the backrow, instead of wing, where everyone told him he should, he would have been a Bok years ago….
11 Go to comments‘Salads don’t win scrums’ 😂 I love that.
19 Go to comments