Analysis: How the All Blacks have changed since the 2015 World Cup
With the four-year World Cup cycle inching closer to the showpiece event, the 2015 edition becomes further and further in the rear view mirror, and with it the style of rugby that conquered all in that era.
The rate of change in the modern game is rapid, so much so that watching footage from the All Blacks 2011 World Cup campaign is almost unrecognisable. The 2015 one is becoming just as outdated.
Tweaks to ruck laws and tackle interpretations have had a butterfly effect across the game, forcing teams to adjust and spurring innovation in the process. Modes of operation have evolved and refined as teams search for efficiency.
In 2015 the All Blacks were still dining off turnovers, scoring long-range dazzling tries on counter-attack and showing off world-class skills. So, what has changed for the All Blacks since they last held aloft the William Webb Ellis trophy?
Evolution of Phase Play
The one area of the game that has undergone the most transformation has been attacking phase play.
We have seen advancement in organised structure, further dissemination of backs and forwards as modern patterns have become multi-level systems of organised attack.
Phase play in 2015 now looks like the first version of the iPhone compared to the newest one we have today. To understand why rugby has become so complex, we need to also understand why this has happened.
The emergence of ‘zero ruck’ defensive strategies allowed teams to focus less on competing for the ball and more on setting their line effectively, utilising numbers better to offer less space to the opposition and generate line speed. After all, a man on the ground is a man missing from the line.
With far more effective defensive lines, attacking phase play needed a counter-balancing leap forward to be successful in this new world. It needed to become more organised, more thought-out. It couldn’t rely totally on free-form movement anymore as this just led to inefficiency.
To illustrate what I mean by ‘inefficiency’, this is what an All Blacks ruck often looked like in 2015.
The All Blacks have seven players in this picture, two on the ground, two over the ball, two forwards caught in ‘no mans land’ arriving late to the ruck, and the halfback looking to deliver the ball.
That’s nearly half of the team, 46%, spread over a little more than a square metre.
It’s a gigantic waste of player resources and illustrates inefficiency. When the defence has up to 11 players in the front line, the remaining eight All Blacks available should struggle to find in-roads.
At least three of these players could be more effectively deployed elsewhere, running option lines to give the defence more to think about.
Again we have four players used to clean out, one of them the flyhalf Dan Carter who delivered the pass but now can’t be involved in the next phase, one on the ground and one halfback for a total of six players but zero Wallabies competing for the ball.
This wasn’t the case on every phase, but was always a risk. Two players could simultaneously identify a ruck needs support and join when only one is required. There would frequently be three bodies at a ruck, sometimes four, when you only needed two.
The need for more efficiency was clear, you needed to organise your players in a more effective manner limiting the ‘wastage’ that was to have players join rucks that they didn’t need to.
With an organised system of attack, you could rectify this and start throwing more complexity at the opposition.
Linear to Multi-level
The first versions of modern patterns were already in use at this time with the dispersion of forwards throughout phase play – Dane Coles, Kieran Read, Jerome Kaino, Richie McCaw could be found frequently on the edges of the field.
However, this was all in a fairly linear fashion, often in one straight line across the park.
With a linear, flat, line your only real option is to pass to the next man. And that’s what the All Blacks often did, using simple hands most of the time to find the edge where forwards like Kieran Read and Dane Coles resided.
The All Blacks had different splits that were either by design or by coincidence, floating between a variety of formations.
Below is a 2-2-2-2 split, with two forwards in the breakdown to the left and the three remaining pairs identified.
Here is a 1-3-1-1-1-1 split from a similar field position.
We have a defined pod with off the ruck, but the others are spread across the line with the last three men all forwards – McCaw, Vito and Coles.
There are loose strategies – certain forwards stationing on the flanks – but there aren’t systems that are designed to methodically break down a defensive line phase after phase.
Phase play was still largely free-form attack, being created on the run without thinking about it as a chess match. It is like the embryo of today’s patterns, which have become far more complex with each possible move programmed in advance.
Although it looks like we have defined levels with backdoor receivers in some of these pictures, it really wasn’t as clear as that. And it certainly wasn’t as prevalent as it is now. Most of the play was catch-pass to the man outside you, with little deception.
This linear play has evolved into defined multi-level patterns, with backs filling the role of the backdoor receivers in the second level, behind first level pods moving from linear attack to multi-level.
In 2015, Dan Carter was almost exclusively receiving the ball from his halfback at first receiver. To illustrate the rise of the swivel pass and multi-level play, in the third test against France Damian McKenzie had 60% of his touches as a backdoor option.
The rise of screen passing
Playing with two-levels of depth has opened up possibilities during phase play, with screen passing exploding in use.
With a short and deep option available on nearly every pass, defenders have to make more reads. Line speed can now be turned against you. Against a linear attack, rushing out was rather easy, now if the ball pushes to the deeper man you can be caught out. With defenders coming forward at different speeds, a fragmented line is likely to eventuate.
Base patterns like 1-3-3-1 and 2-4-2 or hybrids like 2-3-2-1 or 1-3-2-2 are so fine-tuned now that whatever option is taken (pod carry from the first level, second level release) the team knows where the next phase will be in advance, either right or left they have a programmed option, and can run a multitude of screen passes.
When every player knows what role they have, the team can add more layers of complexity, which is what the best teams have done – Tasman Makos, Exeter Chiefs, Saracens, Leinster, Crusaders, all have taken their base patterns to another level with pet plays ‘bolt-on’ as options to run during phase play.
Each phase now has a purpose, every involvement organised, with wasteful actions minimised. Teams can now throw far more complexity at a defensive line during phase play with patterns that can operate infinitely until a defensive line breaks apart or they make an error.
A team that epitomises this is the Exeter Chiefs, who control games through phase play.
Has the game lost creative play?
With such detailed playbooks, the risk is that the game becomes robotic and rigid.
What separates the good teams from the bad is the level of autonomy provided to the players and the skill of the players in the system.
They have a pattern, a framework to operate within, but they live and die on the reads they make, playing what’s in front of them with the plays they run. Sometimes the team falls out of organised pattern due to this, but then finds a way back.
The Wallabies have adopted many of the same ideas, but it is like they have seen the engine and have tried to build the same one without knowing any of the specifications.
Their spacing and depth is amiss, the timing is all out and in some cases, the players don’t have the skills required. The autonomy to play what you see is also missing, trying to run set plays with pre-determined outcomes. The system must have the flexibility to use the best option available, allowing the player to determine what that is, and the team must have shared knowledge about what to do next.
The rise of complexity in rugby is creating more beautiful play than ever, but it is creating a chasm between the top teams and the bottom with those struggling to evolve their attacking play. You need new types of players – with different skills, fitness and levels of IQ.
The All Blacks have stayed on top of this and been leading this revolution, and is it any surprise that Ireland, who have adopted and also mastered this type of attacking play, is now the world’s number two.
With another Rugby Championship in the bag, a meeting between the Six Nations champs and the All Blacks in November will be a demonstration of the two teams who have taken rugby to new frontiers in 2018.
Comments on RugbyPass
I think it is a dangerous path to go down to ban a player for the same period that a player they injured takes to recover. Players would be afraid to tackle anyone. I once tackled my best friend at school in a practice match and sprained his ankle. I paid for it by having to play fly-half instead of full-back for the rest of that season’s fixtures.
5 Go to commentsJust such a genuine good bloke…and probably the best all round player in his generation. Good guys do come first sometimes and he handled the W.Cup loss with great attitude.
2 Go to commentsWord in France is that he’s on the radar of a few Top14 clubs.
2 Go to commentsGet blocking Travis, this guy has styles and he’s gonna make a swift impact…!
1 Go to commentsWhat remorse? She claimed that her dangerous tackle wasn’t worthy of a red! She should be compensating the injured player for loss of earnings at the minimum. Her ban should include the recovery time of the injured player as well as the paltry 3 match ban.
5 Go to commentsArdie is a legend. Finished and klaar. Two things: “Yeah, yeah, I have had a few conversations with Razor just around feedback on my game and what I am doing well, what I need to improve on or work-ons. It’s kind of been minimal, mate, but it’s all that I need over here in terms of how to be better, how to get better and what I am doing well.” I hope he’s downplaying it - and that it’s not that “minimal”. The amount of communication and behind the scenes preparation the Bok coaches put into players - Rassie and co would be all over Ardie and being clear on what is expected of him. This stands out for me as something teams should really be looking at in terms of the boks success from a coaching point of view. And was surprised by the comment - “minimal”. In terms of the “debate” around Ireland and South Africa. Nice one Ardie. Indeed. There’s no debate.
2 Go to commentsThere’s a bit of depth there but realistically Australian players have a long way to go to now catch up. The game is moving on fast and Australia are falling behind. Australian sides still don’t priories the breakdown like they should, it’s a non-negotiable if you want to compete on the international stage. That goes for forwards and backs. The Australian team could have a back row that could make a difference but the problem is they don’t have a tight five that can do the business. Tupou is limited in defence, overweight and unfit and the locks are a long way from international standard. Frost is soft and Salakai-Loto is too small so that means they need a Valentini at 8 who has to do the hard graft so limits the effectiveness of the backrow. Schmidt really needs to get a hard working, tough tight 5 if he wants to get this team firing.
3 Go to commentsSorry Morgan you must have been the “go to for a quote” ex player this week. Its rnd 6 and there is plenty of time to cement a starting 15 and finishing 8 so I have no such concerns.
2 Go to commentsGreat read. I wish you had done this article on the ROAR.
2 Go to commentsThe current AB coaching team is basically the Crusaders so it smacks of wanting their familiar leaders around. This is not a good look for the future of the ABs or the younger players in Super working their way up the player ladder. Razor is touted as innovative, forward looking but his early moves look like insecurity and insular, provincial thinking. He is the AB's coach not the Golden Oldies.
10 Go to commentsSimple reason for wanting him back. Robertson wants him as captain. Otherwise he wouldn’t be bothering chasing him. Not enough reason to come back just to mentor.
10 Go to commentsI had not considered this topic like this at all, brilliant read. I had been looking at his record at the Waratahs and thought it odd the Crusaders appointed him, then couple that with all that experience and talent departing and boom. They’ve got some great talent developing though, and in all honesty I don’t think anyone would be over confident taking them on in a playoff match, no matter how poor the first half of their season was. I think they can pull a game out of their ass when it counts.
2 Go to commentsNot a bad list but not Porecki and not Donaldson. Not because they are Tahs, or Ex Tahs, they are just not good enough. Edmed should be ahead. Far more potential. Wilson should be 8 and Valentini 6. Wilson needs to be told by his father and his coach, stop bloody running in to brick wall defence. You’re not playing under the genius Thorn any more. He’s a fantastic angle runner. The young new 8 from the Brumbies looks really good too. The Lonegrans are just too small for international rugby as is Paisami, as is Hamish Stewart at 12. Both great at Super Rugby level. Stewart could have been a great 10 if not for Brad Thorn. Uru should be there and so should Tupou. Tupou just needs good Australian coaching which he hasn’t been getting. I don’t think Schmidt will excite him.
3 Go to commentsIf he wants to come back then he should. He will be a major asset to the younger locks and could easily be played as an impact player off the bench coming on in the last 30. He is fit, strong and capable and has all the experience to make up for any loss in physical prowess. He could also be brought back with a view to coaching within the structures one day. Duane Vermeulen played until he was 37 or 38. He is now a roaming coach within the South African coaching structures. He was valuable in the last world cup and has been a major influence on Jasper Wiese and other young players which has helped and accelerated their development and growth. Whitelock could do the exact same thing for NZ
10 Go to commentsBrett Excellent words… finally someone (other than DC) has noted that Hanigan is very hard and very good at doing what Backrow should do… his performance via the Drua sauna was quite daunting for those on the other side… very high tackle count… carries with good end result… constant threat to make a good 20-25 meters with those long legs… providing his mass effectively to crunching the Drua pack… Finally he is returning to quality form… way to much injury time over the last 2 years… smart-strong-competent in his skills… caught every lineout throw aimed at him and delivered clean pass to whoever was down below… and he worked hard for the whole 80 minutes… Ned has to be in the top 5 for backrow honors… He knows what is required as he has been there before…
20 Go to commentsI think Sam Whitelock should not touch a return with a bargepole. He went out on a high, playing in the RWC Final. He would be coming back into a team that will be weaker than last years, and might even be struggling to win games, especially against the Boks. Stay in France, enjoy another year with Pau, playing alongside his brother.
10 Go to commentsRyan Coxon has been very impressive considering he was signed by WF as injury cover whilst Uru has been a standout for QR, surprised neither of those mentioned
3 Go to commentsIt’s the massive value he brings with regard team culture/values, preparation, etc. Can’t buy that. I’m hoping to see the young locks get their chance in the big games though.
10 Go to commentsAll good, Gregor, except that you neglected to mention Sam Darry amongst that talented pool of locks. In fact, given Hannah’s inexperience and the fact that Holland won’t be eligible until next year, Lord and Darry might be the frontrunners this year, to join Barrett, Tuipoluto, Va’ii and possibly Whitelock. In fact there might be room for all of them if Barrett played 6 (like Ollie Chessum).
10 Go to commentsHis value is stabilizing the ship 20 - 40 minutes out from the final whistle plus his valuable experience to the underlings coming through.
10 Go to comments