Analysis: Can Joey Carbery continue his magic against Leinster?
The future of Joey Carbery was the off-season’s most debated topic in the Pro14.
The Leinster product was caught in the centre of a switch deal to ensure Ireland’s number two outhalf could receive as much game time as possible ahead of the World Cup.
Many believed Carbery should’ve been able to stay in Dublin while those at Thomond Park were delighted when the news broke of a two-year deal to Munster.
His undoubted ability showed in a 64-7 thumping of Ulster, setting the stage for his return to Leinster in what will be arguably one of the biggest club games of his young career.
What have we seen so far from Joey Carbery at Munster and can he continue his early form against Europe’s superpower, and his old club, Leinster?
Undoubted raw talent
There is no denying the 22-year-old outhalf has the ability to be a triple threat 10 – an attacking force that can run, kick or pass, creating opportunities with all three. We are already seeing that come into fruition at Munster, but it will take time to hone the decision-making skills into the complete package.
To illustrate his raw ability but also highlight how Carbery can get better as a ball-player this play is the perfect example.
We see the big ‘rainbow’ off the right wrist which hits winger Alex Wootton in the breadbasket, a remarkable piece of skill, but when you delve deeper into the play, it doesn’t do enough to break down Ulster’s defence.
The problems start on the first pass by Rory Scannell (12), who feeds Joey Carbery out of the back behind a line from CJ Stander.
When the pass is released, Stander is not flat enough to hold or commit any defenders allowing Ulster’s inside defence to slide. You can see all the players in white have plenty of time to decide Stander is not an option and push wide. He does hold them for a fraction, but all of them are able to recover and slide onwards.
Carbery receives the ball deep but still has plenty of time to sum up his options. Munster have an overlap developing and he can see the space his left wing has.
Ulster’s outside defenders (13 & 14) bite down but start to push out as they see Carbery’s eyes locked in on the outside option. Coupled with Ulster’s sliding inside defence, they will likely be able to cover the wide channels without too much bother. Everything is moving a bit too laterally for Munster, driven by Carbery who is moving sideways.
Carbery crabbing across field too much interferes with his centre Goggin, who is running a hard ‘unders’ line. The option to hit his 13 short expires as Goggin steams past him, and he also removes his own option to run by sliding behind the centre.
In order to avoid an obstruction, he now has to throw the pass, and he does, unloading a perfect cutout ball that hits Wootton in stride.
The problem is Ulster have every player available on their feet to shut this down, and while the ball sails in the air, they have the time to get there.
Fullback Peter Nelson (15) races up as dictated by their last man defence system, and all the other backs close down the space and prevent support players receiving offloads or passes.
Munster makes good ground on the play achieving a net gain but they don’t open up Ulster for a scoring opportunity.
Carbery shows his impressive long-range passing ability but can learn from this situation. It’s worth understanding how Carbery’s own body language worked against him, as well as his movement, which was too lateral.
With his head cocked left and eyes locked in on the outside option, he is leading Ulster’s defence to the ball. They read his cues and push out in anticipation of the long ball. He also runs himself out of other options by not playing direct, getting caught running behind his own player.
If he squared up earlier and looked to fix a defender, he could have played his short option (potentially hitting his 13 into a hole) but still kept the long-ball available. Taking out some of the interior defence by engaging contact would also give Munster more probability of keeping the play alive as it unfolds downfield.
Here is a more direct path Carbery could have taken to do this.
He could still use his eyes to sell the ‘rainbow’ pass, causing the outside defence to push up-and-out and over commit, whilst squaring up and fixing the opposite 12, opening up a running lane for his 13.
Selling the long-ball and playing short would adhere to the playmaker’s mantra ‘make the defence think one thing and do something else’, instead of locking in on one option early and revealing his cards.
This skill, however, is one of the most difficult things to do in the game consistently. We are talking about the ability to manipulate the defence and make sound decisions in under 1.5 to 2.0 seconds, all at the game speed of professional rugby.
This requires the disguise to hide your hand, the poise to execute a pass flawlessly with the knowledge you are about to get hammered, whilst picking the right option. It’s extremely difficult but is also the difference between a game-changing 10 and a one that is just a serviceable distributing 10.
Carbery already shows flashes of this ability, so it is about doing it consistently, which will come with time and experience.
Earlier in the game, he shapes to play the inside runner before re-adjusting to play outside, showing he is prepared to progress through different options and make the decision late.
After picking up a loose ball he assesses the cross field kick quickly but then fires a long skip pass.
Attacking the goal line he skips to the outside, turning in the outside defender before throwing the cutout at exactly the right time. Ulster’s Number 8 Jean Deysel plants and turns in thinking Carbery will run exactly as he loads up to pass. It’s a beautiful double-pump and floated ball for Peter O’Mahoney to score in the corner.
Getting comfortable on top of the line takes time to develop and requires absolute precision from the players around you. Any minor errors in timing or spacing by support players can throw off a move. The playmaker has to possess the innate ability to make correct reads, experience to know when to square up just the right moment, and the Dutch courage to take a shot while vulnerable.
Carbery has the full bag of tricks, but is not the finished product yet.
Against Leinster, the window of opportunity will be much smaller, the line speed will be faster and the hits are going to be harder. It will be a great chance for Carbery to test himself and duel Sexton for the first time, but don’t expect the master to be outdone by the apprentice just yet.
Comments on RugbyPass
Definitely sound read everybodyexpects immediate results these days, I don't think any team would travel well at all having lost three of the most important game changers in the game,compiled with the massive injury list they are now carrying, good to see a different more in depth perspective of a coaches history.
3 Go to commentsSinckler is a really big loss for English rugby.
1 Go to commentsThanks Nick The loss of players to OS, injury and retirement is certainly not helping the Crusaders. Ditto the coach. IMO Penny is there to hold the fort and cop the flak until new players and a new coach come through,…and that's understood and accepted by Penny and the Crusaders hierarchy. I think though that what is happening with the Crusaders is an indicator of what is happening with the other NZ SRP teams…..and the other SRP teams for that matter. Not enough money. The money has come via the SR competition and it’s not there anymore. It's in France, Japan and England. Unless or until something is done to make SR more SELLABLE to the NZ/Australia Rugby market AND the world rugby market the $s to keep both the very best players and the next rung down won't be there. They will play away from NZ more and more. I think though that NZ will continue to produce the players and the coaches of sufficient strength for NZ to have the capacity to stay at the top. Whether they do stay at the top as an international team will depend upon whether the money flowing to SRP is somehow restored, or NZ teams play in the Japan comp, or NZ opts to pick from anywhere. As a follower of many sports I’d have to say that the organisation and promotion of Super Rugby has been for the last 20 years closest to the worst I’ve ever seen. This hasn't necessarily been caused by NZ, but it’s happened. Perhaps it can be fixed, perhaps not. The Crusaders are I think a symptom of this, not the cause
11 Go to commentsNo way. If you are trying to picture New Zealand rugby with an All Blacks mindset, there have been two factors instrumental to the decline of NZ rugby to date. Those are the horror that the Blues have become and, probably more so, the fixture that the Crusaders became. I don’t think it was healthy to have one team so dominant for so long, both for lack of proper representation of players from outside that environment and on the over reliance on players from within it. If you are another international side, like Ireland for example, sure. You can copy paste something succinct from one level to the next and experience a huge increase in standards, but ultimately you will not be maximizing it, which is what you need to perform to the level the ABs do. Added to that is the apathy that develops in the whole game as a result of one sides dominance. NZ, Super, and Championship rugby should all experience a boom as a result of things balancing out. That said, there is a lot of bad news happening in NZ rugby recently, and I’m not sure the game can be handled well enough here to postpone the always-there feeling of inevitable decline of rugby.
11 Go to commentsNo SA supporter miss Super Rugby - a product that is experiencing significant head wind in ANZ - the competition from rival codes are intense, match attendance figures are at a historical low and the negativity of commentators such as Kirwan and Wilson have accelerated the downward spiral in NZ. After the next RWC in 2027 sponsors will follow Qantas and start leaving in droves.
2 Go to commentsLike others, I am not seeing the connection between this edition of the Crusaders and the All Blacks future prospects under Razor. I think the analysis of the Crusaders attack recently is helpful because Razor and his coaching team used to be able to slot new guys in to their systems and see them succeed. Several of Razor’s coaches are still there so it would be surprising if the current attack and set piece has been overhauled to a great extent - but based on that analysis, it may have been. Whether it is too many new guys due to injuries or retirement or a failure of current Crusaders systems is the main question to be answered imo. It doesn’t seem relevant for the ABs.
11 Go to commentsharry potter is set in stone. he creates stability and finishes well. exactly what schmidt likes. he’s the ben smith of australian rugby. i think it could quite easily be potter toole and kellaway for the foreseeable future.
5 Go to commentsThis is short sighted from Clayton if you ask me, smacks of too much preseason planning and no adaptability. What if DMac is out for a must win match, are they still only going to bring their best first five and playmaker on late in the game? Trusting the game to someone who wasn’t even part of planning (they would have had Trask pinned in as Jacomb preseason). Perhaps if the Crusaders were better they would not have done this, but either way imo you take this opportunity to play a guy you might need starting in a final rather than having their 12th game getting comfortable coming off the bench.
1 Go to commentsThanks Brett.. At last a positive article on the potential of Wallaby candidates, great to read. Schmidt’s record as an international rugby coach speaks for itself, I’m somewhat confident he will turn the Wallaby’s fortunes around …. on the field. It will be up to others to steady the ship off the paddock. But is there a flaw in my optimism? We have known all along that Australia has the players to be very competitive with their international rivals. We know that because everyone keeps telling us. So why the poor results? A question that requires a definitive answer before the turn around can occur. Joe Schmidt signed on for 2 years, time to encompass the Lions tour of 2025. By all accounts he puts family first and that’s fair enough, but I would wager that his 2 year contract will be extended if the next 18 months or so shows the statement “Australia has the players” proves to be correct. The new coach does not have a lot of time to meld together an outfit that will be competitive in the Rugby Championship - it will be interesting to see what happens. It will be interesting to see what happens with Giteau law, the new Wallaby coach has already verbalised that he would to prefer to select from those who play their rugby in Australia. His first test in charge is in July just over 3 months away .. not a long time. I for one wish him well .. heaven knows Australia needs some positive vibes.
21 Go to commentsWhat a load of bollocks. The author has forgotten to mention the fact that the Crusaders have a huge injury toll with top world class players out. Not to mention the fact that they are obviously in a transition period. No this will not spark a slow death for NZ rugby, but it does mean there will be a new Super Rugby champion. Anyone who knows anything about NZ rugby knows that there is some serious talent here, it just isn’t all at the Crusaders.
11 Go to commentsI wouldn’t spend the time on Nawaqanitawase! No point in having him filling in a jersey when he’s committed to leave Union. Give the jersey to a young prospect who will be here in the future.
5 Go to commentsIt was a pleasure to watch those guys playing with such confidence. That trio can all be infuriating for different reasons and I can see why Jones might have decided against them. No way to justify leaving Ikitau out though. Jorgensen and him were both scheduled to return at the same time. Only one of them plays for Randwick and has a dad who is great mates with the national coach though.
53 Go to commentsBrayden Iose and Peter Lakai are very exciting Super Rugby players but are too short and too light to ever be a Test 8 vs South Africa, France, Ireland, and England, Lakai could potentially be a Test player at 7 if he is allowed to focus on 7 for Hurricanes.
7 Go to commentsPencils “Thomas du Toit” into possible 2027 Bok squad.
1 Go to commentsDon’t see why Harrison makes the bench. Jones can play at 10 if needed, and there is a good case for starting her there to begin with if testing combinations. That would leave room for Sing on the bench
1 Go to commentsWhat a load of old bull!
1 Go to commentsOf the rugby I’ve born witness to in my lifetime - 1990 to date - I recognize great players throughout those years. But I have no doubt the game and the players are on average better today. So I doubt going back further is going to prove me wrong. The technical components of the game, set pieces, scrums, kicks, kicks at goal. And in general tactics employed are far more efficient, accurate and polished. Professional athletes that have invested countless hours on being accurate. There is one nation though that may be fairly competitive in any era - and that for me is the all blacks. And New Zealand players in general. NZ produces startling athletes who have fantastic ball skills. And then the odd phenomenon like Brooke. Lomu. Mcaw. Carter. Better than comparing players and teams across eras - I’ve often had this thought - that it would be very interesting to have a version of the game that is closer to its original form. What would the game look like today if the rules were rolled back. Not rules that promote safety obviously - but rules like: - a try being worth 1 point and conversion 2 points. Hence the term “try”. Earning a try at goals. Would we see more attacking play? - no lifting in the lineouts. - rucks and break down laws in general. They looked like wrestling matches in bygone eras. I wonder what a game applying 1995 rules would look like with modern players. It may be a daft exercise, but it would make for an interesting spectacle celebrating “purer” forms of the game that roll back the rules dramatically by a few versions. Would we come to learn that some of the rules/combinations of the rules we see today have actually made the game less attractive? I’d love to see an exhibition match like that.
29 Go to commentsIrish Rugby CEO be texting Andy Farrell “Andy, i found our next Kiwi Irishman”
5 Go to commentsI certainly don’t miss drinking beers at 8am in the morning watching rugby games being played in NZ.
2 Go to commentsThis looks like a damage limitation exercise for Wales, keeping back some of their more effective players for the last 20/25 minutes to try and counter England’s fresh legs so the Red Roses don’t rack up a big score.
2 Go to comments