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Africa 2 Pre-Season Odds: New Hope and Ongoing Disaster
Our stats guru Paul Neazor predicts who will flourish and who will flounder in the Africa 2 conference this Super Rugby season.
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This year’s Super Rugby is confusing at the best of times. There are two Groups, including one called ‘Africa’ that features teams from Asia and South America, an extremely convoluted schedule, a new team that’s pretty much the Argentinian national team, a Japanese side that hosts its home games in Singapore, and an inexplicable lack of live animal mascots.
A full explainer is here, but to get your bearings on the competition, the main thing to focus on is the conferences. There are four of them – Australia, New Zealand, Africa 1, and Africa 2 – and the winner of each will be rewarded with home field advantage in the quarter-finals. For our pre-season odds, we decided to rank the teams in those conferences by how good they’re going to be, and where they’re likely to end up at the end of the season.
Jaguares: TAB odds $13 to win competition, equal 8th favourite
Unlike the other newcomers in 2016, the Jaguares have some chances of success although winning the whole thing will probably be beyond them. For a start, they have access to test players from one of the better teams going around international rugby and a lot of their charter players are well known on the biggest stages. They’re also in a pool that isn’t too hard. But from the two African conferences, only three teams will go through to the playoffs and the Jaguares will have to adjust to a gruelling travel schedule and the demands of weekly games . Expect them to be tough opposition, especially at home, but the season-long grind might take them out before the playoffs. Still, the new boys will be a side to take seriously.
After 17 weeks the Jaguares will be: A lot more experienced than they were. And they may be in the playoffs
Kings: TAB odds $151 to win competition, 17th favourite
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What a surprise – the Kings are in a mess and it’s hard to see them getting out bar a rich benefactor riding to the rescue. As a result the team is not strong, its chances are poor and that ain’t going to change in a hurry. Even at Currie Cup level the Kings haven’t performed. They could be quoted at any old price to win the competition because they won’t do it. The Kings should be better than the Sunwolves, but that’s no recommendation that they actually belong in Super Rugby. I doubt the TAB will be holding a single cent on their winning the whole thing, and that wouldn’t change if the odds were moved out to 1500-1.
After 17 weeks the Kings will be: In disarray. Sadly, some things don’t change
Lions: TAB odds $31 to win competition, 12th favourite
If there is one team that I think may ambush the unwary and go deep into the competition at long odds, it’s the Lions. After a decade of being the team everyone rested its stars against and still walloped by 40 points, the Lions have got things back on track over the last couple of years, albeit quietly. In 2015 they won three of four on the road, rectifying what has been a major failing since Super Rugby started. They win at home – often ugly, but so what. And now, with the South African conferences being diluted and shrunk, they have a fairly easy run to the playoffs. The Lions have virtually no player churn from last year, much like the Highlanders, and they will be suited by the new bonus point rules. A couple of Currie Cups in the last three years will help the confidence too. Don’t ignore these guys as semi-final contenders, especially if they’re at home in the playoffs.
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After 17 weeks the Lions will be: Surprising a lot of people as they emerge as one of the best African teams
Sharks: TAB odds $13 to win competition, equal 8th favourite
The only reason the Sharks are so highly fancied is because somebody has to qualify from South Africa and they are one of the stronger teams in the Republic. But they’ve lost a ton of talent since 2015. Almost all the veterans have gone now, as the rand slides against every major currency and European gigs look better and better. Replacements are mostly of good Currie Cup standard although a couple are better than that. The Sharks were a team built to win the competition in 2013 when they completely missed out on the final and after that, it was too late. The Sharks are now a couple of years at least away from being able to mount a serious challenge, especially since their MASH tent is full to overflowing after two matches in France. As the casualties are all key men out for the bulk of the seasons, and I can’t see how they’re going to replace the injured Patrick Lambie, I don’t see the Sharks as a real threat, even under the new format.
After 17 weeks the Sharks will be: Possibly in the eight. Possibly not. Depends on the Jaguares
Comments on RugbyPass
What a dagg in more ways than one
5 Go to commentsRegroup come back next year but sack some of the coaching team and don't be like the ABs last minute sacking. If Crusaders don't do well ABs don't do well.
5 Go to commentsProctor Definitely inform again this year had a hell of a season last year and this year is looking even better. Still mixed feelings about Ioane tho.
4 Go to commentsDagg is still trying to get enough headlines to make himself relevant enough to get a job. The Crusaders went back to square one at all levels. Shelve this season and nail the next one.
5 Go to commentsHe was in such great form. Sad for him but only a short term injury and it will be great to see him back for the finals.
1 Go to commentsAfter their 5/0 start, I had the Crusaders to finish Top 4 only…they lost the plot in Perth but will reload and back themselves vs 4th placed Rebels…
5 Go to commentsBoth nations missed a great opportunity to book a game that would have had a lot of interest from around the world. I understand these games can’t be organised in 5 minutes but they should have found a way to make it happen. I don’t think Wales are ducking anyone but it’s a bad look haha.
3 Go to commentsIt will be fascinating to see the effect that Jo Yapp has. If they can compete with Canada and give BFs a run for their money that will be progress
1 Go to commentsFollowing his dream and putting in the work. Go well young fella!
3 Go to commentsPerhaps filling Twickenham is one of Mitchell’s KPIs. I doubt whether both September matches will be at Twickenham on consecutive weekends. I would take the BF one to a large provincial stadium so as not to give them the advantage and experience of playing at Twickenham before a large crowd prior to the RWC.
3 Go to commentsvery unfortunate for Kitshoff, but big opportunity potentially for Nché to prove he is genuinely the best loosehead in the world, rather than just a specialist finisher. Presuming that if Kitshoff is out, it will also give Steenekamp a chance to come into the 23? Or are others likely to be ahead of him?
1 Go to commentsA long held question in popular culture asks if art imitates life or does the latter influence the former? Over this 6 nations I can ask the same question of the media influencing the thoughts of its audience or vice versa. Nobody wants to see cricket scores in rugby, as a spectacle it is not sustainable. With so many articles about England’s procession and lack of competition it feeds the epicaricacy of many looking for an opportunity to pounce. England are not the first team to dominate nor does it happen only in rugby, think Federer, Nadal, Red Bull or Mercedes, Manchester Utd, Australia in tests and World Cups. Instead of celebrating the achievements why find reasons to falsify it pointing towards larger playing pool, professional for a longer period or mitigate with the lack of growth in other nations. Can we not enjoy it while it is here and know that it won’t last for ever, others coveting what England have will soon take the crown, ask the aforementioned?
6 Go to commentsShame he won’t turn out for the Netherlands now they’re improving. U20s are Euro champs and in the U20 Trophy this year. The senior sides gets better every year too.
3 Go to commentsWill rugbypass tv be showing these games?
1 Go to commentsWell where do you start, the fact that England have a professional domestic league and Ireland’s is fully amatuer, that they have fully seperated professional squads at Fifteens and Sevens (7’s thinly disguised as GB), and Ireland have fully pro Sevens squad who loan some players back to the Semi-Professional Fifteens squad (moved from amateur for only a year or so) for a few games at 6N & RWC’s. The Women’s games is a shambles, and is at risk of killing itself by pushing for professionalism when the market isn’t really there to support it outside one or two countnries..
6 Go to commentsWayne Smith's input didn't have as much impact on the last final as Davison's red card for Thompson. England were 14 points up and flying when that happened.
6 Go to commentsBilly's been playing consistently well for 2 - 3 seasons now and deserves a look in at the top level. Ioane and ALB are still first choice but there needs to be injury cover and succession. His partnership with Jordie gives him first dibs you'd think. Go the Hurricanes.
4 Go to commentsIt’s not up to Wales to support Georgian Rugby. That’s up to International Rugby and Georgia. I sympathise with Georgia’s decent attempt to create this fixture. But for Wales the proposed match up is just a potential stick to beat them with and a potential big psychological blow that young Welsh team doesn’t need. (I’m Irish BTW.)
3 Go to commentsCale certainly looks great in space, but as you say, he has struggled in contact. At 23 years old, turning 24 this year, he should be close to full physical maturity and yet there exists a considerable gap in the power and physicality required for international rugby. Weight doesn’t automatically equate to power and physicality either. Can he go from a player who’s being physically dominated in Super rugby to physically dominating in international rugby in 1 or 2 years? That’s a big ask but he may end up being a late bloomer.
38 Go to commentsIf rugby wants to remain interesting in the AI era then it will need to work on changing the rules. AI will reduce the tactical advantage of smart game plans, will neutralize primary attacking weapons, and will move rugby from a being a game of inches to a game of millimetres. It will be about sheer athleticism and technique,about avoiding mistakes, and about referees. Many fans will find that boring. The answer is to add creative degrees of freedom to the game. The 50-22 is an example. But we can have fun inventing others, like the right to add more players for X minutes per game, or the equivalent of the 2-point conversion in American football, the ability to call a 12-player scrum, etc. Not saying these are great ideas, but making the point that the more of these alternatives you allow, the less AI will be able to lock down high-probability strategies. This is not because AI does not have the compute power, but because it has more choices and has less data, or less-specific data. That will take time and debate, but big, positive and immediate impact could be in the area of ref/TMO assistance. The technology is easily good enough today to detect forward passes, not-straight lineouts, offside at breakdown/scrum/lineout, obstruction, early/late tackles, and a lot of other things. WR should be ultra aggressive in doing this, as it will really help in an area in which the game is really struggling. In the long run there needs to be substantial creativity applied to the rules. Without that AI (along with all of the pro innovations) will turn rugby into a bash fest.
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