The two-horse race to become the new head coach of the All Blacks has suddenly become a neck-and-neck affair entering the final furlong. There is no clear winner in sight between Jamie Joseph and Dave Rennie and it may all be decided in a photo-finish. Stopping to pose and smile at the finishing post may prove fatal in a race which may be won on the nod, or in the very last stride.
There has been a noticeable upswell of support for the ex-Chiefs man recently after the Highlanders supremo got an early jump out of the gate. According to a report in The Post, a NZR delegation flew to Japan to interview Rennie after spending time at the Highlanders headquarters with Joseph last week. A recent viewer’s poll on Sky Sport’s The Breakdown suggested a narrow preference for Highlander over Chief but it was close, 55%-45%.
As the either/or choice tightens, Joseph is perceived as the tough hombre who will drive standards hard but may shed a few assistants along the way – Tony Brown now works with the Springboks, Tom Donnelly with the Wallabies and Kendrick Lynn with the Pumas – while Rennie may be the better collaborator and connector, the man who can mobilize the collective will of the assistants around and underneath him.
One of his playing charges at Glasgow, ex-Scotland scrum-half Mike Blair, recently rejoined Rennie in Kobe. Another Glasgow back of the Rennie era, Peter Murchie, was his defence assistant at the Steelers, before being promoted to the full Wales national coaching staff at the invitation of Steve Tandy. Both worked alongside Phil Healey, Rennie’s strength and conditioning maestro at Glasgow and the Chiefs.
If you asked two of the three wise men, Sir Graham Henry and Sir Wayne Smith, even now, they would probably plump for Rennie. ‘Smithy’ worked with him at the Chiefs and ‘Ted’ recommended his promotion after the third member of the trifecta, Sir Steve Hansen retired from international duty at the end of 2019.
Influential ex-All Blacks turned pundits are beginning to see Rennie’s side of the story and filter out the attractions of appointing him to the top job in New Zealand rugby. On The Breakdown ex-Blues hooker James Parsons observed: “Because they’re poles apart it’s really what you’re looking for.
“Off the back of what we’ve seen in terms of the breakdown of the culture and relationships, I do think a Dave Rennie, who brought the Chiefs together and had sustained success [is the better choice].
“Yes, the Wallabies results weren’t great but I do think he was just starting to break through with that side and he was let go. For me, he’s well placed.
“The head coach is one thing but I think it’s the supporting acts and how you make the whole team cover your gaps so it doesn’t become an echo chamber for one person.”
The suggestion the All Blacks head coaching role could become “an echo chamber for one person” once again, is a haunting backwash of the Razor era and NZR will be peculiarly sensitive to any repetition of it.
On the same programme, New Zealand centurion Mils Muliaina implied Rennie and Joseph could work together, but that is the least likely outcome. Both are used too used to being top dog to voluntarily accept demotion to sidekick at this stage of their coaching careers.
The encounter between the Reds and the Highlanders in round three of Super Rugby Pacific encouraged national supporters of the All Blacks and the Wallabies to cast the runes, and run a preview of the men who could be leading their countries into Bledisloe Cup battle later this year. Les Kiss is already confirmed as the head coach of Australia and Joseph may become his antagonist in the trans-Rasman rivalry scheduled to resume on 17 October in Sydney.
There is already one startling similarity between the two clubs after only three rounds of SRP play. Both teams are kicking far more than the tournament mean: 37 times per game for both clubs, 10 kicks more per team per game than the competition average. Joseph’s Highlanders have kicked the furthest and are currently the only franchise to have kicked for more than 1000m per game [1108m].
The biggest difference between the two lay in the quality of defence, and in this aspect of play there were encouraging signs Les Kiss will be able to move the Wallabies on from the archaic practices of the Joe Schmidt era. Before Christmas I observed how the Wallabies clung on to an old-fashioned 12/1/2 defensive system: 12 men in the line, two in the backfield with the scrum-half defending in the zone between the two. This tried-but-not-so-trusted system in the modern era emphasised linkages between defenders, at the cost of aggression.
— William Bishop (@RPvids1994) March 2, 2026
At this lineout from the November game against France, the basic philosophy is obvious from an eagle’s eye view: there are two backfield defenders standing deep, with the defensive front drifting across field to link up with them as play moves to the far sideline. The scrum-half fills the space in between the two, plugging gaps and picking up any short kicks through.
It was this system Eddie Jones felt could be due for improvement with the appointment of Les Kiss, speaking on the Rugby Unity podcast with David Pembroke before Christmas.
“[Les] has always been a more defence-minded coach. He’s always coached the defensive side of the game, so it’ll be interesting to see whether he takes that defensive mindset to the Australian team.
“I think teams either have an identity around defence or identity around attack, and I think the Australian side’s identity has generally been around attack.
“It will only be a subtle shift, and it’s only a nuanced change. But it’ll be interesting to see whether that comes forward, and you’ll maybe see with that a little bit more line-speed from Australia, a bit more aggression, because under [defence coach] Laurie Fisher, he plays that more connected defence – stay connected.
“There’s two ways of going about it. You either go line-speed, or you go connectedness, or you go in between. Australia has tended to be more connected, and Les [may] bring a more aggressive approach with a bit more line-speed, which has its risks, because then you tend to defend a bit narrower, and the outside space can be exposed.”
There were some signs in the game between the Reds and the Highlanders a defence overseen by the new Wallaby head coach could be about to undergo a more aggressive makeover.
— William Bishop (@RPvids1994) March 2, 2026
— William Bishop (@RPvids1994) March 2, 2026
In the first instance, the Reds are defending out of their 12/1/2 from a goalline dropout. Two men stay back, scrum-half Louis Werchon follows play to the base of the first ruck, and the other 12 defenders fan out in and around the breakdown. The difference from the Schmidt era is the Queensland backline is more ready to step forward, build its line speed and employ the spot-blitz, with 12 Hunter Paisami ‘spotting’ the second key receiver for the Highlanders [11 Jona Nareki] and dislodging the ball in the tackle. In the second clip it is the same basic structure, but with Lukhan Salakaia-Loto gimleting the anticipated first receiver and surging aggressively out of the line to take man and ball.
With the Landers behind on the scoreboard and Kalani Thomas on the field for Werchon, the Reds became more even more combative.
— William Bishop (@RPvids1994) March 2, 2026
— William Bishop (@RPvids1994) March 2, 2026
From the first goalline dropout, Thomas does not bother scanning play from behind the base of the first ruck, he joins the front line immediately. In the first screenshot, the Reds are in an aggressive defensive formation with only one defender committed deep and end defender [Harry McLaughlin-Phillips] hedging his bets between the line and the backfield. The extra body or two in the line pays dividends at the breakdown, with a double jackal attempt at the end of the first clip and Filipo Daugunu winning turnover in the second.
In the battle for the All Blacks job, Joseph’s involvement with the Highlanders this season may not work to his advantage, especially if there are more unflattering comparisons of the sort viewed at the Suncorp on Saturday. Thus far, Joseph’s men have scored only eight tries in three games while kicking the leather off the pill. “That’s not New Zealand rugby,” to coin Jeff Wilson’s phrase.
Will-be Wallaby head man Kiss emerged with more credit from his very personal duel, and it looks as if he is primed to up the ante on green-and-gold aggression in defence. When the Reds saw a clear target in their sights at the Suncorp, they stepped up and hit it. It may not prove as watertight as John Muggleton’s impenetrable D at the 1999 World Cup, which did not concede one single try in the knockout stages, but Aussie defence may just be ready to get a bit more filthy with the opposition. It is about bloody time.
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Hallelujah, Nick hallelujah! I hope Laurie Fisher was watching! It’ll be music to my eyes if I see a more aggressive Wallabies team on defence under Les, even if it’s still not as aggressive as I'd like but Friday night was progress.
Bit by bit and step by step Mitch! I wonder who will run the D under Les for the WBs?
I was impressed with Rennie at the wallabies. He was building a tough team from the ground up, steadily improving basics and physicality. They were hanging in there in big games, finishing within one score if they lost. They probably would have made the RWC semi final. Add in the star power we have now (Jorgo, McReight, Sualii, Frost, etc) and i bet they would have been real contenders.
I suspect you may be right. I do feel there some diffs in philosophy between Rennie and the Brumbies coaches, but the team was showing signs of growth - even against Ireland in the November series which finally ‘did’ for DR…
Hi Nick,
From what little I have seen and quite a bit of what I have read Rennie likes to go straight up the middle - playing very direct and dominating quickly both sides of the ball - carrier cleaner distributor. This might be the catalyst to reignite AB scoring from turnover ball. Going to be interesting. I wonder if he had a choice which coach Rassie would prefer to coach against? From a headline POV Rennie vs Rassie has a ring to it.
See next article GVF!😁
Having endured Les Kiss as head coach at Ulster, I don’t think he’ll set the world alight with the Wallabies.
His time at Ulster was awful from a supporter’s point of view. His drift defence was rigidly adhered to and he wasted the talent of several top quality players. He held personal grudges against players who he perceived weren’t following his instructions and at the same time persisted with his personal favourites, even when they weren’t performing.
I haven’t spoken to a single Ulster supporter who was sorry to see the back of him.
I believe Rennie’s ABs can be the dominant team, well capable of matching the South African juggernaut.
Some coaches are known to learn more stuff over time
Rennie was very poor coaching the Wallabies. He asked Bernard Foley to come back from Japan to play 10 but Foley knocked him back because even Foley didn’t think he was up to it.
So Quade Cooper who was in Australia at the time offered his services and Rennie had to eat humble pie and accept. You could see in the sheds video at half time in the next few games that it was in fact Quade Cooper who was running the team not Rennie and they beat the Springboks. Which flattered Rennie’s very unflattering record.
NZ will greatly regret Rennie without Smith, or Joseph without Brown. Joseph is showing no signs of brilliant coaching at the Highlanders. They should have tried to just upskill Robertson.
And yet Rennie’s record is basically the same Joe Schmidt’s with Aussie, and both are better than Eddie Jones in his second term. Which suggests that the problem was with the players/infrastructure available - the coaches, not so much.
The players all seemed to like him? I can’t recall any of them publicly criticising him only Hamish Maclennan. And your Foley comment is odd, didn’t he bring back Foley when he made the infamous time wasting free kick which lost us the bledisloe test match? Agree some of his selections were odd but we did have some success under Rennie
About bloody time is a perfect finish. About time Oz rugby made some progress! You’ve always admired Josh floor- does he run the Reds backs defence? He and Paisami seem to connect well.
If the reds could have an off week this week vs Brumbies that’d be great though. Was also great to see Carter Gordon back - a few errors as expected but he’s a 10 that likes to run the ball like Meredith at Brumbies. Good to see
I think that Carter-Hunter-Josh midfield has some real potential DW. It’s physical enough and has some contrasting skill-sets!
One wonders if Rennie got the job whether Wayne Smith might have been an option as an assistant again. They were brilliant together at the Chiefs. Alas, that is ship has also sailed with the prof alienated by the new broom. The NZR clean out is probably overdue, but we also look to have replaced a misguided regime with a dysfunctional one at the moment. You’d also have to look at the early results of SRP and the exodus of “next-tier” players and think we are looking at a potential power shift down under. Australia is producing some brilliant players at the moment. Jorgensen has a touch of C Cullen about him (unbelievable player). Charlie Cale looks like a young Keiren Reid, players like Salakai-loto are coming of age. They have prospects at 10, world class midfielders and depth building in other positions. Real cross-Tasman competition will be good for the ABs, but I suspect our fans might need to start preparing to eat more pie in the coming years.
With Rens now All Black Coach, I expect the A B’s will be up to speed quickly JB.
I felt if Rennie had been given full support he could have done a decent job at the 2023 world cup. At his best the Wallabies looked great under him and even that tour before he got sacked we won 2 and lost 3. The 3 losses were close and better than our 2025 tour! So in all I think Rennie is a good coach and wouldn’t have the bs that he had here following him. “We need an aussie blah blah blah”
Smithy has always historically found it very hard to resist the ABs clarion call, and it’s easy to see him being involved again if Rennie asked.
I do agree however that the contest between Aussie and NZ is going to be closer than for many years in 2026 - both at national level and in SRP.
The change-up in our defensive model is long overdue. For all that Fisher brings to sides’ breakdown work, his stubbornness about how we defend kept us in the dark ages. Happy to see a change.
A performance like this one makes me wonder again how Joe persisted in not picking LSL last year. The Reds’ talisman - when a big carry or hit was needed, it was invariably he who provided it.
What was behind LSL flashing his midriff when he came off ? Schmidt telling him he was overweight and not fit enough as an excuse for not picking him, which was unforgiveable.
LSL looks scary, serious athlete. Such a good player. I keep hoping Tupi Vaa’i will bulk up a bit ( and stop with the hair tussling nonsense). Apart from an aging and injury prone Patty T, I don’t see us producing athletes like that at the moment.
Agreed. He has consistently played well since last year. Joe has some stubborn views
LSL is the natural successor to Big Will DM, and I hope he gets the chance to prove it this season.
Nice analysis, the Reds certainly looked very connected in defense against the Highlanders. In terms of time frame, Rennie makes more sense a contract until the end of the World Cup. Then if he wins it, he continues and if not Joseph + Brown could be available.
Kiwi teams absolutely hate rush defences. They are so used to dominating and not being confronted they have yet to accept that era may be over.
The Reds in general were very poor and sloppy against the Highlanders. Kiss has yet to be able to coach a hard ruthless edge to them.
Rennie seems to have the extra push behind him right now and that appointment would make a lot of sense. I’ve always felt they really want JJ is he can bring TB with him!