When I penned this preview at the outset of the Six Nations, it finished with the words “get ready for a surprise. Expect the unexpected”. Truly, I did not realise just how deep the rabbit-hole would go. The tournament has provided one reverberating shock after another, like a seismic chain reaction along rugby’s equivalent of the San Andreas Fault.
Ireland reversed the dire warnings of terminal decline by shattering England by 40 points at Twickenham, in the process returning to their accustomed role as title challengers on the final weekend of competition. England overwhelmed Wales only to lose their next three matches and post a historic loss to the Azzurri in Rome in round four. From sitting pretty in his armchair as a ‘made’ man with 12 wins on the bounce, a contract is suddenly out on Steve Borthwick’s head.
France appeared to be on an irresistible march, en colonne d’attaque towards a Grand Slam, scoring 18 tries and 123 points in the first three rounds of play, only to come a cropper last weekend at Murrayfield, shipping 50 points into the bargain. The only constant in the tournament has been second-rate, unremarkable Wales, for heaven’s sake.
This time around there is a very real danger the western edge of California will fall into the Pacific Ocean. And for the first time in recent memory, Scotland have a realistic chance to find themselves the beneficiaries of a wholly unstable rugby system in the north, the proud owners of an all-new coastline of prime real estate in the Six Nations.
Les Bleus looked in rare bloom before the match at Murrayfield, having regenerated successfully from a disastrous November loss to the Springboks. They were even touted in some quarters as the best team in the world on the basis of their three crushing victories over Ireland, Wales and Italy.
All those rumours were quashed on a memorable afternoon in Murrayfield, as the Scots scored seven tries and 50 points to put the tournament favourites to the sword, or rather the claymore. It was beautiful butchery, and it could have been a whole lot worse. There was an extra edge to the Edinburgh encounter. Even before the game, there were complaints about the size of the ‘away’ changing sheds from Fabien Galthie.
“Scotland play in one of the Six Nations’ exceptional stadiums, Murrayfield. The changing room is the smallest in the world. You have to get changes in the corridors – one has to say things as they are.
“That sets the mood. We’ve often asked if they could give us the room next door, [but] we haven’t had it. So, we keep getting changed in the corridors, for an international match. The referees’ changing room is bigger.”
After the game, the shadow cast by Les Bleus had lengthened, with allegations of an eye-gouge by flanker Oscar Jégou during the match, and a sulk by the best player in the world, with Antoine Dupont allegedly refusing to shake the hand of his opposite number Ben White after it.
Oscar Jegou dans la tourmente après ce ralenti qui montre une suspicion de fourchette sur le talonneur écossais Ewan Ashman.
Réponse dans les prochaines heures/prochains jours sur une éventuelle convocation devant une commission de discipline. pic.twitter.com/nTF1TseTyw
— Gauthier Baudin (@GauthierBaudin) March 7, 2026
For Galthié’s France, the problem remains the same as it was in the 2025 Six Nations. Les Bleus are not finding ways to win crunch matches away from home. Last year it was Twickenham, this year it is Murrayfield. Last July, they passed up a golden opportunity to beat the All Blacks on their patch in a three-Test series.
Yes, the political balance between the LNR and FRR had to be respected in the process of squad selection for that tour, but it not doing the national side any favours, and it will be the same again at the Nations Championship this summer. On July 4 and July 11 France will be facing the All Blacks and the Wallabies on two consecutive weekends without their top players, most of whom are likely to be involved in the Top 14 final on 27 June. You only learn to be the best by beating the best consistently – especially in their own back yard.
The assessments by both parties in the aftermath of events in the Scottish capital were fair. As Australia-born centre and skipper Sione Tuipulotu observed: “We were ourselves out there. We were aggressive with our play-calling, [when] we had penalties, we didn’t take threes, we went to the corner and we pressed the issue with a good French team. I felt like we lived and died by our identity today.”
Galthié added: “it is normal for the Scots to win this match. They played a great match. They took us [out] in the basics of rugby.”
The basics of rugby in the modern era are the skills applied in contact situations, and there can be as many as 250 of these occurring in a top-level game, roughly three every minute. Franco Smith’s league-leading Glasgow Warriors, who provide the spine of the national team, build the most rucks in the URC with 110 per game, and Townsend’s Scotland set an average of 121 at the 2025 Six Nations. That was a massive 22 more rucks per game than the next team.
Scotland averaged five rucks lost per game in the same competition last season, but on a sunny Saturday afternoon at Murrayfield they only lost one in 128. There is huge difference between losing one ruck in every 24 attempts set, and losing one in 128 against a very good jackaling and counter-ruck defence like that run by Shaun Edwards. That is what it means to take out your opponent in the rugby basics, and to live and die by your own identity, wearing the thistle and the dark navy blue.
Scotland’s performance was a welcome breath of fresh air, and a pleasurable push in the back for possession footy in a tournament which initially looked likely to be dominated by the boot and the battle of the airwaves. There were only 42 kicks launched into orbit, and that meant it was Scotland who were effectively establishing the ground-rules of play.
The ball-in-play time at Murrayfield was exactly the same as in France’s opening round game against Ireland at 39 minutes; but whereas at the Stade de France there were 80 kicks compared to 190 rucks built, in Edinburgh that ratio had changed to 42 kicks to 203 rucks. There is a big difference in aerobic demands between a 39-minute game where the ruck-to-kick ratio is 5:1 rather than 2.5:1, and Scotland waxed as France waned off the back of that change.
Scotland prevailed in all the KPIs of contact:
- 128 rucks set to France’s 75, with one pilfer apiece
- Scotland forced their opponents to make an extra 80 tackles
- 84% of Scottish metres gained came after first contact with a defender, compared to 57% by France
- Scotland won the penalty count at the tackle area by six pens to two
- Scotland made twice the number of offloads compared to France [12 against 6]
If you are a possession-based team, those are all stats to gladden the heart.
Townsend’s men made at least half a dozen saves at the kind of counter-ruck scenarios where France have made so much profit in this Six Nations.
— William Bishop (@RPvids1994) March 8, 2026
Right wing Darcy Graham takes a negative tackle and Les Bleus are primed to turn over the ball and play back with a lethal counter, but it is the arrival of three Scottish backs – 15 Blair Kinghorn, 13 Huw Jones and 10 Finn Russell – which stabilises the situation. When your primary playmaker is willing to make that kind of commitment in contact, you know you are on to a winner.
The other big item on Townsend’s attacking menu in contact was the use of the offload when the ball-carrier was potentially exposed to turnover.
— William Bishop (@RPvids1994) March 8, 2026
— William Bishop (@RPvids1994) March 8, 2026
— William Bishop (@RPvids1994) March 8, 2026
There are a total of five significant offloads – between Jack Dempsey and Pierre Schoeman at 4:19, between Russell and Graham at 4:37 in the first clip; between Kyle Steyn and Matt Fagerson at 57:02, and Fagerson and Ben White a couple of seconds later in the second; and between Kinghorn and Graham at 58:29 in the third – which fan the attacking flames at moments when they could be doused.
It was the expert control and management of the contact zone which enabled quick ruck ball and the ability to push the ball wide-wide in the first three phases from set-piece, and go wide-wide-wide within five.
— William Bishop (@RPvids1994) March 8, 2026
Scotland’s word-perfect sermon in the contact area was probably the most complete performance by any possession-based international team since vintage Ireland 2022-23, with Johnny Sexton banging the bible from his pulpit.
Scotland controlled the French jackaling and counter-ruck threat, chose when to set the ruck or offload, and laid a sun-soaked platform from which Russell could display his attacking wares. It has deservedly set them up for a potential championship decider.
Les Bleus still remain favourites to win the title while falling again at the hurdle which has proven so problematic over the last couple of seasons. When can we expect Galthié’s France to overcome the top teams on their own turf, and knock them off one after another without fear or favour? We are no closer to knowing the answer to that question now than we were at the beginning of 2025.
It can join a host of conundrums thrown up by the most surprising, shock-filled Six Nations of recent years. Where will England’s sudden death spiral end? Can Scotland win their first championship for 27 years? Can Italy win more games than they lose and finish in the top half of the table? When will Wales ever win another match? In the last round, as in all of the others, expect the unexpected.
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The reffing of the use it ruck and no late joining really helps keep the tempo up and both thru tactics and necessity Scotland kept French D line wonky I applaud Galthie pack selections for the way they have been playing but I do wonder if a bit more size brute force balance would serve them better to bully the Scot’s and win some more collisions especially earlier in the game with the greyhound’s coming on later
Yes, it’s always easy to say after the fact but I think Galthié will make this takeaway from the match. Unfortunately Flament couldn’t start because he had a niggle at the beginning of the week but I fully expect him to be back in the number 4 jersey against England.
No WestCoast falling into the Pacific. I’m four miles from the Pacific! 😳
Even though I’m visiting Buenos Aires this week.
By the way, just a little while ago Borthwick was awesome and Townsend should have been fired…. Oh well. What do we know?
And don’t forget Ireland were hopeless and were going to finish near the bottom of the 6N Carlos!😉
This is an excellent article.Nic. It matches the rugby Scotland played and also matches the hangover I inflicted on myself in celebration. My only whinge about this 6N is the cost to my pocket from all the celebrations.
At least that is the very best way to spend your money Fran! Rejoice😇
A pattern is emerging across the 6N teams - the yellow card is having a massive effect - by my count 3-4 converted tries scored while France one man down and Scotland 2 converted tries after Bayliss goes off. Prior to the yellows and it’s almost blow for blow. Take them out the game and France wins. Similar impact seen in England’s games against Italy, Scotland and Ireland. What does this tell us NB about the structures the NH teams are playing too. Are they so spread thin that one link missing and they fold?
It was the Scotland ball control which produced the pens and yellow cards which resulted from them, so quite an organic process really. Jalibert’s was repeat offences at the tackle/offside for example. I like it when that happens. You squeeze the orange until the pips pop out.
“…and a sulk by the best player in the world, with Antoine Dupont allegedly refusing to shake the hand of his opposite number Ben White after it.”
That’s unfair on Dupont. White screamed in his face after Dupont’s mistake for the Steyn second try. Then when the Scottish players were supposed to be clapping the French players in a tunnel, White made a dramatic faux gesture to shake Dupont’s hand and started mocking Dupont again after. No issue with Dupont ignoring that.
After the try from the 5m scrum, Russell who was 5 metres away walked over to Dupont who was after tackling Jordan. He stepped over him and dragged his hind foot up against him. Clearly they had targeted Dupont for this behaviour. I do hope they try this sh1t in Dublin.
(Also, let’s hope they don’t face France in a K/O in the RWC ‘27)
That try shouldn’t have stood by the way, it was clearly touched by White forward and should’ve been called back for a French scrum. You could see with the way the ball was spinning towards Steyn, I’m surprised the TMO didn’t spot this.
You don’t like the Scots much do you EE?😉
Incredible from Scotland and their pressure made France look average. Dupont looked like he was on his first test cap at times which is a huge compliment to them.
But…they still don't have the balance for me. 50 PTS on this French team will always get the headlines but they still shipped 40 PTS. And 26 PTS down the home stretch which was very soft
I do think that will be getting Townsends full attention in the prep for Saturday
A poor first halve against Italy and Wales, brilliant there after. 6 brilliant halves of rugby from 8 so far. I fully expect them to turn up in Dublin
Ben White certainly won his individual battle with Dupont hands-down - maybe he benefit of his experience at Toulon?
Far more weight should be given to the 50 points scored surely? When was the last time a Shaun Edwards D gave up that many points in a game?
The game was won at 40-14 and 47-21 so the 40 doesn’t matter so much!
Seeing how much joy the victory gave ITA was brilliant - the fans, the players, the coaches. It’s been a long time coming but was thoroughly deserved. 👏👏👏
As you feared would transpire and from some way out PM!
I have to say, I thought that was the best EVER game I have seen SCO play. They were absolutely brilliant and FRA didn’t an answer to it. 👏👏👏
Their comeback from 31-0 down at half time in 2019 to finish 38-38 would run it close for being so unexpected.
Yes it must be the best game by Scot under GT.
Lovely stuff, thanks Nick. What a joyful game it can be, played with that sort of verve in front of a full crowd in the sunlight.
Three weeks is a long time in the life of a top tier rugby coach - compare Gregor’s trajectory to that of Borthwick.
Exactly DM, 90 points in the sun, who could ask for more?
SB is under under pressure now, but so was Townsend after Italy and Farrell after France. Fickle fans🤣😉