LONG READ Six Nations analysis: How France's Grand Slam chasers were beaten black and bleu at Murrayfield

When I penned this preview at the outset of the Six Nations, it finished with the words “get ready for a surprise. Expect the unexpected”. Truly, I did not realise just how deep the rabbit-hole would go. The tournament has provided one reverberating shock after another, like a seismic chain reaction along rugby’s equivalent of the San Andreas Fault.

Ireland reversed the dire warnings of terminal decline by shattering England by 40 points at Twickenham, in the process returning to their accustomed role as title challengers on the final weekend of competition. England overwhelmed Wales only to lose their next three matches and post a historic loss to the Azzurri in Rome in round four. From sitting pretty in his armchair as a ‘made’ man with 12 wins on the bounce, a contract is suddenly out on Steve Borthwick’s head.

France appeared to be on an irresistible march, en colonne d’attaque towards a Grand Slam, scoring 18 tries and 123 points in the first three rounds of play, only to come a cropper last weekend at Murrayfield, shipping 50 points into the bargain. The only constant in the tournament has been second-rate, unremarkable Wales, for heaven’s sake.

This time around there is a very real danger the western edge of California will fall into the Pacific Ocean. And for the first time in recent memory, Scotland have a realistic chance to find themselves the beneficiaries of a wholly unstable rugby system in the north, the proud owners of an all-new coastline of prime real estate in the Six Nations.

Les Bleus looked in rare bloom before the match at Murrayfield, having regenerated successfully from a disastrous November loss to the Springboks. They were even touted in some quarters as the best team in the world on the basis of their three crushing victories over Ireland, Wales and Italy.

All those rumours were quashed on a memorable afternoon in Murrayfield, as the Scots scored seven tries and 50 points to put the tournament favourites to the sword, or rather the claymore. It was beautiful butchery, and it could have been a whole lot worse. There was an extra edge to the Edinburgh encounter. Even before the game, there were complaints about the size of the ‘away’ changing sheds from Fabien Galthie.

“Scotland play in one of the Six Nations’ exceptional stadiums, Murrayfield. The changing room is the smallest in the world. You have to get changes in the corridors – one has to say things as they are.

“That sets the mood. We’ve often asked if they could give us the room next door, [but] we haven’t had it. So, we keep getting changed in the corridors, for an international match. The referees’ changing room is bigger.”

After the game, the shadow cast by Les Bleus had lengthened, with allegations of an eye-gouge by flanker Oscar Jégou during the match, and a sulk by the best player in the world, with Antoine Dupont allegedly refusing to shake the hand of his opposite number Ben White after it.

Oscar Jegou dans la tourmente après ce ralenti qui montre une suspicion de fourchette sur le talonneur écossais Ewan Ashman.

Réponse dans les prochaines heures/prochains jours sur une éventuelle convocation devant une commission de discipline. pic.twitter.com/nTF1TseTyw

— Gauthier Baudin (@GauthierBaudin) March 7, 2026

For Galthié’s France, the problem remains the same as it was in the 2025 Six Nations. Les Bleus are not finding ways to win crunch matches away from home. Last year it was Twickenham, this year it is Murrayfield. Last July, they passed up a golden opportunity to beat the All Blacks on their patch in a three-Test series.

Yes, the political balance between the LNR and FRR had to be respected in the process of squad selection for that tour, but it not doing the national side any favours, and it will be the same again at the Nations Championship this summer. On July 4 and July 11 France will be facing the All Blacks and the Wallabies on two consecutive weekends without their top players, most of whom are likely to be involved in the Top 14 final on 27 June. You only learn to be the best by beating the best consistently – especially in their own back yard.

The assessments by both parties in the aftermath of events in the Scottish capital were fair. As Australia-born centre and skipper Sione Tuipulotu observed: “We were ourselves out there. We were aggressive with our play-calling, [when] we had penalties, we didn’t take threes, we went to the corner and we pressed the issue with a good French team. I felt like we lived and died by our identity today.”

Galthié added: “it is normal for the Scots to win this match. They played a great match. They took us [out] in the basics of rugby.”

The basics of rugby in the modern era are the skills applied in contact situations, and there can be as many as 250 of these occurring in a top-level game, roughly three every minute. Franco Smith’s league-leading Glasgow Warriors, who provide the spine of the national team, build the most rucks in the URC with 110 per game, and Townsend’s Scotland set an average of 121 at the 2025 Six Nations. That was a massive 22 more rucks per game than the next team.

Scotland averaged five rucks lost per game in the same competition last season, but on a sunny Saturday afternoon at Murrayfield they only lost one in 128. There is huge difference between losing one ruck in every 24 attempts set, and losing one in 128 against a very good jackaling and counter-ruck defence like that run by Shaun Edwards. That is what it means to take out your opponent in the rugby basics, and to live and die by your own identity, wearing the thistle and the dark navy blue.

Scotland’s performance was a welcome breath of fresh air, and a pleasurable push in the back for possession footy in a tournament which initially looked likely to be dominated by the boot and the battle of the airwaves. There were only 42 kicks launched into orbit, and that meant it was Scotland who were effectively establishing the ground-rules of play.

The ball-in-play time at Murrayfield was exactly the same as in France’s opening round game against Ireland at 39 minutes; but whereas at the Stade de France there were 80 kicks compared to 190 rucks built, in Edinburgh that ratio had changed to 42 kicks to 203 rucks. There is a big difference in aerobic demands between a 39-minute game where the ruck-to-kick ratio is 5:1 rather than 2.5:1, and Scotland waxed as France waned off the back of that change.

Scotland prevailed in all the KPIs of contact:

• 128 rucks set to France’s 75, with one pilfer apiece
• Scotland forced their opponents to make an extra 80 tackles
• 84% of Scottish metres gained came after first contact with a defender, compared to 57% by France
• Scotland won the penalty count at the tackle area by six pens to two
• Scotland made twice the number of offloads compared to France [12 against 6]

If you are a possession-based team, those are all stats to gladden the heart.

Townsend’s men made at least half a dozen saves at the kind of counter-ruck scenarios where France have made so much profit in this Six Nations.

pic.twitter.com/JzdYYhVUNg

— William Bishop (@RPvids1994) March 8, 2026

Right wing Darcy Graham takes a negative tackle and Les Bleus are primed to turn over the ball and play back with a lethal counter, but it is the arrival of three Scottish backs – 15 Blair Kinghorn, 13 Huw Jones and 10 Finn Russell – which stabilises the situation. When your primary playmaker is willing to make that kind of commitment in contact, you know you are on to a winner.

The other big item on Townsend’s attacking menu in contact was the use of the offload when the ball-carrier was potentially exposed to turnover.

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— William Bishop (@RPvids1994) March 8, 2026

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— William Bishop (@RPvids1994) March 8, 2026

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— William Bishop (@RPvids1994) March 8, 2026

There are a total of five significant offloads – between Jack Dempsey and Pierre Schoeman at 4:19, between Russell and Graham at 4:37 in the first clip; between Kyle Steyn and Matt Fagerson at 57:02, and Fagerson and Ben White a couple of seconds later in the second; and between Kinghorn and Graham at 58:29 in the third – which fan the attacking flames at moments when they could be doused.

It was the expert control and management of the contact zone which enabled quick ruck ball and the ability to push the ball wide-wide in the first three phases from set-piece, and go wide-wide-wide within five.

pic.twitter.com/1N3FqQNnbu

— William Bishop (@RPvids1994) March 8, 2026

Scotland’s word-perfect sermon in the contact area was probably the most complete performance by any possession-based international team since vintage Ireland 2022-23, with Johnny Sexton banging the bible from his pulpit.

Scotland controlled the French jackaling and counter-ruck threat, chose when to set the ruck or offload, and laid a sun-soaked platform from which Russell could display his attacking wares. It has deservedly set them up for a potential championship decider.

Les Bleus still remain favourites to win the title while falling again at the hurdle which has proven so problematic over the last couple of seasons. When can we expect Galthié’s France to overcome the top teams on their own turf, and knock them off one after another without fear or favour? We are no closer to knowing the answer to that question now than we were at the beginning of 2025.

It can join a host of conundrums thrown up by the most surprising, shock-filled Six Nations of recent years. Where will England’s sudden death spiral end? Can Scotland win their first championship for 27 years? Can Italy win more games than they lose and finish in the top half of the table? When will Wales ever win another match? In the last round, as in all of the others, expect the unexpected.