LONG READ 'It might be time to start believing in these Wallabies'

Here’s a small victory for Wallabies fans to take away from this year’s Rugby Championship tour of South Africa: Australia beat the Springboks on aggregate, 60 points to 52. And it’s fair to say that was not on anyone’s bingo card when the squad flew out three weeks ago.

The question was put to Rassie Erasmus after last Saturday’s Test in Cape Town – whether, among other things, he was concerned by the fact the Wallabies out-scored his team in consecutive second halves on home soil. The great modern rugby thinker rightly chuckled, explaining that wasn’t really how rugby games were scored.

On the other hand, Australia should take plenty out of it. Beyond that, they will look at both games in Johannesburg and Cape Town and point to several moments or opportunities where they might have preferred a more positive outcome. James O’Connor’s three missed kicks at goal in the last 11 minutes in Cape Town – one conversion in the 69^th, two penalties in the 78^th and 80^th – jump straight out.

With the team now back home recuperating after a physical tour, a reflection of the last two weeks paints a very positive picture. Belief in the playing group is certainly growing, and belief among fans now is very different to where it was even just a few weeks ago.

The rugby world has a very different view of the Wallabies after 160 surprisingly impressive minutes in South Africa. Perhaps it’s time for Australian fans to start thinking differently about their team, too.

Belief breeds confidence breeds fight breeds results

In Melbourne, the Wallabies led the British & Irish Lions 23-5 after half an hour. In Sydney, they led 15-0 after 56 minutes of game play and a 40-minute lightning break.

In Johannesburg, they trailed South Africa 22-0 after 19 minutes and were leading by the 64^th minute. In Cape Town, they trailed 20-10 at half-time and missed a conversion in the 69^th minute to take the lead.

This is a team who have grown in belief, played with increasing confidence, displayed fight that eluded so many Wallabies teams of the recent past and achieved results no-one expected them to.

Coming into 2025, the Wallabies were being written off almost universally yet against two highly fancied opponents, in their last four outings they have led well twice, come back to claim an historic win, and come back and threatened to repeat the dose.

“I don’t think we as a group under-estimated Australia at all. We said it last week, that first 22 points I think put the whole world into a lull with how good they are,” Erasmus was quick to explain post-match in Cape Town.

“We found them extremely difficult to beat, just like the Lions did in those two Test matches.”

This is a team who have grown in belief, played with increasing confidence, displayed fight that eluded so many Wallabies teams of the recent past and achieved results no-one expected them to.

‘Next man up’ mentality

In South Africa alone, the Wallabies lost Ben Donaldson before the Ellis Park Test, Dylan Pietsch and Harry Wilson to injuries of varying seriousness during the game, and James Slipper to an HIA post-match. In Cape Town, they lost Tom Wright and Nic White inside a quarter of an hour, Joseph-Aukuso Suaalii at half-time, and Tate McDermott, O’Connor and Taniela Tupou finished the match after treatment for niggles that will have lingered.

That’s 10 players. And that’s already after losing Harry Potter, Allan Ala’alatoa and Rob Valetini during the second Lions Test, Carlo Tizzano after it, Matt Faessler, Dave Porecki and Jake Gordon before it and Tom Lynagh during the third Test.

That’s now 18 players in four matches. Only Valetini is back on the field, while Porecki just simply retired. White is still trying to.

Yet despite all this, the Wallabies have carried on with the job, fronting up to every contest and winning plenty of them. Plenty of Australian teams of the recent past would have dropped out of the contest, copped the hammering that came with it, and rued the injury count for days.

This one has kept going, though Joe Schmidt admits the number of fit and available players is uncomfortably low. Fresh and new blood is arriving for the two Argentina Tests.

“After today and even losing three guys last week, the attritional nature of the tour is going to make it a little bit more difficult coming up against Argentina,” Schmidt said in Cape Town.

“But our strength and depth is going to be tested. So the guys who are experienced, they’re going to have to get around the new guys who come in and we’re going to have to calibrate those guys as quickly as possible, assimilate them into the group and try to kick on against Argentina.”

Corey Toole’s confident debut spoke volumes for the clarity with which players coming into the team know their roles and expectations.

Schmidt referred to growing confidence in the squad, and how that will be crucial in building confidence in the new players coming into the squad.

Fortunately, a good number of those players were either in South Africa or have been in and around the squad this year already. Eagled-eyed viewers might have noticed Josh Nasser, Hamish Stewart, Aidan Ross and Tizzano taking part in the pre-game warm-up at the DHL Stadium. Ryan Lonergan was too, and his Test debut is now surely closer than ever.

Corey Toole was in five Wallabies squads over the previous 12 months, and his confident debut spoke volumes for the clarity with which players coming into the team know their roles and expectations.

Some of those 18 players will make their return against Los Pumas and they’ll be very welcome. They and whoever else are the next men in are still going to have to do a job.

Transforming turnovers into tries a confident sign  

Brandon Paenga-Amosa’s 68^th-minute try in Cape Town was the Wallabies’ first maul try since Porecki scored the Wallabies’ first try of the year against Fiji in Newcastle.

In between those two from set-piece, the Wallabies have scored some genuine highlight reel specials from broken play, and especially thrived against the Springboks in their ability to convert turnovers into attacking opportunities at worst, and memorable tries at best.

This is possibly the best sign of their growing confidence – the likes of Wright and Max Jorgensen backing themselves to create opportunities with only half a sniff of open space, and an all-in mentality that has seen anyone from the speed men outside to Wilson finishing off right up the middle.

There’s an evident willingness to play to the speedsters on the edges too, with Pietsch, Andrew Kellaway, Suaalii and Toole all featuring nicely.

For the whole of the 2024 Rugby Championship, the Wallabies managed just 26 clean breaks across the six games. In 2025, the count through the first two games is already up to 17.

Set-piece is more than holding its own

After not losing a scrum in three Tests against the Lions, the Wallabies went seven from seven again in Cape Town after winning all five in Johannesburg the week before. All told in 2025, they’ve won 40 of their own scrums, with the solitary loss coming against Fiji in the first Test of the year.

I can’t think of the last time an Australian pack was so unmoved at scrum time.

It won’t make the highlights reels, but these huge set-piece improvements are every bit as important to the Wallabies’ performances this season.

They’ve lost more lineouts in that time, but their other set-piece is no less impressive in 2025, with the likes of Nick Frost and Jeremy Williams emerging among the very best thieves on the opposition throw in the international game. And that’s not to mention the disruption they’re still causing opposition teams when they don’t manage to pull off the steal.

It’s not getting the headlines, and it won’t make the highlights reels, but these huge set-piece improvements are every bit as important to the Wallabies’ performances this season.

With great improvement, comes great expectation

The true test for the Wallabies is about to arrive. These last four performances have completely flipped the narrative, altering expectations in the process.

Even with Los Pumas creating their own on-field history against New Zealand in Buenos Aires last weekend, the expectation around both upcoming Tests against Argentina in Townsville and Sydney will be very simple: two wins. Preferably comfortable, and ideally with bonus points.

Whether that’s fair or not is mostly immaterial; if you can beat the then-world No.1-ranked South Africa at Ellis Park, you’ll be expected to beat every team ranked below you, and anyone else you’re playing at home.

But this Wallabies team doesn’t appear to be worried about narratives and expectations. They seem to have found an ability to focus on the job at hand and even refocus if the job suddenly looks different to how it looked 20 minutes ago.

It’s hard not to be impressed by that. If the Wallabies believe they can win games they’re not expected to, then it’s only fair to start believing in them to do the job.