LONG READ Despite the positivity Steve Tandy knows only results will lift the gloom around Welsh rugby

Those with long memories might still remember the promotional trailers for a Wales autumn series that featured George North apparently carrying tree trunks while hurtling through a forest, Leigh Halfpenny racing a horse on a beach and Rhys Priestland appearing to hoof a ball over a 92-ft high seven-arch viaduct.

Oh, and those same ads from 2012 also depicted Dan Lydiate throwing tractor tyres uphill on a Caerphilly mountainside.

A pint of what those boys were drinking?

Perhaps not. Lydiate failed to make the starting grid for the campaign because of an injury, while the then Six Nations Grand Slam champions failed to win a single game during that year’s pre-Christmas series: four matches played, every one of them lost.

Never mind, the trailers were good.

History tells us that Wales are not keen on the season of mists and mellow fruitfulness. Often the talk has been about development rather than actually winning matches, of learning curves rather than concrete achievement. This century they have played incoming New Zealand sides 12 times in autumn Tests and lost the lot. Over the same period, they have suffered defeats in nine out of 13 end-of-year jousts with South Africa.

The record against Australia is not much better, while Georgia won in Cardiff in the 2022 November series, a result from which there was no coming back for Wayne Pivac as Wales head coach, with Fiji triumphing in the Welsh capital last year and Samoa in 2012.

Anyone looking for a satisfying definition of happiness, then, needs to steer well clear of the Wales rugby team at this point in the calendar.

But look: it could be pointed out that the national team don’t appear overly delighted with any time of the year of late, what with just one win from their last 19 Tests.

Against that backdrop, Steve Tandy announced his first squad as national head coach. The 45-year-old has a lot of things to contend with heading into the series, but something that shouldn’t trouble him too much in the short term is weight of expectation.

The certainty is Wales will have to take their performance level into the stratosphere to be even reasonably competitive against the All Blacks and the Springboks, who head into November filling the top two spots in the world rugby rankings.

True, two percent of respondents in an online BBC Sport poll on Tuesday backed Wales to win all four Tests this autumn, but such skyscraping levels of optimism were countered by the 83 percent who either tipped Tandy’s team to lose every match or pick up just a solitary success from a testing programme that sees them play Argentina, Japan, New Zealand and South Africa.

The certainty is Wales will have to take their performance level into the stratosphere to be even reasonably competitive against the All Blacks and the Springboks, who head into November filling the top two spots in the world rugby rankings.

When South Africa announced their squad this week, the peak-level qualities of their rugby, covering strength, power, speed, game-breaking skill and immense rugby know-how, were paraded to the full like a spread peacock’s tail.

Forwards such as Wilco Louw, Thomas du Toit, Ox Nche, Malcolm Marx, Eben Etzebeth, Lood de Jager, Siya Kolisi and Pieter-Steph du Toit were all there to provide high-end physicality. Behind the scrum, the names of Cheslin Kolbe, Damian Willemse, Jesse Kriel, Damian de Allende, Sacha Feinberg-Mngomezulu, Andre Esterhuizen and Cobus Reinach positively glittered off the page.

And Wales will be missing their 12 England-based players when they face the Springboks. Best of luck with that one, then.

But whoever takes the field for him in the coming weeks, Tandy will expect maximum effort. It will be one of his non-negotiables. He will give his all and he will expect his players to do the same.

Will it be enough? The answer to that will likely come in the negative for the games with the Big Two – maybe so against Argentina, as well, though the Pumas can blow cold as well as hot and Wales might quietly fancy their chances if they can conjure a peak display. A win over Japan needs to happen, end of.

Beefier and even quicker than he was before decamping to America, Rees-Zammit will score tries if provided with ball in space, while even the most casual rugby observer will work out that a trio of Rees-Zammit, Blair Murray and Josh Adams has significant potential.

Tandy’s first squad announcement has been greeted with a fair amount of positivity, but then so was Warren Gatland’s last squad reveal as Wales head coach. The acid test always comes when results are brought into the mix.

Areas where there are grounds for encouragement include the back three, where Louis Rees-Zammit’s return should give Wales the kind of cutting edge they have lacked since the ex-Gloucester man decided to try his luck in the NFL.

The American adventure may not have gone as planned, but, if his early-season appearances for Bristol are anything to go by, Zammo, as Tandy calls him, shouldn’t take long to show what the national team have been missing.

Beefier and possibly even quicker than he was before decamping to America, he will score tries if provided with ball in space, while even the most casual rugby observer will work out that a starting back-field trio of Rees-Zammit, Blair Murray and Josh Adams has significant potential.

 Wales are also usefully equipped in the back row – so much so that they have felt able to omit Ross Moriarty, one of the few Ospreys players to emerge from the game against Glasgow Warriors with his reputation enhanced, with 11 carries and 20 tackles, almost every one made with conviction. Tommy Reffell, Olly Cracknell, Harri Deaves and Alun Lawrence must also have rated mentions in the coaches’ deliberations before others were named ahead of them.

But a run-on back row of Aaron Wainwright, skipper Jac Morgan and Taulupe Faletau looks promising, with Taine Plumtree, Alex Mann and Morgan Morse also in the selection mix.

Is there enough cover for Morgan at openside? Both Mann and Morse have played there, Morse most recently against Glasgow, but neither could be called a specialist No. 7 at this stage. Tandy, then, will hope his captain steers clear of injuries.

There are plenty who will applaud the pick of Morse, though. He has presumably been summoned because of the explosive nature of his game, with the youngster averaging 4.6 metres a carry this season, a ground-eating rate that Tandy has found impossible to ignore, with Wales not overly blessed with forwards who can make such headway with ball in hand.

The 20-year-old also wins turnovers and is building a reputation for coming up with big moments. A headline writer might even suggest he has X-factor.

Nostradamus isn’t required to foresee potential difficulties for the Welsh scrum on the tighthead side at certain points over the coming weeks, and particularly when South Africa and New Zealand hit town

Hopes will be high that Rhys Carre can transfer his fine form for Saracens to the international stage, with the heavyweight prop proving especially impressive as a carrier in recent weeks. Those who deal in hyperbole might contend there are steamrollers easier to stop than the ex-Cardiff man in full flight. Others will enjoy his work with ball in hand but also want evidence he can hold his own as a Test scrummager. From here, he looks a useful potential impact option, with Nicky Smith starting at loosehead.

Areas of concern for Tandy? Tighthead prop, a position that has been a problem since Tomas Francis left for France in 2023, with six players subsequently wearing the No. 3 jersey: Leon Brown, Keiron Assiratti, Dillon Lewis, Archie Griffin, Henry Thomas and WillGriff John. Not one of them has been able to nail the shirt down.

Assiratti, Griffin and Chris Coleman have been asked to step up for the coming matches. Nostradamus isn’t required to foresee potential difficulties for the Welsh scrum on the tighthead side at certain points over the coming weeks, and particularly when South Africa and New Zealand hit town, but the aforementioned trio will want to confound the doubters. Should they do so it will be an achievement to celebrate.

Then there’s the issue of who should start at fly-half, with Callum Sheedy, Jarrod Evans and Dan Edwards in contention. Sheedy has been in form as a creator for Cardiff, assisting more tries, five, than any other player in the URC this season, while Edwards has been playing well for the Ospreys and Evans has had his moments for Harlequins.

The shirt is there to be claimed, then, and game-control will surely come into it, as well as place-kicking. All three candidates have their plus points, as well as areas where they are not so strong. How they perform in training could determine who faces Argentina on November 9.

And centre remains another area where uncertainty rules. Since the last World Cup, seven different midfield combinations have been used, none of them to especially memorable effect. Wales are still looking for their outside centre replacement for George North, almost 20 months after he played his last international.

Ben Thomas has begun the last five Tests at No. 12, but being creative and able to pass is only half the battle for a modern-day inside centre: in a perfect world such an individual also needs to challenge the gainline and dominate tackles. Maybe Wales are in no position to demand perfection at this point, though. For them, perhaps it’s best to focus more on what they have rather than what they haven’t.

The squad chosen is not far from being the strongest Tandy could have gone for at this point. In that respect, he’s made a solid start, but the challenges ahead will be hugely testing.

It would be quite something if the new coach could enjoy a honeymoon period rather than see crockery flying through the air before the confetti has been properly swept away.

But let’s see what happens.

This is Wales, after all, where emotions have occasionally been known to run high in rugby matters.

That said, the squad chosen is not far from being the strongest Tandy could have gone for at this point. In that respect, he’s made a solid start, but the challenges ahead will be hugely testing. He’ll know that as well as anyone.