The closer we get to the Super Rugby Pacific finals, the more games are going to tighten up. Teams that find ways to win are the ones preparing themselves for literally anything that could happen in a knockout game.
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The Hurricanes, fresh from an impressive demolition of the second-placed Blues, will face five games against current top six teams in their remaining seven fixtures, including the Crusaders twice. The Crusaders themselves, over their last five games, will start and finish with the Hurricanes, and face the Blues and Chiefs with a bye in between. The New Zealand sides will grow battle hardened but takes points off each other in the process.
The Brumbies took care of the Highlanders in a hard-fought Dunedin scrap (Photo by Joe Allison/Getty Images)
The big Australian winners from this scenario could be the ACT Brumbies and Queensland Reds. The Australian teams will certainly have easier run-ins than their New Zealand counterparts, and even facing each other in round 12, the Brumbies and Reds each play the current bottom three during the final seven rounds. If Queensland can come through the Blues, Brumbies, and Chiefs following a bye this weekend, they could be well-placed to cash in against ninth, 10th and 11th next.
Which is why neither will be overly fussed about wins that weren’t the prettiest over the weekend.
Coming off a very welcome bye, the Brumbies made the long trek to Dunedin and lacked cohesion. Their timing was a bit off, passes missed the mark, and they very nearly got sucked into playing exactly the kind of hard breakdown game the Highlanders love.
Despite having an equal share of possession, the Brumbies carried nearly 60% more than their opponents, and made more ground as a result, but didn’t get any huge reward from it.
Despite having an equal share of possession, the Brumbies carried nearly 60% more than their opponents, and made more ground as a result, but didn’t get any huge reward from it. They played their same high-possession, patient game that waits and waits for an opposition defence to break, but it was well into the last quarter before they took a firm grip of the contest, and the 75th minute before scoring the decisive try.
They gave the Highlanders scrum a few headaches, and put enough pressure on the lineout the home team lost six on their own throw, but didn’t come out of the collisions well at all. They couldn’t make anywhere near as many tackle busts as the Highlanders, with the Brumbies’ top five players for defenders beaten only bettering Timoci Tavatavanawai and Caleb Tangitau’s combined total by one.
In reality, this was a very typical Highlanders-Brumbies game played in New Zealand. A clash of styles, with the Highlanders prepared to defend, challenge the Brumbies’ phase play with dominant shots enabling a turnover roughly every 10 minutes. But they still won, and this is the bit that really matters.
Queensland are setting up for a different challenge this week. Their second bye of the season allows a timely opportunity to refine the game plan, apply a bit of spit and polish, and arrive in the finals series with momentum.
The Reds came out on the right side of an error-strewn contest against the Crusaders (Photo by Chris Hyde/Getty Images)
Their second bye comes with a fairly contrasting form line, too. A bye in round two is usually about as welcome as a Christmas Day cold snap down in this part of the world, but after an opening-round beating from the NSW Waratahs, Reds coach Les Kiss mentioned the break might be useful for a reset.
‘Reset’ may well have meant ‘restart’, from which the Reds went on a four-game winning streak to break into the top four. After beating the Crusaders, Queensland now get to do the same thing and hopefully achieve the same results.
And there’s no doubt they’ll use the bye to sharpen up in a few areas too.
n ugly win earns more competition points than a picturesque loss, after all. At this time of the season, an ugly win could take you into the finals, and get you over the line in knockout rugby.
Though the game was hard-fought from start to finish, and Queensland didn’t kick away until the last seven minutes, a major drawback for both sides was the combined 44 turnovers conceded – more than 30 straight-out handling errors that stifled so much attack. Not all handling errors are equal but when every player on the field essentially drops the ball once, you do have to wonder what on earth is in the water bottles.
The Reds lineout running at a notch or two below their average for the season will be a source of concern too, especially on a night when all other set-piece components held strong.
Where Queensland did have an edge was bench depth, and that proved the difference in the end, with the Reds able to force errors from a young Crusaders finishing group, underlined by scrum-half Louis Werchon scooping up a loose ball and running 60m while keeping an eye on the big screen to check how close the chasing defenders were getting.
Like the Brumbies, this wasn’t the smoothest Reds victory of the year, but also like the Brumbies, the most important point is it now sits in the win column.
Stephen Larkham’s Brumbies look well placed to challenge for the Super Rugby Pacific title (Photo by Mark Nolan/Getty Images)
Both wins also serve as a reminder these things don’t need to be pretty, and they don’t even need to linger too long in the memory. An ugly win earns more competition points than a picturesque loss, after all. At this time of the season, an ugly win could take you into the finals, and get you over the line in knockout rugby.
There are obvious areas of improvement, of course, but coaches can use these wins as a benchmark. “Remember how patient we were in Dunedin,” or “remember how we beat the Crusaders with 20-plus turnovers”.
The ability to win games in any circumstance is only going to become more important from here. It’s a very good thing the Australian contenders are starting to showcase that trait.
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Derek Murray 29 days ago
I’m surprised you suggest that the Brums presented problems at scrum. My view was that AAA got a proper going over in his first game back and things only improved when de Groot went off
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Brett McKay 28 days ago
I said they gave the Highlanders scrum a few headaches Derek, certainly not suggesting domination..
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Mzilikazi 29 days ago
“An ugly win earns more competition points than a picturesque loss, after all. At this time of the season, an ugly win could take you into the finals, and get you over the line in knockout rugby.” Would add that the best team does not always win these games….that would apply to the Reds beating the Brumbies. And of course good fortune comes into so many of these tight games. Good fortune covering a whole swathe from the bounce of a ball to refereeing and TMO calls.
No question it is good for the competition, and indeed the wider game in Australia, that our SRP sides are now beating the NZ sides, and in NZ to boot in some cases. And no team looks unbeatable this year. The Hurricanes are standing out above the pack, but good preparation and detailed analysis of their game can, I truly believe, beat them.
But the team that beats them will need to have everything going well. A secure scrum and lineout, reduce errors to close to zero, especially handling errors, be deadly efficient at the breakdown both sides of the ball, make sure defensive calls are always spot on. Kicking well close to 100% of the time too. And goalkicking % in the high 80/low 90’s. I think to achieve these named above, the coaching unit will need to instil belief, from which stems confidence and calmness. ot easy, but achieveable. I would say that I feel Stephen Larkham would be the best at those, but Les Kiss not far behind.
These are great articles, Brett. Sometimes between yourself, Geoff and Nick, and then sometimes Harry, Lawrence and JD Kiwi, I get behind and don’t always comment, but do always read.
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Brett McKay 29 days ago
Cheers Mizz, this is a typically solid comment from you too.
It’s going to be a fascinating run home for all the teams, but certainly the Australian teams. Two have put themseves in the frame, two more could yet have an impact.
And that certainly gives us all plenty to write and talk!
S
SB 30 days ago
Good to see the Reds win, they needed that. The Force got close but no cigar, couldn’t convert the clutch kicks required. Still, I think they’ll give the Crusaders a good game this weekend. The Brumbies and Waratahs have absolute must win games that on paper are relatively comfortable.
However, it would be the most Tahs thing ever if they failed to win against MP.
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Brett McKay 29 days ago
I’m still curious as to why Beale took that last conversion SB, and it hasn’t really been clarified in any way..
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NH 30 days ago
Where do you think the reds and brums need to improve in their games brett? You alluded to the lack of gainline carries by the brums, what about the reds? Of course, an ugly win is better than nothing but I worry these ugly wins weren’t against any team in the top 5… Odd that both of these teams actually have decent records against the better teams this year (canes vs reds aside), but have both had uncharacteristic fades and losses against lower ranked teams.
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Brett McKay 29 days ago
Yeah, it’s a good question NH, and they’re probably different areas for both the Reds and Brumbies.
The Brumbies carried nearly twice as much as the Highlanders on Friday night, but their post-contact metres were nearly identical. The Brums are also the least offloading team in the comp.
The Highlanders also dominated Turnover tackles and Dominant tackles, so that suggests to me that the Brumbies perhaps aren't getting enough out of the collision area.
But then, when they're averaging more than five tries a game, perhaps they don't need that as much as other teams.
The Reds, on the other hand, completely dominate the collision area against the Crusaders, and are among the leading offloaders in the comp, certainly the most of the Australian teams.
But they battle for points. They’ve scored ten fewer tries than the ‘next worst’ team in the top six, and the for-and-against isn’t healthy, either.
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I’m surprised you suggest that the Brums presented problems at scrum. My view was that AAA got a proper going over in his first game back and things only improved when de Groot went off
I said they gave the Highlanders scrum a few headaches Derek, certainly not suggesting domination..
“An ugly win earns more competition points than a picturesque loss, after all. At this time of the season, an ugly win could take you into the finals, and get you over the line in knockout rugby.” Would add that the best team does not always win these games….that would apply to the Reds beating the Brumbies. And of course good fortune comes into so many of these tight games. Good fortune covering a whole swathe from the bounce of a ball to refereeing and TMO calls.
No question it is good for the competition, and indeed the wider game in Australia, that our SRP sides are now beating the NZ sides, and in NZ to boot in some cases. And no team looks unbeatable this year. The Hurricanes are standing out above the pack, but good preparation and detailed analysis of their game can, I truly believe, beat them.
But the team that beats them will need to have everything going well. A secure scrum and lineout, reduce errors to close to zero, especially handling errors, be deadly efficient at the breakdown both sides of the ball, make sure defensive calls are always spot on. Kicking well close to 100% of the time too. And goalkicking % in the high 80/low 90’s. I think to achieve these named above, the coaching unit will need to instil belief, from which stems confidence and calmness. ot easy, but achieveable. I would say that I feel Stephen Larkham would be the best at those, but Les Kiss not far behind.
These are great articles, Brett. Sometimes between yourself, Geoff and Nick, and then sometimes Harry, Lawrence and JD Kiwi, I get behind and don’t always comment, but do always read.
Cheers Mizz, this is a typically solid comment from you too.
It’s going to be a fascinating run home for all the teams, but certainly the Australian teams. Two have put themseves in the frame, two more could yet have an impact.
And that certainly gives us all plenty to write and talk!
Good to see the Reds win, they needed that. The Force got close but no cigar, couldn’t convert the clutch kicks required. Still, I think they’ll give the Crusaders a good game this weekend. The Brumbies and Waratahs have absolute must win games that on paper are relatively comfortable.
However, it would be the most Tahs thing ever if they failed to win against MP.
I’m still curious as to why Beale took that last conversion SB, and it hasn’t really been clarified in any way..
Where do you think the reds and brums need to improve in their games brett? You alluded to the lack of gainline carries by the brums, what about the reds? Of course, an ugly win is better than nothing but I worry these ugly wins weren’t against any team in the top 5… Odd that both of these teams actually have decent records against the better teams this year (canes vs reds aside), but have both had uncharacteristic fades and losses against lower ranked teams.
Yeah, it’s a good question NH, and they’re probably different areas for both the Reds and Brumbies.
The Brumbies carried nearly twice as much as the Highlanders on Friday night, but their post-contact metres were nearly identical. The Brums are also the least offloading team in the comp.
The Highlanders also dominated Turnover tackles and Dominant tackles, so that suggests to me that the Brumbies perhaps aren't getting enough out of the collision area.
But then, when they're averaging more than five tries a game, perhaps they don't need that as much as other teams.
The Reds, on the other hand, completely dominate the collision area against the Crusaders, and are among the leading offloaders in the comp, certainly the most of the Australian teams.
But they battle for points. They’ve scored ten fewer tries than the ‘next worst’ team in the top six, and the for-and-against isn’t healthy, either.