World Rugby ranking top-spot on the line in RGR but there is a caveat

This weekend’s Rugby’s Greatest Rivalry Test carries added significance at Ellis Park on Saturday, with South Africa and New Zealand not only battling for supremacy on the field but also for top spot bragging rights in the World Rugby rankings.

The Springboks head into the opening Test of the four-match Rugby’s Greatest Rivalry series ranked No.1 in the world on 93.96 points, holding a slender 1.68-point advantage over the second-placed All Blacks.

A New Zealand victory in Johannesburg would be enough to send them back to the summit for the first time since September last year. Win by more than 15 points and the All Blacks would take a 1.82-point lead into next week’s second Test in Cape Town.

South Africa, meanwhile, can significantly strengthen their grip on top spot. A victory by 15 points or fewer would extend their advantage to 3.34 points, while a win by more than 15 would open up a commanding 4.18-point cushion. Such a cushion would see the Boks retain top spot after a loss in the second Test of the series.

Neither side can fall lower than second this weekend.

The fixture arrives with plenty of momentum behind the Springboks, who are riding a 12-match winning streak, their best run under Rassie Erasmus and their longest sequence of victories since winning 13 in a row between 2007 and 2008.

South Africa’s most recent outing saw them edge Argentina 17-10 in Buenos Aires, with tries from Edwill van der Merwe and Cameron Hanekom helping maintain their unbeaten start to the Nations Championship. The result extended a run in which the Boks have won 20 of their last 22 Tests.

Erasmus’s side have also been prolific. They lead the Nations Championship for points scored with 130 and have crossed for 20 tries in just three matches. No team has made more entries into the opposition 22 than the Springboks’ tally of 43.

The All Blacks arrive in equally encouraging form.

Dave Rennie’s side won all three of their Nations Championship fixtures against France, Italy and Ireland and trail South Africa only on points difference in the southern hemisphere standings. Their attacking numbers have been among the competition’s strongest, leading the field for carries, metres gained, defenders beaten and passes completed.

A major factor has been the form of Will Jordan. The full-back has scored six tries in the competition and now has 51 Test tries from just 57 appearances after surpassing Doug Howlett’s long-standing All Blacks record.

While South Africa hold the recent edge in the rivalry, winning five of the last six meetings, the teams remain separated by the finest of margins. The previous four encounters before last year’s meeting in Wellington were all decided by seven points or fewer.

That Wellington clash, however, was anything but close.

The Springboks stormed to a 43-10 victory, the heaviest defeat in All Blacks Test history. After New Zealand led 10-7 at half-time, South Africa produced a devastating second-half display, reeling off 36 unanswered points through Cheslin Kolbe, Damian Willemse, Kwagga Smith, RG Snyman and Andre Esterhuizen.

The result secured the Freedom Cup and underlined the Springboks’ status as the world’s leading side.

History offers little separation between the teams. Across 110 Tests since first meeting in 1921, New Zealand have won 63 times to South Africa’s 43, with four draws.

Saturday’s contest will be refereed by England’s Matthew Carley, who takes charge of the fixture for the fourth time. South Africa have won all three previous Springboks-All Blacks Tests overseen by Carley, including the 18-12 Rugby Championship victory in Cape Town in 2024.

After Ellis Park, the series moves to Cape Town next weekend before further Tests at FNB Stadium and, unusually, Baltimore in the United States.