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Why the All Blacks should follow the 'Marco Pierre White theory of rugby selection'

Shaun Stevenson at All Blacks training. Photo by Joe Allison/Getty Images

England have made the tough selection calls as attention shifts from club to country with the tour of New Zealand nearing, and now it is the All Blacks‘ turn to reveal who will be greeting them on the Dunedin turf.

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No selection is a straightforward task, especially in the backline, where All Blacks teams have historically held the upper hand with their electric attacking threats.

If 2024 is to be no different, new head coach Scott Robertson must make the right selection calls. Something easier said than done with talent aplenty across Super Rugby Pacific.

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The playoffs are sure to provide some crucial insights into how certain players perform under pressure, and the quarter-finals have already offered some answers in that respect.

The Chiefs had run out to a 31-0 lead over the Reds by halftime, a demolition job that owes thanks to all 15 starters, but with the scoring opportunities largely orchestrated by the dynamic duo of playmaker Damian McKenzie and fullback Shaun Stevenson.

While the No. 4 and No. 5 seed quarter-final is often the most competitive, the Chiefs romped home to the most convincing win of the weekend, a relatively unexpected result that has thrown preconceptions over the title favourites tag up in the air.

The 2023 finalists have hit this year’s playoffs with by far the most energy and reminded everyone why they were considered the favourites to begin the season.

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“I’ll tell you who called that, (Chiefs head coach) Clayton McMillan,” Scotty Stevenson remarked on SENZ Breakfast. “We had him on the show a couple of weeks ago and we talked about when we were going to see the real Chiefs, when they were going to play their hand. Well, they played their hand on Friday night.

“That’s playoff Chiefs, that’s what that team is. The McKenzie-Stevenson combination was simply outstanding. The All Blacks coaches have been looking for that dual-playmaker for years, for the most part of the last decade, and you cannot manufacture it. It has to be organic. It has to be natural.

“Those two players, McKenzie and Stevenson, they understand themselves and each other on some transcendental frequency.

“I don’t know who can stop those players and I don’t think even Clayton McMillan knows what’s going to happen. But, the best thing you can do with McKeznie and Stevenson on the same team, is say well here is a little bit of structure, here’s how we want to play the game, you guys go and do it.

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“It’s the Marco Pierre White theory of rugby selection; just put the ingredients out there and don’t do too much to them.”

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The two have undeniable rugby instincts and chemistry, having grown and developed side-by-side in the Chiefs environment. The combination’s partnership may well be ready to hit the international stage in 2024 with uncertainty surrounding the black No. 15 jersey.

“You know what I love about that? You haven’t got two alfa males trying to dominate that big dog bone that’s been hanging out there. You’ve got two players who understand each other’s roles,” former All Black fullback Israel Dagg added.

“You’re not trying to get in there at first receiver, you’re giving Damian time to run the ship, but Stevenson’s stepping up in the perfect situation.”

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Comments

15 Comments
J
Jmann 295 days ago

Stephenson still has suspect defense.

G
Greg 296 days ago

And Love over Stephenson of course.

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Greg 296 days ago

Much as I admire DMac, I don’t think he’ll drag half the Chiefs team into the ABs with him. Ratima, Stevenson and even Taukei’aho need to justify their inclusion ahead of the likes of TJ, Christie, Funaki (a bolter) and Taylor and Aumua, they’re not going to just ride in there on DMac’s back.

T
Troy 296 days ago

McKenzie - Stevenson combo would be unmatched on the international stage. As stated it's organic ,it's natural, something you can't manufacture. Also the kicking game provided by them is varied, accurate and long when needed, they would be what Hansen and then Foster tried to create but failed to the detriment of our team. Razor needs to be brave and install the chief's spine into the ABs, Stevenson, McKenzie, Ratima and Taukei'aho if he's looking for natural combinations to help fast track his new team.

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Michael 296 days ago

He missed a bad tackle a couple of weeks back and that will cost him his place

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Jasyn 297 days ago

Stevenson can be a wonderful attacking threat, but his effort and body language at the back sometimes suggests he's wishing anyone else was the last line of defence but him.

We already had years of turnstile-Dagg at the back until Hansen finally saw sense and put Ben Smith in 15. We don’t need a defence optional fullback again.

J
Jen 297 days ago

I love watching Stevenson play. I’d be so happy if he got a run in black again - I think last time he was thrown under the bus.

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f
fl 29 minutes ago
Why Les Kiss and Stuart Lancaster can lead Australia to glory

“He won a ECL and a domestic treble at the beginning of his career.”

He won 2 ECLs at the beginning of his career (2009, 2011). Since then he’s won 1 in 15 years.


“He then won 3 leagues on the bounce later in his career”

He won 3 leagues on the bounce at the start of his career too - (2009, 2010, 2011).


If we’re judging him by champions league wins, he peaked in his late 30s, early 40s. If we’re judging him by domestic titles he’s stayed pretty consistent over his career. If we’re judging him by overall win rate he peaked at Bayern, and was better at Barcelona than at City. So no, he hasn’t gotten better by every measure.


“You mentioned coaches were older around the mid-2010’s compared to the mid-2000’s. Robson was well above the average age you’ve given for those periods even in the 90’s when in his pomp.”

Robson was 63-64 when he was at Barcelona, so he wasn’t very old. But yeah, he was slightly above the average age of 60 I gave for the top 4 premier league coaches in 2015, and quite a bit above the averages for 2005 and 2025.


“Also, comparing coaches - and their experiences, achievements - at different ages is unstable. It’s not a valid way to compare and tends to torpedo your own logic when you do compare them on equal terms. I can see why you don’t like doing it.”

Well my logic certainly hasn’t been torpedoed. Currently the most successful premier league coaches right now are younger than they were ten years ago. You can throw all the nuance at it that you want, but that fact won’t change. It’s not even clear what comparing managers “on equal terms” would even mean, or why it would be relevant to anything I’ve said.


“You still haven’t answered why Kiss could be a risker appointment?”

Because I’ve been talking to you about football managers. If you want to change the subject then great - I care a lot more about rugby than I do football.

But wrt Kiss, I don’t agree that 25 years experience is actually that useful, given what a different sport rugby was 25 years ago. Obviously in theory more experience can never be a bad thing, but I think 10 years of coaching experience is actually more than enough these days. Erasmus had been a coach for 13 years when he got the SA top job. Andy Farrell had been a coach for 9 when he got the Ireland job. I don’t think anyone would say that either of them were lacking in experience.


Now - what about coaches who do have 25+ years experience? The clearest example of that would be Eddie Jones, who started coaching 31 years ago. He did pretty well everywhere he worked until around 2021 (when he was 61), when results with England hit a sharp decline. He similarly oversaw a terrible run with Australia, and currently isn’t doing a great job with Japan.

Another example is Warren Gatland, who also started coaching full-time 31 years ago, after 5 years as a player-coach. Gatland did pretty well everywhere he went until 2020 (when he was 56), when he did a relatively poor job with the Chiefs, before doing a pretty poor job with the Lions, and then overseeing a genuine disaster with Wales. There are very few other examples, as most coaches retire or step back into lesser roles when they enter their 60s. Mick Byrne actually has 34 years experience in coaching (but only 23 years coaching in rugby) and at 66 he’s the oldest coach of a top 10 side, and he’s actually doing really well. He goes to show that you can continue to be a good coach well into your 60s, but he seems like an outlier.


So the point is - right now, Les Kiss looks like a pretty reliable option, but 5 years ago so did Eddie Jones and Warren Gatland before they went on to prove that coaches often decline as they get older. If Australia want Kiss as a short term appointment to take over after Schmidt leaves in the summer, I don’t think that would be a terrible idea - but NB wanted Kiss as a long term appointment starting in 2027! That’s a massive risk, given the chance that his aptitude will begin to decline.


Its kind of analagous to how players decline. We know (for example) that a fly-half can still be world class at 38, but we also know that most fly-halves peak in their mid-to-late 20s, so it is generally considered a risk to build your game plan around someone much older than that.

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NB 2 hours ago
Why Les Kiss and Stuart Lancaster can lead Australia to glory

https://www.london.edu/think/how-claudio-ranieri-transformed-leicester-city


He jts knew how to use that deep well of knowledge accumulate over many years of management. A true Moneyball story!

168 Go to comments
f
fl 3 hours ago
Why Les Kiss and Stuart Lancaster can lead Australia to glory

“Two comparable achievements 15 years apart (at different clubs in different leagues) represent failure and not continued success for an elite level coach/manager? Not even a hint of consistency? Just gradual, inevitable decline? And all because he is in his sixth decade?”

Why don’t you try reading what I wrote before you start inventing a load of other random things that I didn’t say. I said “Pep hasn’t gotten better with age”. He hasn’t. I don’t think he’s got much worse, and yeah, he’s been fairly consistent over his career and has had more success than almost any other coach. But he hasn’t gotten better.


“You’ve missed that Mourinho’s early start in football was as a translator for Bobby Robson (ironically a much older manager at the time!).”

I was actually aware of that. I didn’t mention it because it wasn’t relevant to the fact that Mourinho - aged 52 - had more experience than Arteta does at 43. It also isn’t ironic that Bobby Robson was a much older manager at the time - it actually confirms by point that a lot of the top football managers used to be older than they are today.


“You suggested that Les Kiss would not be suited to an international coaching role because of his age profile…that seemed to relate to rugby”

That did relate to rugby. Let me walk you through the thread…


NB suggested that Les Kiss should become Australia head coach in 2027.

I said: “Given the drop off so many top coaches seem to experience as they get older (e.g. Jones, Gatland) Kiss could be a riskier appointment than you’d think!”

NB said: “Drawing a parallel with the NFL and NBA, plenty of coaches stay well into their 70’s”

I said: “Not all sports are going the same way though” then gave the example of football.


The example of football was introduced in order to make the point that the age profile of managers is not the same in every sport. If you had read the thread you were replying to you would know this!

168 Go to comments
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