You don't pick Handre Pollard to score tries

Despite the idea that Erasmus keeps everyone second guessing, the repeated patterns in team naming and selection make the Springboks fairly predictable.

We know that Erasmus has the team planned out for every Test in the entire series, with mass changes due despite the result. After a loss, it is almost certain they will stick to the pre-planned teams and rotate out. The only uncertainty is when injuries strike, which on this occasion have forced Cheslin Kolbe out of the side for the second Test.

We even know how they will play in Cape Town. You don’t pick Handre Pollard to score tries. Even more so when they guy he replaced, Sacha Feinberg-Mngomezulu, is South Africa’s most talented N0.10 in generations.

With the forecast for a bit of rain and slippery conditions due in for Saturday, the Boks will double-down on the same game plan and pepper the All Blacks with high balls all afternoon and try to construct a lead through penalty goals and control the game through the set piece.

The situation is exactly the same as the Wallabies faced last year, after beating the Springboks 38-22 at Ellis Park, the second Test was in Cape Town on a heavy pitch after a downfall in the days leading up to the Test. The pitch turned muddy and made the footing for scrums difficult.

Out went Mannie Libbok, in came Handre Pollard among a host of pre-planned swaps. South Africa won 30-22 after kicking the ball 35 times.

Circumstances favoured South Africa, even though the Wallabies won in Johannesburg where there were serious casualties for the Australians.

Wing Dylan Pietsch suffered a broken jaw, No.8 Harry Wilson suffered a knee injury and prop James Slipper was sidelined due to HIA protocols.

During the Cape Town Test the injury toll went from bad to worse, electric Wallabies fullback Tom Wright went down with a serious leg injury in the third minute. Halfback Nic White failed an HIA shortly after and centre Joseph Suaalii was forced off at half-time, Taniela Tupou went down with a finger injury.

These are not injuries that the Wallabies can sustain, they were also many of the big performers from Johannesburg, yet they pushed South Africa to the brink with a seriously depleted outfit.

Australia mismanaged the scoreboard, turning down multiple kickable threes when down 13-7, which compounded when they fell behind 20-7.

Despite all that, Brandon Paenga-Amosa crashed over from a maul to bring the Wallabies within one point at 23-22 with 10 minutes to go, only for James O’Connor to push the conversion wide.

It was a game that the Wallabies had no rights to be in, yet were, right down to the dying stages.

Why is this relevant? It showed the Springboks were still terribly average and rusty after the big loss, they only just escaped the embarrassment of back-to-back losses at home to Australia.

The All Blacks are in much better health than those gritty Wallabies, with only two casualties from Ellis Park in Josh Lord and Ethan de Groot.

Odds are South Africa will still be undercooked again with Erasmus desperate to get the vets on the field.

Should Siya Kolisi play, the 35-year-old will be playing off just one half of rugby against Argentina having missed all of July.

Pieter-Steph du Toit, who has been wrapped in cotton wool by Erasmus, fought hard at Ellis Park but was nowhere near his best with four missed tackles.

Jasper Wiese wants to carry hard when he has the ball but can’t be arsed running full speed on defence when he’s needed to make a cover tackle.

Eben Etzebeth in just his second Test of the year also was inaccurate. His flying clean outs early, going off-feet, weren’t required.

The bench looks better this time around but two of the forward replacements, Thomas du Toit and Lood de Jager, are two more undercooked players with only 49 minutes of international rugby this year.

There was a fury in the early exchanges at Ellis Park, with South Africa’s defence forcing the All Blacks into gain line losses phase after phase. It was fierce and physical, but it also didn’t last. They don’t have the fuel in the tank to deliver that intensity for more than 40 minutes.

The All Blacks have to take advantage in Cape Town and seal this three-game series 2-0. What happens on South African soil is what matters, not the one-off exhibition match in Baltimore.

Rennie’s team have a great chance to replicate the 1996 team with a series win in South Africa this weekend.

They need to fortify the scrum and Patrick Tuipulotu can do that. He’s starting against the Lions so the plan must be for Tupou Vaa’i to move to lock on Saturday. Tuipulotu might be on the bench then. George Bower will likely start bringing Xavier Numia onto the bench, who was strong against the Bulls.

There won’t be pace in the pitch with rain turning the infamous Cape Town turf into a slower grind. The All Blacks need to bring their attacking kicks into the contest to score tries as it will be much harder to run phase play and strikes.

The good news is they have kicking options from 9, 10, 12, 13 and 15 that can target the space in behind and on the edges.

This will be a much closer contest and the Boks will come with more edge, similar to the second Lions Test in 2021 that ended up being a 2-hour long fiasco due to the stoppages.

Unlike the Lions or Wallabies, the All Blacks are in a better position to go back-to-back and handle the fire that is coming their way.