Top 5 winners and losers from the RWC draw
Draws are interesting. They’re usually previews of a tournament that don’t actually go remotely as you expected. This is true even in sports that don’t draw it two and a half years early, with barely half of the teams actually qualified.
Nonetheless, we feel we have pretty good grasp of who will be breathing a sigh of relief, and who will be shaking their fist at the heavens, so let’s dive in.
Winners
5. Japan – A shot at the second round
While I don’t really mean to rag on Scotland, even their most optimistic fans will admit that their status as one of the world’s top five rugby nations is a historically odd situation.
2019’s world cup hosts will be itching to make the second round for the first time in their history. Further, with South Africa having been conquered in 2015, an exhausted Cherry Blossoms side fell to Scotland four days later, laying fine groundwork for a revenge story.
Since that story would be damaged by defeat at the hands of the nation that gave Phil Godman a test career, Japan beating Scotland would rather be for the good of rugby.
4. Ireland – Aiming to win the group
They may have lost to an up and coming Scotland at Murrayfield this year, but expectations of the Scots expanding past a tough away fixture were cooled by the sudden bucket of icewater that was their 40-point loss at Twickenham.
While they didn’t win back the six nations, the Irish are high on confidence after ending their second set of opponents’ 18-match winning streaks and will be odds on to win this group.
Mostly, though, they’re pleased to avoid Argentina.
3. South Africa – Getting New Zealand over and done with
South Africa have never before faced their greatest rivals in the group stage. They are more used to either avoiding them or getting knocked out by them, as in the 2015 and 2003 tournaments. The one time the Springboks won against New Zealand in a world cup was in a final, which you may remember from that time we learned Matt Damon is the world’s greatest player.
Point being, since the Boks are unlikely to be in their mid-cup-cycle slump for the whole of the next two years, they will judge their draw based on when they play New Zealand, and even if they get thrashed by that group stage match, they will take avoiding them in the semis and quarters as fairly priced. Argentina could have been a threat, but Italy won’t be.
2. Fiji – Taking their spot back
Though the rugby fans in the proud nation of Oceania 1 must have waited with bated breath for their ball to be drawn on Wednesday, it’s extremely likely that the spot with that name will go to the current leaders of the Pacific Nations Cup.
Fiji have twice made the second round and after a disappointing 2011 tournament, were left on the qualifying outskirts for two successive tournaments including a stint in 2015’s infamous Group of Death. This time around, automatic qualification as befits Fiji’s top 10 rank is very much on the cards if they can assert themselves against the Georgians.
1. Australia – Beating up the Welsh
You may have heard over the last few months that Australian rugby is in crisis. This is because Australian rugby happens to be constantly compared to New Zealand, both domestically and internationally, which is the only comparison that they consistently lose.
The Aussies will have no fear of Wales. In 24 Tests in the professional era, just two have resulted in someone called Evans being pleased with the situation. The only team they fear is the All Blacks, who have knocked out their cousins across the Tasman in three out of the last four tournaments. But if Australia win their group, they will likely avoid the kiwis before the final.
Losers
5. Georgia – Facing Fiji
Despite having a dozen burly props scattered around the Top 14, Georgia are unlikely to press for the knockout stages having never defeated a tier 1 team.
Aiming for third place, a favourable draw would have left them needing to beat semi-professionals or their European rivals to gain automatic qualifications. So a grimace would have gone around the players’ faces when it fell to them to face the Pacific Nations cup champions.
At least, they may have been grimacing. It’s hard to tell through the beards.
4. USA – Uncertain foreign policy
The Americans find themselves in an unfortunate situation. Also, their rugby world cup draw is a bit weird.
Should this summer’s playoff against Canada result in the Eagles’ sixth successive victory over their northern neighbours, they will find themselves in a pool with not only the favoured quarter-finalists. Argentina, a nation whose second team regularly defeat the Americans mid season will be there to take over hopes of a prized third place and qualifying spot.
It is very hard for either North American side to not qualify – even losing the Americas 2 playoff against the top South American team would allow them to try their luck in the repechage. So losing the Americas 1 place to Canada, and going into a pool with Georgia and Fiji to compete for third with, might be a work of tactical genius.
‘Whoops, I appear to have accidentally kicked the ball over my own try line. How embarrassing would it be for someone to run onto that ball and score. No, don’t get up.”
3. England – The return of the Group of Death
The 2015 world cup is an event that this English writer has determined did not happen, and as a result, we have no evidence to suggest that a group with three of the top nine teams in it is in any way a danger to them.
More seriously, England’s group isn’t quite as tough as the previous one, Wales having a much more evenly matched record against their old rivals than the Argentinians do. But unlike 2015 this pool contains no ‘relief’ match against Uruguay, with Samoa and USA being the most likely lower tier opponents. With two must-win hard tests, the physicality of the Samoans and the pace of the USA they will find no pushovers.
2. Italy – Better luck next time
Yes, Italy beat South Africa in November. No, it won’t happen again any time soon. The world’s 15th ranked and sort-of-tier-one-but-not-really nation would much rather have a go at former Six Nations spoon winners Wales, France or Scotland.
The only thing keeping L’Azzurri from the top spot here is that there are no dangerous Islander sides in pool B to take their automatic qualifying place. So they can at least lick their wounds, mourn the probable loss of Sergio Parisse and return in 2023. Probably drawn against New Zealand again.
1. France – Hernandez-induced trauma
Nobody wants to play Argentina, is the point I’m making. I’m sure you get it. And ever since the French lost twice to Juan Martin Hernandez’ inspired performances at home in 2007, the Pumas have been a dangerous hazard at world cups.
Since then, the Argentinians have looked somewhat lacklustre in end of year internationals, but they have officially joined the top brass and recorded wins over Australia and South Africa. France have gone downhill, struggling to break the top half of the six nations, and could easily have been in the third pot themselves were it not for a bizarre 100th-minute finish against Wales.
While England will wince at the number of tough games in Pool C, Les Bleus will be in real danger of the early exit.
They’ll probably win the whole thing.
Comments on RugbyPass
🤦♂️🤣 who cares who’s the best . All I know is the All Blacks have the star coach but have few star players now …
27 Go to commentsJe suis sûr que Farrell est impatient de jouer avec Lopez et Machenaud et d’être entraîné par Collazo… 🤭
1 Go to commentsAn on field red (aka a full red) in SRP must surely carry a bigger suspension than a red card given by the bunker as that carries a 20 minute team punishment. Had Damon Murphy abdicated his responsibility as a ref and issued both Drua players a yellow, which would have been upgraded to a 20 minute red by the bunker, that would have killed Australia and New Zealand’s push for the 20 minute red to be trialled globally from July this year.
11 Go to commentsEver so often you all post a Danny Care story that isn’t the announcement that he has finally re-signed for one more, victory tour season at Quins and I’m just like, “well you fooled me again!” My absolute favorite player ever, we need to make his final year at the Stoop (and Twickers) official already. I know he supposedly snubbed France but I won’t feel better until he signs.
1 Go to commentslate hit what late hit it wasn’t at all late and can clearly see he was committed before the tackle
1 Go to commentsChristian Lio -Willies 2 try perfomance was a standout. As was captain Scott Barrett. Up front was where the boys won it.They are a great team and players. Fantastic Crusades , you can keep going.
1 Go to commentsI don't know how the locals feel about that? I guess if you call yourselves the Worcester Wasps that might be appease. But really we need more teams in the Premiership in my view so they are not padding it out as they are at the moment. It might curtail so many players going abroad as well
5 Go to commentsNZ 😭😭😭is certainly rivaling England for best whingers cup!😭😭😭 !!!
27 Go to commentsYup. New Zealand won 3 out of 10 world cups played. SA 4 out of 8 attempts 30 Vs 50 per cent.🤔🤔
27 Go to commentsShould've done this years ago. Change Saturday kick off times to around 11am. Up and off and back home before 3pm, limit travel time too. Allows players to actually do something else with their Saturday that's family oriented or being rugby fans they could ‘watch’ pro rugby. Increases crowds etc. How can anyone that enjoys grassroots and pro rugby have to choose between the two on Saturdays?
9 Go to commentsI bet he inspired those supporters just as much.
1 Go to commentsBen Smith Springboks living rent free in his head 😊😂
67 Go to commentsGood to hear he would like to play the game at the highest level, I hadn’t been to sure how much of a motivator that was before now. Sadly he’s probably chosen the rugby club to go to. Try not to worry about all the input about how you should play rugby Joey and just try to emulate what you do on the league field and have fun. You’ll limit your game too much (well not really because he’s a standard athlete like SBW and he’ll still have enough) if you’re trying to make sure you can recycle the ball back etc. On the other hard, you can totally just try and recycle by looking to offload any and everywhere if you’re going to ground 😋
1 Go to commentsThis just proves that theres always a stat and a metric to use to justify your abilities and your success. Ben did it last week by creating an imaginary competition and now you did the same to counter his argument and espouse a new yardstick for success. Why not just use the current one and lets say the Boks have won 4 world cups making them the most successful world cup team. Outside of the world cup the All Blacks are the most successful team winning countless rugby championships and dominating the rankings with high win percentages. Over the last 4 years statistically the Irish are the best having the highest win rate and also having positive records against every tier 1 side. The most successful Northern team in the game has been England with a world cup title and the most six nations titles in history. The AB’s are the most dominant team in history with the highest win rate and 3 world cups. Lets not try to reinvent the wheel. Just be honest about the actual stats and what each team has been good at doing and that will be enough to define their level of success.
27 Go to commentsHow is 7’s played there? I’m surprised 10 or 11 man rugby hasn’t taken off. 7 just doesn’t fit the 15s dynamics (rules n field etc) but these other versions do.
9 Go to commentsPick Swinton at your peril A liability just like JWH from the Roosters Skelton ??? went missing at RWC
14 Go to commentsLike tennis, who have a ranking system, and I believe rugby too, just measure over each period preceding a world cup event who was the longest number one and that would be it. In tennis the number one player frequently is not the grand slam winner. I love and adore the All Blacks since the days of Ian Kirkpatrick when I was a kid in SA. And still do because they are the masters of running rugby and are gentleman on and off the field - in general. And in my opinion they have been the majority of the time the best rugby team in the world.
27 Go to commentsHaving overseas possessions in 2024 is absurd. These Frenchies should have to give the New Caledonians their freedom.
21 Go to commentsBell injured his foot didn’t he? Bring Tupou in he’ll deliver when it counts. Agree mostly but I would switch in the Reds number 8 Harry Wilson for Swinton and move Rob Valentini to 6 instead. Wilson is a clever player who reads the play, you can’t outmuscle the AB’s and Springboks, if you have any chance it’s by playing clever. Same goes for Paisami, he’s a little guy who doesn’t really trouble the likes of De Allende and Jordie Barrett. I’d rather play Carter Gordon at 12 and put Michael Lynagh’s boy at 10. That way you get a BMT type goalkicker at 10 and a playmaker at 12. Anyways, just my two cents as a Bok supporter.
14 Go to commentsThanks Brett, love your articles which are alway pertinent. It’s a difficult topic trying to have a panel adjudicating consistently penalties for red card issues. Many of the mitigating reasons raised are judged subjectively, hence the different outcomes. How to take away subjective opinions?
11 Go to comments