This Weekend's Four Must-Watch Super Rugby Matches

Paul Neazor previews some tantalising Super Rugby match-ups this weekend, including a rematch of the thrilling 2015 final.

Crusaders vs Blues (Friday, Christchurch)
The Blues won the first two matches at Christchurch but since then the Crusaders have won nine of the last ten matches they’ve hosted in this series. The Blues have not won at Christchurch since 2004. So the Crusaders will  be hot favourites… right?

Not so fast. The Blues were value for their win last week against the defending champs, and got it the hard way – by attacking when they could, kicking most of their goals and defending when they had to on a muggy, sticky evening. The Crusaders battled hard against the Chiefs, but couldn’t hold them over the closing stages on an extremely hot night.

Of the two, the Blues were more impressive. It took some moments of rare skill for the Highlanders to unlock the defence, and the aggressive defence through the third quarter went a long way to deciding the game. The Chiefs did the same to the Crusaders, who couldn’t counter.

I’m picking the Blues to take this, despite it being in Christchurch and against a Crusaders team that’s 0-1. If they can gain parity up front, those big backs will be tiring to defend against all night, and they’ll bash some holes. The Blues might be a little better than I thought, and I didn’t think they were going to be a rabble this year.

Pick: Blues by 6.

Brumbies vs Waratahs (Friday, Canberra)
Since this fixture sees the home team win more often than any other in the competition, you’d be starting the Brumbies as favourites on the score of history. Since we watched them hammer the Hurricanes in the opener by 50 points and do it without letting up, you’d give them a few points for form. And after watching the Waratahs beat the Reds without ever threatening to roll over the top of them, you’d give the Brumbies another couple of points for intensity.

Although it’s only round two, this match could give the first major sign as to which side will top the Australian conference and therefore gain by far the easier playoff route. I’m picking the Brumbies to win; if they win well it could be a big warning sign to the field. If they win without dominating, or without trying to play much footy, they will be vulnerable to the good teams. Frankly, if the Waratahs win it will be a surprise.

Pick: Brumbies by 15.

Chiefs vs Lions (Saturday, Hamilton)
Until recently, you’d have checked the box marked ‘Chiefs by plenty’ and moved right on. But the last couple of years should have encouraged everyone to take a longer look at this game.

The Lions have been strong at home for two or three seasons now. Last year they went 3-4 on their antipodean tour; an all-time best for the Johannesburg team in Super rugby. They’ve won a couple of Currie Cups too, so the lack of showcase names doesn’t necessarily mean a lack of talent. Or ticker … the Lions have plenty of bottle.

But the Chiefs looked good at Addington in uncomfortable heat last weekend, eventually rolling over the Crusaders to claim a meritorious win. It was hard work, but the work was done and the right team won, by about the right amount.

I’d be surprised if the Lions won this game, despite the fact I rate them as one of the better South African teams. But it won’t be easy, and the Chiefs will have to put a lot of effort and concentration into the 80 minutes to get that win.

Pick: Chiefs by 12.

Highlanders vs Hurricanes (Saturday, Dunedin)
The replay of the 2015 final will be eagerly anticipated, although both sides go into the match having dropped their openers. The difference was the Highlanders were close throughout the match at Auckland, while the Hurricanes got pasted at Canberra.

Given that the Dunedin weather may be hot and sticky on Saturday, playing at Auckland may have been a good opener for the Highlanders. More to the point, the fact that they took a committed opponent to the wire suggests they were more in tune with the demands of competition play than the Hurricanes. You never do much right if you go under by 50.

I’m taking the Highlanders here, but not by all that much. No fewer than 14 of the last 15 matches have been decided by seven points or less; this could well be another one of those games.

Pick: Highlanders by 3