Jake White: My glaring concern hanging over the Boks before decider

Having coached in the Top 14 with Montpellier, I always like to keep an eye on affairs in France. With the first round of games, the standout fixture was La Rochelle’s last-gasp 30-27 win over superclub, Toulouse.

At the end of the game, Ugo Mola, their head coach, was apoplectic. He’d seen his star-studded side lose to Ronan O’Gara’s men with the last kick of the match. What was interesting was his ire was directed squarely at his bench and the lack of impact they’d made in the game. He lambasted them.

It got me thinking about Rugby’s Greatest Rivalry. The third and deciding Test was the first where I thought the All Blacks looked a bit flat in those 20 minutes. They’d been finishing off Tests the stronger team in the preceding two Tests, so did their use of replacements weaken them? When commentators throw into conversation, ‘here comes the Bomb squad, or ‘here comes the bench’, I’m not sure if the average rugby fan in the street knows what is meant by that.

If you look at the bare facts, New Zealand have outscored the Springboks 13 tries to eight and they have a better points difference. Indeed, the stats are pretty even yet the most important statistic of all is they are 2-1 down in the Test Series. That’s all that matters.

So why did the All Blacks run out of steam and blow a historic Series win? Travel may have been a factor. The All Blacks decided to travel up on Wednesday, whereas the Springboks went straight back to Jo’Burg on a Sunday after the second Test. Sports scientists will say you either go as early as you can or as late as you can to acclimatise to altitude. Dave Rennie also kept the same backline so were they blowing late on, having opted not to inject new energy? That could have been a factor. I think that made me think about the number of Test caps on the bench. Interestingly, the Boks had nearly 30 caps per player on average. Take out Anton Lienert-Brown’s 91 caps, and the average for the All Blacks would have been 19. It maybe marginal, but it makes a difference.

Fixture

Internationals

South Africa

14:00

12 Sep 26

New Zealand

All Stats and Data

So, what is the purpose of the bench? Sometimes it’s to kill the game. Sometimes it’s to protect the lead. Sometimes it’s to chase the lead. There are no set rules. Sometimes players come on in dribs and drabs in the last 20 minutes for tactical reasons, and other times it’s en masse to intimidate the opposition. That image of four, five or six heavily muscled players entering the fray is iconic, especially in South Africa. As I say, there’s no right or wrong way to go about it.

One thing I’d say, however, is that it’s a learnt skill knowing when to introduce the right player. Personally, I felt like I needed to get out of my own half first before making a replacement because I didn’t want their first action to be in a position where they could lose the game, or they’re rusty. Each to their own.

Then, of course, you could have a set-piece orientated bench, with a 6-2 or even 7-1 split. If you’re on your own try line under the pump and you have that explosive energy they can bring, why not introduce it? If you have a team full of athletes, you may try to avoid set-piece play and the bench has to understand how to exploit the opposition in space. The point I’m making is you have to coach your bench. Perhaps there’s not enough time spent in coaching on the role of the numbers 16-23. What do they do collectively? The magic isn’t just going to happen and I’d love to see how much onus goes on behind closed doors on that aspect of the game.

From personal experience, there is no hard and fast rule when to introduce a player. It’s a gut feeling. Sometimes you brief a player that he’s going to come on in the 55th minute, but sometimes with an injury or tactical switch, you throw him on at a different time and he has to be prepared mentally. A coach has to have the feel for how the game is going. It’s about trusting your players and imbuing in them the confidence that they are a solution to problems under pressure. That’s the art of coaching.

As for Baltimore, Rassie would have spent plenty of time on the flight Stateside processing the last three Tests. He is a bright coach and would acknowledge that the All Blacks are on an upward curve. You’d be daft to disagree with that. I listened to a podcast earlier this week, where the gist was, if New Zealand can get a world-class scrum and a maul, they are going to take some stopping and it’s true. At least they know where they need to improve and they have a year to work on that. Come Australia, with a clean bill of health they’ll have a fit and firing Ethan de Groot, Tamatai Williams, Codie Taylor, Patrick Tuipulotu and Scott Barrett back in the mix in that tight five.

Of course, they can’t turn things around in a week with a few scrum sessions, but I have no doubt that they will be working late into the night on finding fixes with their franchises over the next 12 months. Dave Rennie was a very successful age-grade coach and will be putting into place an action-plan to give them a more effective scrum.

I met with Dave here in South Africa and he actually told me they were going to run the Springboks off their feet at altitude in that third Test and if you watched the first 20 minutes, it was the perfect example of them executing a gameplan. They looked untouchable against the best team in the world in that opening quarter and played some sensational rugby. They will play the Boks before the World Cup to see if they’re making any gains and the Springboks will have to keep their noses in front.

Looking at the side for Saturday, Rassie has made his intentions clear about this fourth and final Test. He wants a 3-1 Series win. He’s not messing around. He hasn’t made wholesale changes and it’s going to be a true test of how well those two sides can recover because crossing continents takes it out of you.

I have a word for Leroy Carter after those two missed tackles. As a coach, you don’t need to say anything. Nothing you can say will make it better or worse. He’s played the game long enough and knows he needs to improve but overall, I think the All Blacks have exceeded expectations. A good chunk of the Springbok fanbase were predicting a 4-0 whitewash, but most neutrals would now say a 2-2 draw would be a fair reflection because the games have been super competitive. Indeed, some thought they would never win a Test in South Africa, but they did with a 15-point margin.

As for the Springbok players, well they’ve gone to the well, again. I wondered if Jesse Kriel’s Test career was coming to an end but the two line-breaks he made were the difference between the sides. He’s been written off time and time again and proved his doubters wrong.

After a huge Series, I also wonder whether Malcolm Marx has another 80 minutes in him, because alongside De Allende and Kriel, they have been the glue of this side, alongside (Eben) Etzebeth and (Siya) Kolisi. They’ve somehow got the Boks over the line in the toughest of situations. How much mileage they have left in their legs is an answer none of us can give.

De Allende and Kriel will be relied on to go again, with Esterhuizen – if he’s not on the flank – as cover, and Ethan Hooker could move in one, if Kriel is crocked.

Overall, it’s been a magnificent series, and I hope it ends with a bang in Baltimore.