The Springboks prediction Bryan Habana has made about Eben Etzebeth

“The gap between wins ignores the finals contested. 2 in 2 years with his City Triumph. The most recent put him in the elite company of managers to have won it with multiple clubs. Yet more late career success and history.”

Again - you’re not correct. City won the CL in 2023, and made the final in 2021. Those are the only two CL finals they have made.”

So the difference between 2021 and 2023 would of course be TWO YEARS. 24 months would account for 3 different seasons. They contested ECL finals twice in two years. The first in 2021 - which they lost - was still the first elite European final in the clubs then 141 year history. Explain clearly how that’s not an achievement? Guess what age he was then…

“I think your take on Gatland is pretty silly. Gatland was without Edwards in the 2013 and 2017 Lions tours and managed to do alright.”

I thought you don’t care what certain managers did 10 years ago…

Why would I address Eddie Jones? Why would he be deserving of a single sentence?

“I am aware Les Kiss has achieved great things in his career, but I don’t care what he did over ten years ago. Rugby was a different sport back then.”

So you haven’t watched even a minute of Super Rugby this year?

“lol u really need to chill out”

Simply frightful! If you’re not a bot you’re at least Gen-Z?

“The gap between wins ignores the finals contested. 2 in 2 years with his City Triumph. The most recent put him in the elite company of managers to have won it with multiple clubs. Yet more late career success and history.”

Again - you’re not correct. City won the CL in 2023, and made the final in 2021. Those are the only two CL finals they have made. With Barcelona, Pep made the semi final four consecutive times - with City he’s managed only 3 in 8 years. This year they didn’t even make the round of 16.

To re-cap, you wrote that Pep “has gotten better with age. By every measure.” There are some measures that support what you’re saying, but the vast majority of the measures that you have highlighted actually show the opposite.

I am aware Les Kiss has achieved great things in his career, but I don’t care what he did over ten years ago. Rugby was a different sport back then.

I think your take on Gatland is pretty silly. Gatland was without Edwards in the 2013 and 2017 Lions tours and managed to do alright. You’ve also not addressed Eddie Jones.

I agree wrt Schmidt. He would ideally be retained, but it wouldn’t work to have a remote head coach. He should definitely be hired as a consultant/analyst/selector though.

“Look at the talent that would be discarded in Schmidt and Kiss if your age Nazism was applied.”

lol u really need to chill out lad. Kiss and Schmidt would both be great members of the coaching set up in 2025, but it would be ridiculous to bank on either to retain the head coach role until 2031.

His time with City - a lower win ratio compared to Bayern Munich as you say - includes a 100 PT season. A feat that will likely never be surpassed. I appreciate you don’t follow soccer too closely but even casual fans refer to the sport in ‘pre and post Pep’ terms and all because of what he has achieved and is continuing to achieve, late career. There is a reason that even U10’s play out from the back now at every level of the game. That’s also a fairly recent development.

How refreshing to return to rugby on a rugby forum.

Ireland won a long over due slam in 2009. The last embers of a golden generation was kicked on by a handful of young new players and a new senior coach. Kiss was brought in as defence coach and was the reason they won it. They’d the best defence in the game at the time. He all but invented the choke tackle. Fittingly they backed it up in the next world cup in their 2011 pool match against… Australia. The instantly iconic image of Will Genia getting rag-dolled by Stephen Ferris.

His career since has even included director of rugby positions. He would have an extremely good idea of where the game is at and where it is going in addition to governance experience and dealings. Not least in Oz were many of the players will have come via or across Rugby League pathways.

Gatland isn’t a valid coach to compare too. He only ever over-achieved and was barely schools level without Shaun Edwards at club or test level. His return to Wales simply exposed his limitations and a chaotic union. It wasn’t age.

Schmidt is open to staying involved in a remote capacity which I think deserves more attention. It would be a brain drain to lose him. He stepped in to coach the ABs in the first 2022 test against Ireland when Foster was laid out with Covid. They mullered Ireland 42-19. He was still heavily involved in the RWC 2023 quarter final. Same story.

Look at the talent that would be discarded in Schmidt and Kiss if your age Nazism was applied.

Best they stick to the inferior SH comps that make them feel good about themselves. And allows their ignorant supporters to spew an inordinate amount of nonsensical shite. As they do.

“He then won 3 leagues on the bounce later in his career”

He won 3 leagues on the bounce at the start of his career too - (2009, 2010, 2011).

If we’re judging him by champions league wins, he peaked in his late 30s, early 40s. If we’re judging him by domestic titles he’s stayed pretty consistent over his career. If we’re judging him by overall win rate he peaked at Bayern, and was better at Barcelona than at City. So no, he hasn’t gotten better by every measure.

“You mentioned coaches were older around the mid-2010’s compared to the mid-2000’s. Robson was well above the average age you’ve given for those periods even in the 90’s when in his pomp.”

Robson was 63-64 when he was at Barcelona, so he wasn’t very old. But yeah, he was slightly above the average age of 60 I gave for the top 4 premier league coaches in 2015, and quite a bit above the averages for 2005 and 2025.

“Also, comparing coaches - and their experiences, achievements - at different ages is unstable. It’s not a valid way to compare and tends to torpedo your own logic when you do compare them on equal terms. I can see why you don’t like doing it.”

Well my logic certainly hasn’t been torpedoed. Currently the most successful premier league coaches right now are younger than they were ten years ago. You can throw all the nuance at it that you want, but that fact won’t change. It’s not even clear what comparing managers “on equal terms” would even mean, or why it would be relevant to anything I’ve said.

“You still haven’t answered why Kiss could be a risker appointment?”

Because I’ve been talking to you about football managers. If you want to change the subject then great - I care a lot more about rugby than I do football.

But wrt Kiss, I don’t agree that 25 years experience is actually that useful, given what a different sport rugby was 25 years ago. Obviously in theory more experience can never be a bad thing, but I think 10 years of coaching experience is actually more than enough these days. Erasmus had been a coach for 13 years when he got the SA top job. Andy Farrell had been a coach for 9 when he got the Ireland job. I don’t think anyone would say that either of them were lacking in experience.

Now - what about coaches who do have 25+ years experience? The clearest example of that would be Eddie Jones, who started coaching 31 years ago. He did pretty well everywhere he worked until around 2021 (when he was 61), when results with England hit a sharp decline. He similarly oversaw a terrible run with Australia, and currently isn’t doing a great job with Japan.

Another example is Warren Gatland, who also started coaching full-time 31 years ago, after 5 years as a player-coach. Gatland did pretty well everywhere he went until 2020 (when he was 56), when he did a relatively poor job with the Chiefs, before doing a pretty poor job with the Lions, and then overseeing a genuine disaster with Wales. There are very few other examples, as most coaches retire or step back into lesser roles when they enter their 60s. Mick Byrne actually has 34 years experience in coaching (but only 23 years coaching in rugby) and at 66 he’s the oldest coach of a top 10 side, and he’s actually doing really well. He goes to show that you can continue to be a good coach well into your 60s, but he seems like an outlier.

So the point is - right now, Les Kiss looks like a pretty reliable option, but 5 years ago so did Eddie Jones and Warren Gatland before they went on to prove that coaches often decline as they get older. If Australia want Kiss as a short term appointment to take over after Schmidt leaves in the summer, I don’t think that would be a terrible idea - but NB wanted Kiss as a long term appointment starting in 2027! That’s a massive risk, given the chance that his aptitude will begin to decline.

Its kind of analagous to how players decline. We know (for example) that a fly-half can still be world class at 38, but we also know that most fly-halves peak in their mid-to-late 20s, so it is generally considered a risk to build your game plan around someone much older than that.