The numbers behind the Wallabies’ uphill battle against the Springboks

The Wallabies are on a five-game unbeaten streak; four of those results have come under new head coach Les Kiss, and it must be said, the vibes are positive.

Kiss, like his predecessor Joe Schmidt, has really promoted the belief he has in the squad and the belief the Wallabies players have in themselves- with this mantra allowing Kiss to seriously shake up the Wallaby playbook.

“We’re more capable of mixing our team up than we think,” Kiss said ahead of the trip to Argentina.

Kiss lived up to his belief in the team and his statement, proving it in Argentina.

An average of 13 changes from Test match to Test Match during his four-game tenure, with a high of 15 changes in the matchday 23s from the first and second games against Los Pumas.

While this is a number purely based on what number was on the back of a player’s jersey, the number nonetheless vindicates Kiss in his “experimentation” with his squad.

Experimentation has been a buzzword Kiss has been quick to separate himself and his methods from, preferring to use terms like ‘exploration.’

“Are they experiments? I think there’s a lot of good men in that team that know they can flex into different positions, so I like to think that it’s more than just experimentation,” he said.

“It’s just having a real trust and faith that they can do this in different ways, and that we don’t lose momentum about what we are and what we do.

“So I’m not rebutting the word, but I’m just saying I think it’s more that we trust that we have a different way that we can use our resources. That’s what I’m trying to make sure we understand.”

How these changes look on the team sheet is one thing; how it looks in terms of Test cap count is another; 654 caps were fielded against Japan in his first match as coach, 406 of those were in the starting XV.

If we compare that with the last game of the four-match run, a total of 640 caps were fielded, with 551 being in the starting XV.

The bench in Mendoza at the weekend was the most inexperienced it has been under Kiss. 

It had fewer than half the caps of the benches from the games in Jujuy and Townsville, and almost three times as few caps as the one in Osaka.

To put a number on that, it had 89 caps compared to 185, 196, and 248 respectively; those are stark differences in the ability to close out a game and experience.

This was not helped by having to put his favoured halfback into flyhalf with significant minutes left on the clock, but the Wallabies managed to secure a draw, a result they are all a little disappointed with.

Despite the draw, the Wallabies ultimately won the series in Argentina, securing the first piece of silverware for Rugby Australia HQ for some time, but Kiss still has his most difficult block of games ahead of him.

Los Pumas were the litmus test, and although they were missing 12 regular starters from their squad, the results in Argentina at least show the Wallabies are on the up.

However, it is a long, long way to the top, and no higher does it get than the reigning world champion Springboks, who the Wallabies face on September 27.

That Test is then followed by a two-game Bledisloe series against the All Blacks two weeks later.

Kiss will quickly need to consolidate what he and his coaching team have learnt from this four-match block and look forward to the most gruelling patch of matches they will face ahead of the Rugby World Cup.

Here are the numbers of the Kiss tenure so far:

Scoring a total of 21 tries and conceding 14 is a decent-looking ledger, but 14 is a few too many for Kiss and new defence coach Scott McLeod to condone moving forward. 

At set-piece time, things are looking a little better.

While the challenges are only set to get sterner at set piece against scrummaging powerhouse South Africa, the Wallabies should be confident that their sweeping front row changes each week have given them options aplenty.

Similarly, the second row and hooker options have been far from stable, and a lineout percentage that has not dipped below 88% is reassuring, to say the least.

In attack, the picture looks bleaker, as Kiss’s desire to see the Wallabies go forward has not necessarily translated onto the field.

There are a few things that should be concerning about these numbers.

Managing only four line breaks against Argentina, with an average of 6.8 per game, is poor.

Beating 52 defenders is a major outlier and can be an aspirational goal, but also an insane number; if you average the data from the other three matches, beating 17.6 is not particularly reassuring either.

Perhaps most concerning of all, though, is the post-contact metres.

Making around 4m per carry is the consensus for the gold standard at Test level; the Wallabies averaged 2.3m per carry across the four games.

If you reach that 4m per carry, you are guaranteed front-foot ball and an ability to play on top of opposition.

If we compare the Wallabies’ average with those of the All Blacks and the Springboks in their three Tests so far, the mountain left to climb for Kiss and his men becomes uncomfortably stark.

The All Blacks managed an average of eight line breaks, and the Springboks managed an average of six line breaks per game against one another.

In terms of defenders beaten, the numbers were very high: the All Blacks beat an average of 32 defenders per game, and the Springboks managed ten fewer, with 22 defenders per game on average.

However, here comes the sucker punch: the post-contact metres.

Just by watching the games, you can feel, see, and sense the ferocity, aggression, power, and intent in the contacts made in these Greatest Rivalry Tour Tests, and you already feel the Pumas and Wallabies are miles away from that.

The All Blacks managed an average of 2.8m per carry against the best defence in the world.

Conversely, the Springboks managed a whopping 3.0m per carry against the second-best team in the world.

The Wallabies, as a collective and as individual athletes, are not offering enough with the ball in hand.

These numbers can be improved by greater teamwork in their pods and by improving their running lines, but it is also a matter of selection.

If there was any more context needed before we go on, the All Blacks and Springboks are playing the best and second-best in the world, respectively; the Wallabies secured their stats against no.12 and no.7 in the world; the latter was missing 12 of their regular starters to boot.

If Kiss wants his men to go forward with ball in hand, he must start selecting his gainline winners; there’s no two ways about it.

This means calling in more powerful athletes in the backs, and selecting the big men he has in his wider squad in the pack.

In defence, the Wallabies have improved, and despite what Schmidt used to say about “improvement not being linear,” the Wallabies are very much trending in one direction, up, under the new McLeod defence system.

The defensive percentage tells you little in isolation, but when connected with the line breaks conceded, it can paint you a better picture, and it shows that the Wallabies are improving steadily in their connection despite their varied lineups.

This will buoy McLeod and Kiss; if we infer that the undermanned Pumas are still a stronger side than Japan, ranked five teams below them, then the ability to find improving connection is a really good sign.

It means that McLeod is cutting through with his detail to the wider squad, not just the matchday players.

This is most starkly reflected in the post-contact metres conceded across the four games; the lower numbers against the Pumas two weeks in a row are a great sign.

This is particularly so considering Argentina selected their biggest and heaviest team for the last game in Mendoza, and nonetheless, the Wallabies managed to keep them to just 1.7m per carry on average.

What is also clear from the table is that, regardless of who the Wallabies play, their magic number of conceding 22 points still remains a strong indicator of success.

Should the Wallabies concede more than 22 points, then their chance of winning a Test match significantly decreases.

Just look at their Tests stretching back to the beginning of 2025.

In 2025, the Wallabies’ opponents scored 22 points or more on 12 occasions, and the Wallabies lost 10 of those matches, making for an 83% loss rate when opponents score more than 22 points.

In 2026, the Wallabies’ opponents scored 22 points or more on four occasions; the Wallabies lost two of them, won one, and drew one, making for a win rate of only 25%.

It is clear that while the Wallabies defence is improving, they must get better at keeping sides out of their 22m zone because once they enter, the Wallabies are still too porous.

Finally, the miscellaneous numbers from the four matches.

The discipline is looking steady if not one or two too many penalties conceded per game; but the cards are a worrying pattern.

The turnovers conceded will be something for forward coaches John Ulugia, Tom Donnelly, and Jonny Fisher to consider; both the All Blacks and the Springboks have excellent turnover merchants aplenty.

The Kicks are something to continue to work on, as are the territory figures.

Again, in isolation these stats mean very little, but in the context of Kiss continually citing a need to improve the game-driving aspect of the Wallabies, he is demanding his game drivers to get his team into the right parts of the field and stay there.

To date, the Wallabies have played too much rugby in their own half, and usually lose the kicking battles they are a part of.

This is a big work on for the Wallabies and their coaches, because unless they can learn to control the skies, they will find it too difficult to pin the All Blacks and impossible to contain the Springboks.

With all these numbers now in front of us, it is clear that the Wallabies have a lot of work to do on the field, and Kiss has a lot to workshop ahead of this next block of games.

The Wallabies are trending mostly in the right direction, but for all the competition that Kiss has been building in camp, it’s time that his best matchday 23 steps forward and delivers.

There is so much in these numbers that shows the Wallabies’ chopping and changing at the selection table has not allowed a baseline to be discovered, not a ceiling.

The true benefits, if any, from this tactic of Kiss will not be revealed until later in the year, but the pressure is on right now, and the Wallabies are about to find out if they can cut it with the best, one way or another.