Trying to withstand the Springboks shove is not working

The third Test between the All Blacks and Springboks once again highlighted the key difference at scrum time, which proved to be an advantage for South Africa.

They won four penalties off the scrum, rewarded for their dominance, which put the spotlight back on the All Blacks’ ball handling.

Every knock-on is amplified against South Africa; the clock is lost and 30-40 metres of territory nearly every time when a penalty is conceded. You don’t just lose possession; you lose pressure, territory and momentum as well.

Perhaps New Zealand has miscalculated the value, but it’s clear they have to avoid being ‘taken into the gutters’, so to speak, as it is a place they can’t get out of easily.

When Tupou Vaa’i dropped a potential walk-in try, the All Blacks lost about 70 metres over the next five minutes of play as back-to-back-to-back penalties allowed piggybacks all the way downfield. Starting, of course, with the scrum penalty.

Again, when Will Jordan coughed up possession inside the five early in the second half, the scrum penalty bailed South Africa out of trouble. There was no exit box kick to counter-attack from. There was no lineout 30-40m out to attack from. The second-order impact is magnified greatly.

The Springboks have a formula, and it works; without going into the mysterious technical details of scrummaging, there appears to be one massive difference in tactics.

South Africa are aggressive at scrum time in an exit zone or red zone, looking to shove right at the jump, pushing at times even before the feed. You see the feet trying to edge forward and the power coming through. They want to crush them from the jump. The intent is massively different.

The All Blacks, on the other hand, are trying to withstand the shove, a passive approach. They want a stable platform and are trying to bunker down and withstand the heat.

When New Zealand has the feed, they are effective at keeping the scrum stable. They control the timing and, as such, seem to have it worked out. On one occasion, Roigard refused to feed the scrum due to an early push.

Against the feed when it’s not on their timing, that’s when the issues come. The passive approach is not working in New Zealand’s favour. Sometimes the best form of defence is attack, to fight fire with fire. It’s clear that just trying to hold the Springboks’ shove is not getting results, especially when you know it’s coming on your own five.

It’s clear a rethink is required, and tactical adjustments must happen.

In terms of personnel, it might be time to give Tyrel Lomax a spell and start Fletcher Newell, who seems better at nullifying Ox Nche. Lomax off the bench against Steenekamp is a match-up he has an advantage in.

With Ardie Savea and Luke Jacobson out for the fourth Test, the All Blacks will have a completely new back row for the first time this year.

Ethan Blackadder is the best option for the No.7 jersey to play the same role that Jacobson has, which requires a lot of grunt work at the breakdown. Peter Lakai is best at No.8, with Sititi on the bench. That leaves Tupou Vaa’i at blindside flanker, where he performed well at Ellis Park.

Vaa’i has not been secure in the second row, struggling with the restarts. The Boks avoided going to Sam Darry on the restart and instead targeted the middle and Vaa’i’s side. The disappointment for Vaa’i is that two years ago in South Africa he was the best forward.

After the first Test, Josh Moorby was sent to the bench for Leroy Carter, who was supposed to have more defensive resolve. There is a lot to like about what Carter has brought to the All Blacks, but unfortunately for Carter, that didn’t prove to be an accurate assessment on the defensive side.

One wonders whether he is better off going for a chop tackle to at least bring the attacker down. If he slips off the tackle, at least the momentum is stopped, and another player can close in.

Carter had some great moments in attack, involved in setting up two of the All Blacks’ tries, and he constantly nails the long kick on the left side from a wide exit.

The bizarre thing with Carter is that the All Blacks have lost all three of his starts against the Springboks. At Eden Park last year, Rieko Ioane was on the wing, and in the first Test it was Josh Moorby.

Emoni Narawa in for Will Jordan and Josh Moorby in for Leroy Carter, and Rieko Ioane in at centre for the injured Tupaea, is an intriguing mix.

With the Springboks winning the series on South African soil 2-1, more changes by Rennie, some forced, some unforced, could be the antidote to salvage the fourth Test.