The Laumape vs SBW debate - who should get the All Black 12 jumper
With Ma’a Nonu back in Super Rugby, along with regular All Blacks Anton Lienert-Brown, Jack Goodhue and Ryan Crotty, there is plenty of competition for mid-field spots for this year’s World Cup. However, the most intriguing battle is shaping to be between Sonny Bill Williams and Ngani Laumape for the number 12 jersey.
The pressure is mounting on incumbent midfielder Williams to retain his starting All Blacks jersey in what could be his final year in New Zealand Rugby, with 25-year-old Hurricanes midfielder Laumape continuing to push his case with destructive performances in Super Rugby.
It is hard not to be seduced by the explosive power-packed Laumape, who put up a monster 162-metres in a three-try performance against the Brumbies over the weekend.
He has consistently shown the ability to bulldoze over just about anyone since his breakout season in 2017, scoring 16-tries in a record-setting season. His 156 defenders beaten since debuting in Super Rugby is in the top five in the competition over that time.
He has added strings to his bow last year at the Hurricanes, showing off a cross-field kick regularly, taking on first receiver duties, playing the midfielder role out the back of pods, while his offloading ability has always been there.
Laumape’s tailored role at the Hurricanes affords him numerous opportunities on the edge, usually after an opposition exit kick, playing to his strengths as a former NRL-winger. It is misleading to just take his numbers at face value, as a lot of his production comes from storming down the sideline as a winger.
This isn’t to take away from his impact – it has been a masterstroke strategic ploy by the Hurricanes, easing Laumape’s transition from rugby league while at the same time innovating the modern-day midfielder.
They have designed a role to fit Laumape’s skills perfectly, maximising his power running in vulnerable areas on the edge. It is something the All Blacks have picked up too, doing the same thing when he is in the starting line-up.
He has also shown his ability as a genuine 12, running tight lines in the channels outside 10, with his strong carrying achieving gain line (42.2% success rate last year for the Hurricanes) and an ability to find holes. His support play backing up is an underrated strength, which he always seems to profit from.
The international level is a different beast, however, and Laumape’s drop in effectiveness in 2018 was evident. His gain line success dropped from 42.2% at Super Rugby level to 28.8% for the All Blacks, despite playing against the weaker test opposition on the schedule.
In his only 80-minute game at 12 against Tier 1 opposition last year, Kurtley Beale managed him well in the first half before Laumape showed signs of breaking the door down.
He finished with 16 carries for 81-metres with one line break, a good, but not spectacular output from Laumape in a dominant All Blacks win at Eden Park. Kurtley Beale is also not the quality of midfield defender that Laumape would face against top Northern Hemisphere teams at the World Cup, with stronger defenders expected.
Laumape’s own defence has improved since his first All Blacks game but there are still work-ons to be made in areas that become second-nature with experience. He finished the Wallabies test with nine tackles from nine attempts but it’s off-the-ball situations like this where he can improve.
From the midfield scrum play, the All Blacks use a slide defence to cover the numbers. Bernard Foley (10) gets one-on-one with Aaron Smith and decides to take him on.
Laumape’s man is Reece Hodge (13) but once Foley breaks the tackle he switches off momentarily, allowing the Wallabies to maximise this opportunity.
He turns blind to chase with his back turned, oblivious to what his assignment is doing. His man Reece Hodge is able to run an unobstructed support line on the inside.
He could legally use his position to prevent Hodge from catching up with Foley, but he doesn’t think to shield him away in order to disrupt his line and he falls behind.
Hodge is there to receive the inside pass from Foley and go over untouched for a try with Laumape a good three metres behind.
Not to absolve Aaron Smith from missing the original tackle, but this try could have been prevented on this phase, or at least made more difficult, by Laumape using his leverage to stop Hodge getting there in support and taking away Foley’s only option.
Once a break is made there is still work that can be done in defence to shut the play down, but it requires quicker reaction, better use of multi-directional speed and situational awareness.
Shielding or disrupting support runners is something that experienced outside backs do all the time, something that Adam Ashley-Cooper did against the Hurricanes to limit Laumape’s ability to offload to Vince Aso in the opening game against the Waratahs. The Hurricanes pair had zero line breaks and a combined 36 running metres on the night.
Playing water-tight coverage off-the-ball is extra work that elite defenders do, while situational reads is another area where misses can be costly.
Against the Blues at home last year, Laumape is caught facing an overlap on the edge. He decides to rush up and jam while his inside defender Sam Lousi (5), looks to slide to take Stephen Perofeta (10), the identified ball-carrier.
Laumape gets interested in Perofeta even though Lousi is there, and he ends up caught in ‘no man’s land’ between Perofeta and Rieko Ioane (12).
Ioane breezes right past, without a finger being laid on him to score in the corner, while Laumape doesn’t attempt a tackle on either player.
Despite being outnumbered, the decision to rush instead of jockey out, not trust the inside defence, and inability to get any contact on Ioane contributed to an all-around bad defensive play that cannot be afforded at the international level.
Laumape is making fewer mistakes as he improves and is getting better at completing tackles at the highest level, moving from around a 71% completion rate to 88% last year with the All Blacks. However, it will be the little one-percenters that make all the difference at the World Cup.
How he plays situational defence, when he does or doesn’t initiate contact, how often he stays alive to continue to track the ball, and how he plays runners off the ball will all be taken into account when assessing his defensive performance.
Sonny Bill Williams, when healthy, has proven to be Steve Hansen’s preference at second-five eighth. Hansen has a lot of stock in Sonny’s ability to do the job, and the professionalism he brings is a positive influence to the next generation of young All Blacks in the squad.
2018 was a disrupted year for Williams, who never got into a grove as he managed injuries. He was trusted to handle test duties without much Super Rugby under his belt and played in only five tests. His tackle success dipped from an elite 88% the year prior to 75%, but he still offered a reliable defensive presence.
Williams’ attacking game at 33-years-old isn’t going to have the eye-popping, highlight-reel runs that Laumape pulls off, but there are still few defenders in the game that have the ability to manage him one-on-one for the full 80-minutes. He always attracts multiple defenders at some point, possessing a black hole-like gravitational pull that the defence finds irresistible.
The most talked about trend in the 2019 Six Nations has been England’s use of attacking kicks to take apart the opposition. This in part, has been a solution to the near-impenetrable front-line defence systems employed by the world’s best teams.
Williams’ most valuable asset – the offloading ability, is something there is no answer to. It is a weapon that can create a line break even when the defence does nothing wrong. It can be indefensible, especially when deployed by someone regarded as the world’s best and who has turned it into something of an art form. It is something that Laumape offers as well, but you cannot go past the best in the business.
England only had to deal with Williams for thirty minutes in November, a period in which they had nearly all the running, while Ireland did not see him at all. There will be an element of surprise with a fit Williams at the World Cup and the space-creating ability he brings.
Can Manu Tuilagi, Bundee Aki or Hadleigh Parkes handle Williams all alone without outside help? Springboks centre Damian de Allende gave the most convincing account in Pretoria last year and might be the only one that can do so in Japan, that is if he can do it again.
If any opposition does find a way to limit Williams in attack, it’s still his defensive ability that is bedrock to the All Blacks backline.
The 2017 version of Williams offered a defensive enforcer that brought stability in addition to punishing dominant tackles. In the one-point win against South Africa at Newlands where the All Blacks had just 36% possession, Williams ate up Bok runner after Bok runner for an astounding game-high 23 tackles, missing two for a 92% success rate. He consistently shows he can match the physicality of any loose forward, stopping their momentum in one-on-one tackles and fills the midfield with sheer size.
On the end of year tour against France, Scotland, and Wales, he completed 91.4% of his tackles while finding that spark in attack, particularly against Scotland where his involvement in two tries was instrumental in winning at Murrayfield. Also telling, the 2017 Williams carried the ball with a 42.9% gain line success rate with the All Blacks.
The question is whether Williams durability issues will subside this year to allow him to get enough game time to peak at the right time. His early management at the Blues suggests a cautious approach will be taken, which is what is required to make that happen in October.
Having been a part of two World Cup-winning campaigns, Williams brings experience and the mindset of a champion required for tournament success. The grandest stage has never been too much for the greatest dual-code athlete, whether it be NRL Grand Finals, Super Rugby finals, or World Cups, he has done it all.
Despite an injury-list that would end most careers, Williams keeps coming back. It is a testament to the mental strength and resilience of the man that he is on the field at this stage of his career. He didn’t reach his best form in 2018, but he still showed it is within reach.
The end of year tour showed that knockout games against the likes of England, Ireland and Wales are going to be defensive battles of attrition decided by small margins. Outside of Laumape’s attacking showing the third test of the 2017 Lions tour, we don’t have empirical evidence his explosive firepower will decimate top tier Northern Hemisphere opposition.
In those knockout games, if Williams is healthy he should start while Laumape could be used off the bench against selected opposition to bring a 30-minute cameo, if both of them make the squad.
It is going to be a tough selection decision nonetheless, but defence will win this year’s World Cup so the midfielders that put together smart, reliable performances without the ball-in-hand will be the ones that get a plane ticket to Japan.
Comments on RugbyPass
Oh wow… “But as La Rochelle proved in winning in Cape Town this season, a cross-continental away assignment need not spell the end of days.” La Rochelle actually proved quite the opposite. After traveling to Cape town and back they (back-to-back and current champs) got mercilessly thumped the next week. If travel is not the reason, why else would a full-strength powerhouse like La Rochelle get dumped on their @r$e$ one week later?
26 Go to commentsYou know he can land a winning conversion after the full time siren is up. (Even if it takes two attempts.)
5 Go to commentsA very insightful article from Jake. I would love to know how South African’s feel about their move to Europe. Do you prefer playing in Europe or want to go back to Super Rugby?
2 Go to commentspure fire
1 Go to commentsA very well thought out summary of all the relevant complications…agree with your ”refer the Cricket Test versus 20/20 comparison”. More also definitely doesn't necessarily mean better!
2 Go to commentsMust be something when you are only 19 y.o and both NZ and France want you. Btw he wasn’t the only new caledonian in french U20 as Robin Couly also lived in Noumea until 17. Hope he’s successful wherever he chooses to play.
7 Go to comments“Several key players in the Stade Rochelais squad are in their thirties” South Africans are going to hate the implications of that comment!
5 Go to commentsI know Leinster did a job on La Roche but shortly after HT Leinster were 30-13 ahead of them and at a similar time Toulouse were trailing Exeter. At 60 mins Leinster were 27 ahead but after 67 mins Toulouse were only 19 ahead before Exeter collapsed. That’s heavier scoring by Leinster against the Champions. I think people are looking at Toulouses total a little too much. I also think Northhampton are in with a real chance, albeit I’d put Leinster as favourites. If Leinster make the final I expect them to win by more than ten and with control.
5 Go to commentsHey Nick, your match analysis is decent but the top and tail not so much, a bit more random. For a start there’s a seismic difference in regenerating any club side over a test team. EJ pretty much had to urinate with the appendage he’d been given at test level whereas club success is impacted hugely by the budget. Look no further than Boudjellal’s Toulon project for a perfect example. The set ups at La Rochelle and Leinster are like chalk and cheese and you are correct that Leinster are ahead. Leinster are not just slightly ahead though, they are light years ahead on their plans, with the next gen champions cup team already blooded, seasoned and developing at speed from their time manning the fort in the URC while the cream play CC and tests. They have engineered a strong talent conveyor belt into their system, supported by private money funnelled into a couple of Leinster private schools. The really smart move from Leinster and the IRFU however is maximising the Irish Revenue tax breaks (tax relief on the best 10 years earnings refunded at retirement) to help keep all of their stars in Ireland and happy, while simultaneously funding marquee players consistently. And of course Barrett is the latest example. But in no way is he a “replacement for Henshaw”, he’s only there for one season!!! As for Rob Baxter, the best advice you can give him is to start lobbying Parliament and HMRC for a similar state subsidy, but don’t hold your breath… One thing Cullen has been very smart with is his coaching team. Very quickly he realised his need to supplement his skills, there was talk of him exiting after his first couple of years but he was extremely shrewd bringing in Lancaster and now Nienaber. That has worked superbly and added a layer that really has made a tangible difference. Apart from that you were bang on the money… 😉😂
5 Go to commentsNot sure exactly what went wrong for him at Glasgow but it’s pretty clear he ain’t Franco’s cup of tea. Suspect he would have been better served heading out of Scotland around the same time as Finn, Hoggy and Jonny!
1 Go to commentsBulls disrespected the Northampton supporters and the competition. Decide quickly, fully in or out.
26 Go to commentsI wonder if Parling was ever on England’s radar as a coach? Obviously Borthwick is a great lineout coach, but I do worry he might be taking on too much as both head coach and forwards coach.
1 Go to commentsJason Jenkins has one cap. When Etzebeth was his age he had over 80 caps. Experience matters. He will never amount to what Etzebeth has because he hasn’t been developed as an international player.
2 Go to commentsSays much about the player picking this gig over the easier and bigger rewards offered to him in Japan. Also says a lot about the state sanctioned tax benefits the Irish Revenue offers pro rugby players, with their ten highest earning years subject to an additional 40% tax relief and paid as a lump sum, in cash, at retirement. Certainly helps Leinster line up the financial ducks in a row to fund marquee signings like this!!! No other union anywhere in world rugby benefits from this kind of lucrative financial sponsorship from their government…
5 Go to commentsTrue Jordie could earn a lot more in Japan. But by choosing Leinster he’ll be playing with 1 of the best clubs in the world and can win a champions cup and URC…..
6 Go to commentsThanks for that Marshy, noticed you didn't say who is gonna win it. We know who ain't gonna win it - your Crusaders outfit. They've gone from having arguably the best Super Rugby first five ever, to having a clutch of rookies. Hurricanes all the way!
1 Go to commentsGeez you really have to question the NRLs ability to produce players of quality. Its pathetic. Dont the 25mil in Aus produce enough quality womens players. Sad.
1 Go to commentsBulls fan here, and agree 100% with the conclusion (and little else) of this article. SA sides should absolutely f-off from the champs cup until we get fair scheduling, equal support for travel arrangements and home semis. You know, like all the european teams get.
26 Go to commentsI’m yet to see why Grace would be an ABs contender. He’s pedestrian and lacks the dominance required of a top flight 8.
11 Go to commentsGee my Highlanders were terrible. They have gone backwards since the start of the season. The trouble began when we left Millar behind to prep as the 10 against the Brumbies and he was disconnected from the team that came back from Aussie. We rested Patchell for that game and we blew an avalanche of ball in good attacking positions in the 1st half. Against the Rebels we seem to of gone into a pod system with forwards hanging off from the breakdown leaving Fakatava to secure our ball!
80 Go to comments