The 2017 Six Nations Will Have an Effect on the 2019 World Cup
This year’s Six Nations is shaping up to be the most competitive for many years – and its results will have a direct impact on the next Rugby World Cup, writes James Harrington.
There’s some extra spice to this year’s Six Nations – and it’s little to do with northern hemisphere rugby bragging rights, or the fact that this really could be the most competitive tournament for years … perhaps even, finally, living up to its self-promotional billing of ‘rugby’s greatest championship’.
What happens in the 15 matches over the next seven weeks in six European capitals will have direct and verifiable effects on events in a single room in Kyoto, Japan, on May 10.
That’s when the draw for the pool phase of the 2019 World Cup takes place.
It matters. Just ask England, Wales and Australia, who, thanks to the ranking system, were grouped together – disastrously for England – in the pool stage of the 2015 tournament.
The end-of-days make-up of that pool alone led to criticism of the timing of the draw, which was made in December 2012, a full two years and nine months before the tournament kicked off at Twickenham in September 2015.
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This time, the draw is closer to the actual event, slicing a whole six months off the lag between draw and competition. But it is still a long way out, which World Rugby says is to allow time for logistics and ticketing.
As it stands, three of the four Rugby Championship sides plus Fiji could meet in the pool phase of Japan 2019. But it is very possible that the tournament could feature not one but two of those dreaded and cliched pools of death.
All the rugby talk at the end of 2016 – England and Ireland’s big year – was about how the gap between north and south, apparently a yawning chasm during the World Cup when the two semi finals featured the big four southern hemisphere nations, had closed.
Ireland claimed New Zealand’s scalp in Chicago in November, to add to victories over South Africa and Australia, while England’s 13-match winning run gained them more than 10 points in 12 months to leap six places and take an elephant bite out of the All Blacks‘ lead in World Rugby’s rankings.
Thanks to their top-three pool finishes in the 2015 World Cup, all the Six Nations and Rugby Championship sides, as well as Japan and Georgia, are in the draw. Fiji, currently 10th in the standings, have yet to qualify.
The 12 sides will be split into three groups of four based on World Rugby’s rankings on May 10. Using current standings, the 12 confirmed teams break down as follows:
- Band 1: New Zealand, England, Australia, Ireland
- Band 2: Wales, South Africa, Scotland, France
- Band 3: Argentina, Japan, Georgia, Italy
The eight remaining nations heading to Japan 2019 have yet to be decided from qualifying competitions across the world. They will make up bands 4 and 5 in Kyoto.
England would need a disastrous, lose-to-all-comers-by-a-lot Six Nations to fall out of the top band. Wales could displace Ireland, though realistically that is an outside bet. Its reasonably safe to say that Band 1 is all-but finalised.
Band 1 sides will be separated in the pool phase of the competition.
Bands 2 and 3, however, are more fluid. The difference between fifth-placed Wales and ninth-placed, band 3-listed Argentina is just 2.64 ranking points. It’s less than a point between seventh and ninth.
Wales and South Africa should be safe, leaving three teams – Scotland, France and Argentina – in the running for the last two places in the second rank of the World Cup draw.
The Pumas fate is out of their hands, but it is possible that they could move up the rankings, if Scotland or France have a bad Six Nations.
This matters. If, say, France drop down to band 3 as a result of a bad run in the next seven weeks, their 2019 World Cup could see them drawn in a pool with New Zealand and Argentina; England and South Africa; or Australia and Wales; with the possibility that their pool could also feature a pure rugby nation such as Fiji, currently ranked 10th in the world but yet to qualify, remember.
And don’t forget, the draw takes place more than two years ahead of the World Cup. There is plenty of time for nations to change their stars. Look at what Eddie Jones has done for England in the 15 months since the last tournament, or what Michael Cheika did for Australia in the run-up to the 2015 competition (never mind what has happened since).
There is plenty of time between now and September 20, 2019, when the World Cup in Japan kicks off at the Tokyo Stadium, for the world rugby landscape to change.
Comments on RugbyPass
South Africa rarely play Ireland and France on these tours. Mostly, England, Scotland and Wales. I wonder why
1 Go to commentsIt was a let’s-see-what-you're-made-of type of a game. The Bulls do look good when the opposition allows them to, but Munster shut them down, and they could not find a way through. Jake should be very worried about their chances in the competition.
2 Go to commentsHats off to Fabian for a very impressive journey to date. Is it as ‘uniquely unlikely’ as Rugby Pass suggests, given Anton Segner’s journey at the Blues?
1 Go to commentsSad that this was not confirmed. When administrators talk about expanding the game they evidently don’t include pathways to the top tier of rugby for teams outside of the old boys club. Rugby deserves better, and certainly Georgia does.
1 Go to commentsLions might take him on if they move on Van Rooyen but I doubt he will want to go back, might consider it a step backwards for himself. Sharks would take him on but if Plumtree goes on to win the challenge cup they will keep him on. Also sharks showing some promising signs recently. Stormers and Bulls are stable and Springboks are already filled up. Quality coach though, interesting to see where he ends up
1 Go to commentsAnd the person responsible for creating a culture of accountability is?
3 Go to commentsMore useless words from Ben Smith -Please get another team to write about. SA really dont need your input, it suck anyway.
264 Go to commentsThis disgraceful episode must result in management and coach team sackings. A new manager with worse results than previous and the coaching staff need to coached. Awful massacre led by donkeys.
1 Go to commentsInteresting article with one glaring mistake. This sentence: “And between the top four nations right now, Ireland, France, South Africa, and New Zealand…” should read: And between the top four nations right now, South Africa, Ireland, New Zealand and France…”. Get it right wistful thinkers, its not that hard.
23 Go to commentsHow did Penny get the gig anyway?
3 Go to commentsNice write up Nick and I would have agreed a week ago. However as you would know Cale & co got absolutely monstered by the Blues back row of Sotutu, Ioane and Papaliti and not all of these 3 are guaranteed a start in the Black jumper. He may need to put some kgs before stepping up, Spring tour? After the week end Joe will be a bit more restless. Will need to pick a mobile tough pack for Wales and hope England does the right thing and bashes the ABs. I like your last paragraph but I would bring Swinton, Hannigan into the 6 role and Bobby V to 8
23 Go to commentsThe Crusaders can still get in to the Play Off’s. The imminent return of outstanding captain Scott Barrett and his All Black team mate Codie Taylor will be a big boost.There are others like Tamaiti Williams too. Two home games coming up. Fellow Crusader fans get there and support these guys. I will be.
1 Go to commentsCant get more Wellington than Proctor.
2 Go to commentsWhy not let the media decide. Like how they choose the head coach. Like most of us we entrust the rugby system to choose. A rugby team includes the coaches. It's collective.
13 Go to commentsHi NIck, I have been very impressed with him and he seems a smart player who can see opportunities which Bobby V _(who must be an international 6_) doesn’t see or have the speed to take advantage of. If he continues to improve and puts on 5kgs then he could be a great 8. He is a bit taller than Keiran Reid at 1.93m and 111 kgs, so his skill set fits his body size and who knows where it will lead. I hope the spate of Achilles tendon issues have been dealt with by the S&C people. It’s been a very long time since Mark Loane and Kefu stood out at 8. The question is will we be able to hold onto him, if he does make it he will be pretty hot property. I disagree with the idea of letting them go to the Northern Hemisphere and then bring them back.
23 Go to commentsBilly Fulton 🤣🤣🤣🤣 garrrmon not even close
13 Go to commentsDoes the AI take into account refs? hahaha Seriously why not have two on field refs to avoid bias?
23 Go to commentsVern challenging this Blues side might be the edge they need to fulfill their potential. Convincing results from strong D and strong carries are hard to argue against.
1 Go to commentsLove seems to add a strong back field defense with speed to close the gap and tackle to his ability to attack, kick and pass (an accurate long pass). This sets him an edge over some of the other names - JRK in particular. Has to be said that Jordan and Stevenson have also been exposed defensively while Love has yet to face test match intensity. Spoilt for choice.
1 Go to commentsHe’s strung together a few strong seasons, I’d like to see him in the ABs and build some depth along with Reiko and ALB. Levi Aumua hasn’t taken the step we hoped to see but time yet.
2 Go to comments