SRP 2026: Who will be the champions, wooden spooners and off-season winner?

The RugbyPass Round Table writers answer all the big questions ahead of the 2026 Super Rugby Pacific season. Finn Morton (FM), Ben Smith (BS), Henry Lee (HL) and Ned Lester (NL) weigh in with some predictions before the season gets underway this weekend.

Who will win the 2026 competition?

Finn Morton (FM): NFL franchise, the Buffalo Bills, lost four consecutive Super Bowls from 1990 to 1993. It’s an unwanted feat that is still talked about by fans to this day, as the Bills continue to search for their first Lombardi, let alone another trip to the biggest dance in the sport.

Damian McKenzie, Luke Jacobson and the Chiefs have been to the last three Grand Finals in Super Rugby Pacific, but the quest to end the team’s title drought that stretches back to 2013 continues to this day.

Kyren Taumoefolau is among the marquee recruits at the Chiefs this season, with the stacked squad certainly boasting the talent needed to challenge for silverware. ‘D Mac’ will star as the Chiefs make another title decider, leaving them 80 minutes away from history either way.

If the Chiefs make the Grand Final yet again, a defeat will see them join the Bills as the current four-time runners-up. But if you’re a Chiefs fan, there is reason to be hopeful, dare to dream even, because this side should be looked at as the championship favourites.

The Chiefs will snap their Grand Final losing streak when they beat the Hurricanes, Crusaders or Queensland Reds in the decider. Hamilton and the Waikato region will rightfully celebrate the night away, leaving Bills fans to wonder when it’ll be their turn to do the very same.

Henry Lee (HL): Hurricanes head coach Clark Laidlaw would be disappointed with what played out in 2025, but this year, they have the squad, the coaching staff, and the experience to have a deep playoff run.

With Jordie Barrett back from his short-term sabbatical in Ireland, Ruben Love being as motivated as ever, and a forward pack that has bags of talent and experience, if they can fire on all cylinders, they will be hard to beat.

Kini Naholo will be back from injury, they have signed Japan captain Warner Dearns, and the addition of Jason Holland to the coaching staff will also be a positive. Jamie Mackintosh and Bryn Evans’ effect on the forward pack should also elevate their grunt up front, while the likes of Tevita Mafileo, Pasilio Tosi, and Du’Plessis Kirifi have all gained valuable experience with the All Blacks.

Ned Lester (NL): There’s a famous phrase relating to the definition of insanity that comes to mind as soon as you consider anyone other than the Crusaders as title favourites.

Year in, year out, a voice within all Super Rugby Pacific fans not residing on the South Island’s upper half has the optimism to crown a new title favourite, and with just one exception over the past near-decade, that optimism has met an abrupt end.

The 2025 Crusaders won the title, and the 2026 Crusaders are a better team.

The negative notes are that Tom Christie, Levi Aumua, James O’Connor, and Quinten Strange have wandered through the international terminal to greener pastures, and Scott Barrett is kicking back for the next two months or so before returning in the latter rounds of the season.

The positives, though, come in the form of one of World Rugby’s most dominant ball-carriers, Leicester Fainga’anuku, and another year of development for what is a relatively young group.

The Crusaders have just six players over the age of 30 in their 38-man squad, meaning another season under the belt is another step closer to the bulk of the group’s prime playing years. This is especially true for players like Noah Hotham and Rivez Reihana in the halves, Cullen Grace and Christian Lio-Willie in the loose trio, Jamie Hannah in the second row, Chay Fihaki and Macca Springer in the outside backs, and even Fletcher Newell, George Bell, and Tamaiti Williams up front. That’s a core group from the 2025 title run with an average age of 24.

Who will get the wooden spoon in 2026?

FM: Moana Pasifika were everyone’s ‘second team’ last season. That’s a sports phrase this writer has otherwise sworn against typing, but let’s agree to let it slide this time – everyone wanted to see Ardie Savea’s side succeed, and their results were inspiring.

With six wins from 14 matches, Moana finished the 2025 regular season with the same record as the then-defending Super Rugby champions, the Blues. But the Blues secured their place in the post-season, having racked up more bonus points throughout the round-robin.

Moana finished seventh on the ladder, but repeating those heroics this time around seems fairly unlikely. Savea is on sabbatical with New Zealand Rugby, currently plying this trade with Kobelco Kobe Steelers in Japan Rugby League One.

Kyren Taumoefolau, Pone Fa’amausili and Danny Toala are among more than 15 players who have left the club after last season. But it’s far from all doom and gloom, with former All Blacks Ngani Laumape and Augustine Pulu signing on.

Moana start their season away to the Fijian Drua in Lautoka, which is always tough for visiting teams, before facing the Hurricanes, Western Force, Chiefs, Blues and then Crusaders. While they still have a quality side, Moana seem the most likely to collect the wooden spoon.

HL: Unfortunately, losing Ardie Savea will be too big a loss for Moana Pasifika to handle. The sheer quality and leadership that Tana Umaga’s side loses without Savea in the side will instantly set them back in the race for the playoffs and likely restrict them to the bottom three places on the table.

The additions of Ngani Laumape, Jimmy Tupou and Augustine Pulu will help their case, but they’re without a doubt one of the leading candidates for the spoon in 2026. There’s no doubt they have exciting players, new captain Miracle Faiilagi is one of the best loose-forwards going around, Semisi Tupou Ta’eiloa is a ball-carrying machine, and Lalomilo Lalomilo keeps getting better and better, but the odds are against them.

If the Savea-sized hole can be replaced, they have the talent to fight for a playoff spot, but as it currently stands, it could be a long season at North Harbour Stadium.

NL: The Fijian Drua have added some good talent in 2026, but they’ve lost a huge chunk of the leadership group that has been there for the past few years.

Tevita Ikanivere is in Japan, Meli Derenalagi is injured, and Caleb Muntz has flown to France. Iofeso Masi and Salestino Ravutamada have also been lured north by the bright lights of the Top 14.

This team’s no stranger to player turnover, but losing leaders hurts. The club narrowly escaped the wooden spoon last season, and 2026 looks to pose an even bigger challenge with most teams improving. You can’t help but want to be proved wrong when making a wooden spoon prediction, but the Drua have as tall a mountain to climb as any in 2026.

Who is the off-season winner?

FM: Flying Fijians Tevita Ikanivere and Caleb Muntz are among those who left the Fijian Drua ahead of the 2026 Super Rugby Pacific season. Those are some tough shoes to fill for those still with the squad, but it’s not like the Drua are lacking quality.

There’s a case to be made that the Drua are a better side this season. Former Wallabies scrum-half Issak Fines-Leilawasa has signed on, then there’s Virimi Vakatawa and Joji Nasova who could form the most exciting centre pairing in the competition.

Manasa Mataele adds invaluable experience to the lineup as an option on the wings, and Angelo Smith is one to watch in the tight five. This team boasts genuine quality, so there’s a very real case to be heard that maybe, the Drua have ‘won’ the off-season.

In New Zealand, the Hurricanes have been especially busy in the off-season, with Japan captain Warner Dearns one of their new recruits. Jordie Barrett is also back in the mix after a sabbatical with Irish juggernaut Leinster, and Jason Holland returns as an assistant coach.

But the team that stands out with the best off-season recruitment is the Queensland Reds. Former All Black turned Wallaby Aidan Ross, code-hopper Carter Gordon and Flying Fijian Ben Volavola headline a strong group of new recruits.

Treyvon Pritchard, who was crowned the Global Youth Sevens MVP in 2025, has joined the Reds’ top squad for the first time. Alex Hodgman, Ryan Smith and Liam Wright have all left the club, but the Reds have done well to improve their squad so significantly.

HL: It’s either the Highlanders or the Hurricanes, but the latter’s overall environment around the franchise is what entices the most. On the field, the Hurricanes have added Japan captain, Warner Dearns, Jordie Barrett back from Leinster, Josh Moorby, and a bunch of All Blacks have also returned from experience under Scott Robertson in 2025.

Off the field, the coaching staff have also improved. Jamie Mackintosh and Cory Jane are coming off an All Blacks XV campaign alongside Jamie Joseph, and Bryn Evans helped improve the All Blacks lineout in 2026, and that’s all without even mentioning adding Jason Holland back into the mix of frontline coaches.

The growth and feeling around the franchise is really what has excelled in the past year, and they have all of the tools to make a jump in 2026.

NL: The Highlanders have been orchestrating one of the most thrilling roster rebuilds in recent memory since Jamie Joseph returned to the club, and the 2026 off-season was again brilliant.

The club’s most dire need was grunt in the tight five. Cue Brumbies prop Sefo Kautai, ex-All Black Angus Ta’avao and Pumas enforcer Tomás Lavanini.

Adding to an already electric and high-potential backline, the club landed All Blacks Sevens products Xavier Tito-Harris and Andrew Newstubb, U20 dynamo Stanley Solomon, and ex-Australia schoolboys star Reesjan Pasitoa.

The club was late to the party in establishing an academy program, but it’s been a productive investment since its opening its doors in 2020, and Dylan Pledger was set to be the next big thing before an ACL injury postponed his rookie season. Lucas Casey is another rookie sure to further the hype he generated during Otago’s NPC season.

But the best bit of business the club conducted over the break was landing Josh Jacomb for the 2027 season and beyond. He’s not yet on the team sheet, but landing the All Blacks XV star is a major coup for the club, and betters Super Rugby as a whole by getting the best talent in positions to play.