When I penned this preview at the outset of the Six Nations, it finished with the words “get ready for a surprise. Expect the unexpected”. Truly, I did not realise just how deep the rabbit-hole would go. The tournament has provided one reverberating shock after another, like a seismic chain reaction along rugby’s equivalent of the San Andreas Fault.
Ireland reversed the dire warnings of terminal decline by shattering England by 40 points at Twickenham, in the process returning to their accustomed role as title challengers on the final weekend of competition. England overwhelmed Wales only to lose their next three matches and post a historic loss to the Azzurri in Rome in round four. From sitting pretty in his armchair as a ‘made’ man with 12 wins on the bounce, a contract is suddenly out on Steve Borthwick’s head.
France appeared to be on an irresistible march, en colonne d’attaque towards a Grand Slam, scoring 18 tries and 123 points in the first three rounds of play, only to come a cropper last weekend at Murrayfield, shipping 50 points into the bargain. The only constant in the tournament has been second-rate, unremarkable Wales, for heaven’s sake.
This time around there is a very real danger the western edge of California will fall into the Pacific Ocean. And for the first time in recent memory, Scotland have a realistic chance to find themselves the beneficiaries of a wholly unstable rugby system in the north, the proud owners of an all-new coastline of prime real estate in the Six Nations.
Les Bleus looked in rare bloom before the match at Murrayfield, having regenerated successfully from a disastrous November loss to the Springboks. They were even touted in some quarters as the best team in the world on the basis of their three crushing victories over Ireland, Wales and Italy.
All those rumours were quashed on a memorable afternoon in Murrayfield, as the Scots scored seven tries and 50 points to put the tournament favourites to the sword, or rather the claymore. It was beautiful butchery, and it could have been a whole lot worse. There was an extra edge to the Edinburgh encounter. Even before the game, there were complaints about the size of the ‘away’ changing sheds from Fabien Galthie.
“Scotland play in one of the Six Nations’ exceptional stadiums, Murrayfield. The changing room is the smallest in the world. You have to get changes in the corridors – one has to say things as they are.
“That sets the mood. We’ve often asked if they could give us the room next door, [but] we haven’t had it. So, we keep getting changed in the corridors, for an international match. The referees’ changing room is bigger.”
After the game, the shadow cast by Les Bleus had lengthened, with allegations of an eye-gouge by flanker Oscar Jégou during the match, and a sulk by the best player in the world, with Antoine Dupont allegedly refusing to shake the hand of his opposite number Ben White after it.
Oscar Jegou dans la tourmente après ce ralenti qui montre une suspicion de fourchette sur le talonneur écossais Ewan Ashman.
Réponse dans les prochaines heures/prochains jours sur une éventuelle convocation devant une commission de discipline. pic.twitter.com/nTF1TseTyw
— Gauthier Baudin (@GauthierBaudin) March 7, 2026
For Galthié’s France, the problem remains the same as it was in the 2025 Six Nations. Les Bleus are not finding ways to win crunch matches away from home. Last year it was Twickenham, this year it is Murrayfield. Last July, they passed up a golden opportunity to beat the All Blacks on their patch in a three-Test series.
Yes, the political balance between the LNR and FRR had to be respected in the process of squad selection for that tour, but it not doing the national side any favours, and it will be the same again at the Nations Championship this summer. On July 4 and July 11 France will be facing the All Blacks and the Wallabies on two consecutive weekends without their top players, most of whom are likely to be involved in the Top 14 final on 27 June. You only learn to be the best by beating the best consistently – especially in their own back yard.
The assessments by both parties in the aftermath of events in the Scottish capital were fair. As Australia-born centre and skipper Sione Tuipulotu observed: “We were ourselves out there. We were aggressive with our play-calling, [when] we had penalties, we didn’t take threes, we went to the corner and we pressed the issue with a good French team. I felt like we lived and died by our identity today.”
Galthié added: “it is normal for the Scots to win this match. They played a great match. They took us [out] in the basics of rugby.”
The basics of rugby in the modern era are the skills applied in contact situations, and there can be as many as 250 of these occurring in a top-level game, roughly three every minute. Franco Smith’s league-leading Glasgow Warriors, who provide the spine of the national team, build the most rucks in the URC with 110 per game, and Townsend’s Scotland set an average of 121 at the 2025 Six Nations. That was a massive 22 more rucks per game than the next team.
Scotland averaged five rucks lost per game in the same competition last season, but on a sunny Saturday afternoon at Murrayfield they only lost one in 128. There is huge difference between losing one ruck in every 24 attempts set, and losing one in 128 against a very good jackaling and counter-ruck defence like that run by Shaun Edwards. That is what it means to take out your opponent in the rugby basics, and to live and die by your own identity, wearing the thistle and the dark navy blue.
Scotland’s performance was a welcome breath of fresh air, and a pleasurable push in the back for possession footy in a tournament which initially looked likely to be dominated by the boot and the battle of the airwaves. There were only 42 kicks launched into orbit, and that meant it was Scotland who were effectively establishing the ground-rules of play.
The ball-in-play time at Murrayfield was exactly the same as in France’s opening round game against Ireland at 39 minutes; but whereas at the Stade de France there were 80 kicks compared to 190 rucks built, in Edinburgh that ratio had changed to 42 kicks to 203 rucks. There is a big difference in aerobic demands between a 39-minute game where the ruck-to-kick ratio is 5:1 rather than 2.5:1, and Scotland waxed as France waned off the back of that change.
Scotland prevailed in all the KPIs of contact:
- 128 rucks set to France’s 75, with one pilfer apiece
- Scotland forced their opponents to make an extra 80 tackles
- 84% of Scottish metres gained came after first contact with a defender, compared to 57% by France
- Scotland won the penalty count at the tackle area by six pens to two
- Scotland made twice the number of offloads compared to France [12 against 6]
If you are a possession-based team, those are all stats to gladden the heart.
Townsend’s men made at least half a dozen saves at the kind of counter-ruck scenarios where France have made so much profit in this Six Nations.
— William Bishop (@RPvids1994) March 8, 2026
Right wing Darcy Graham takes a negative tackle and Les Bleus are primed to turn over the ball and play back with a lethal counter, but it is the arrival of three Scottish backs – 15 Blair Kinghorn, 13 Huw Jones and 10 Finn Russell – which stabilises the situation. When your primary playmaker is willing to make that kind of commitment in contact, you know you are on to a winner.
The other big item on Townsend’s attacking menu in contact was the use of the offload when the ball-carrier was potentially exposed to turnover.
— William Bishop (@RPvids1994) March 8, 2026
— William Bishop (@RPvids1994) March 8, 2026
— William Bishop (@RPvids1994) March 8, 2026
There are a total of five significant offloads – between Jack Dempsey and Pierre Schoeman at 4:19, between Russell and Graham at 4:37 in the first clip; between Kyle Steyn and Matt Fagerson at 57:02, and Fagerson and Ben White a couple of seconds later in the second; and between Kinghorn and Graham at 58:29 in the third – which fan the attacking flames at moments when they could be doused.
It was the expert control and management of the contact zone which enabled quick ruck ball and the ability to push the ball wide-wide in the first three phases from set-piece, and go wide-wide-wide within five.
— William Bishop (@RPvids1994) March 8, 2026
Scotland’s word-perfect sermon in the contact area was probably the most complete performance by any possession-based international team since vintage Ireland 2022-23, with Johnny Sexton banging the bible from his pulpit.
Scotland controlled the French jackaling and counter-ruck threat, chose when to set the ruck or offload, and laid a sun-soaked platform from which Russell could display his attacking wares. It has deservedly set them up for a potential championship decider.
Les Bleus still remain favourites to win the title while falling again at the hurdle which has proven so problematic over the last couple of seasons. When can we expect Galthié’s France to overcome the top teams on their own turf, and knock them off one after another without fear or favour? We are no closer to knowing the answer to that question now than we were at the beginning of 2025.
It can join a host of conundrums thrown up by the most surprising, shock-filled Six Nations of recent years. Where will England’s sudden death spiral end? Can Scotland win their first championship for 27 years? Can Italy win more games than they lose and finish in the top half of the table? When will Wales ever win another match? In the last round, as in all of the others, expect the unexpected.
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Incredible from Scotland and their pressure made France look average. Dupont looked like he was on his first test cap at times which is a huge compliment to them.
But…they still don't have the balance for me. 50 PTS on this French team will always get the headlines but they still shipped 40 PTS. And 26 PTS down the home stretch which was very soft
I do think that will be getting Townsends full attention in the prep for Saturday
A poor first halve against Italy and Wales, brilliant there after. 6 brilliant halves of rugby from 8 so far. I fully expect them to turn up in Dublin
Ben White certainly won his individual battle with Dupont hands-down - maybe he benefit of his experience at Toulon?
Far more weight should be given to the 50 points scored surely? When was the last time a Shaun Edwards D gave up that many points in a game?
The game was won at 40-14 and 47-21 so the 40 doesn’t matter so much!
Seeing how much joy the victory gave ITA was brilliant - the fans, the players, the coaches. It’s been a long time coming but was thoroughly deserved. 👏👏👏
I have to say, I thought that was the best EVER game I have seen SCO play. They were absolutely brilliant and FRA didn’t an answer to it. 👏👏👏
Yes it must be the best game by Scot under GT.
Lovely stuff, thanks Nick. What a joyful game it can be, played with that sort of verve in front of a full crowd in the sunlight.
Three weeks is a long time in the life of a top tier rugby coach - compare Gregor’s trajectory to that of Borthwick.
Exactly DM, 90 points in the sun, who could ask for more?
Sb is under undrepressure now, but so was Townsend after Italy and Farrell after France. Fickle fans🤣😉
Great read. Unfortunately the second line pairing you suggested to play the Springboks next in Ollivon Guillard were not up to it, along with many others. Scotland delivered a Springboks in Wellington 2025 level of performance, it was incredible from them.
Such an exciting final day upcoming!
I don’t know were you get the idea that Guillard-Ollivon is the place to ring the changes SB. 🤣
Your favourite Jelonch missed a big tackle on Steyn for one try, while Jegou allowed his ill-discipline to show with the gouge on Ashman; and the front row came off obviously second best in the scrum.
So for England you would start with the front row and the back row, not the middle row!
A masterclass by Scotland and prompted Galthie to comment re contact area: “It was very well done..” several times in post match interview.
I also think Scotland learned a little from Ireland smashing England to clear their own rucks.
My worry for Scotland is a drop in the physical, emotional, mental intensity and clarity needed to carry that forward against an Irish team who won’t let them play, managed by a man who knows the system Scotland play well and who knows their best players very well from Lions/Australia. Many looked to the positives about Scotland “backing” up their performance against against England when playing Wales. They planned to but the truth is they didn’t. They were 5-20 down and should have lost. Ireland showed a big step up between the Italy and England match. It will happen again versus Scotland. Townsend has already mentioned Ireland’s extra days recovery and the fact that there would be fatigue in the final match—-hoping it would open up.
I think the rise of Italy and apparent improvement in Wales will mean the “big squad” factor will be more important in 2026. I think it will be apparent in Dublin though.
Borthwick needs to turn Paris into a high pressure knock out match. The entire championship is at stake for France and that must be brought to bear. For this match: Borthwick Ball, Borthwick Ball, Borthwick Ball, Borthwick Ball and then some more Borthwick Ball. I agree England need to adapt, but Borthwick Ball can win a tight semi final. England need to be true to their (recent, 12 wins on trot) identity to win in Paris.
The good thing is they have Glasgow doing it at the level below, and currently on another curve of improvement under Franco Smith EE.
Ireland-Scotland now a very interesting encounter. Ire good v England, but very moderate against a plucky but limited Wales team. So that points to a very close result, and poss an upset by Scotland.
Borthwick ball still needs to adapt to be successful v France. The high kicking game worked v Italy but the attack did not function at all behind it. And no way can Eng afford to kick the ball away 38 times to that France backfield!
Once again well written. Wales is starting to show that old fighting spirit again. They shouldn't try and win currently. They need to return to basics. No matter how boring people would find it. Sort out the defence to stop the big scores. Once the defence is tight, they can start to go for the kill. They need the right coach and the right players. Even though Franco Smith doesn't have much international experience, I can't help but wonder what he could do with the Welsch.
You could have the best players in your team and still lose a lot of games. Look at the Sharks in the URC. Packed to the brim with Boks that on the international stage destroys all comers, yet they look very average in club colours. Coaches does make a huge difference, though people see coaches as pions to be sacrificed at will. A coach can only coach a team, but on the day, if that players play like sh.t, it's always the coach fault.
This is the best 6N ever I think, from when I started to watch at least. All 6 teams look brilliant and very bad at the same time, and come the NC, if they play like this against the SH teams, they will get destroyed. England's 12 run victories got padded by the opposition they faced, making them look World Class. Seen as the best team. Then the French destroyed the Irish and won 2 easy games after that and suddenly they are the best in the world again. Then the Scots destroyed the French and so it goes on. Quite a 6N this year. Also too many undisciplined players.
The NH have a lot of things to work on before the NC or no NH team will win any games. Not one team so far is consistent. They have brilliant moments, then have as many brain farts. It's like 2026 is a year that shows up all the weaknesses in these teams, but also a lot of brilliant players that has gone unnoticed so far.
Wales D is getting a lot better, and a lot more aggressive HH. Tandy is a defence coach, so that shd be a given.
You cannot underestimate the impact of Lions fatigue in the next 6N. It made France look like world-beaters up until this weekend and Galthie knows they are ‘work in progress’.
All the teams have hit some highs and plumbed many a low, and that’s what you get with teams full of Lions who are sick to the back teeth of the sight of an oval ball.
Witness Maro Itoje for a variety of reasons - normally v consistent but lately as much up and down as everyone else!
So I would not read too much into this tournament from a RWC viewpoint.
Amazing game up in “The Athens pf the North” . Great result for the morale of one of rugby’s smallest nations in the top tier. And France were arguably lucky to get 40 points. The try that started their resurgence at the end certainly had one clear forward pass in the lead up, and possibly another. And the Dupont strip could have been ruled as a knock on in the lead up to that earlier score.
If Jegou had received his marching orders it could have ended something like 60-30 Miz! And yes, it looked like AD stripped the ball forward in the lead-up to that France try… So Scotland may count themselves unlucky for only posting 50 points!
Nick Bishop, I loved this article but we are all waiting for the mouthwatering England review from you. Once it drops it may just make my entire week.
Already written, awaiting publication!
What this match has shown us is that the Scots are brilliant at keeping the ball and building rucks. They have their own identity which they live and die by, a rock and roll non-stop all action kind of rugby that tugs at the heartstrings especially when they are blowing the roof off Murrayfield with their feverish fans behind them. Thats why we watch Rugby. This match has shown us though that the problems for Scotland and France remain the same. France need to sort out their defence with Graham dancing through tackles and Russell pulling the strings they had no answer to Scotlands running game. They also cannot claim big scalps away from home thanks to their patched up touring squads of recent years. When their forward game doesnt get going and when their kick chase doesnt quite work and the turnovers dry up then they cant make anything happen. France need to find more ways to win. Scotland meanwhile faded and conceded 26 points in 15 minutes. Yes they fell asleep at the wheel but it has happened now on multiple occassions over their last 10 games and was a huge problem during the Autumn. This game was wonderful to watch but I wonder if both these sides are really making progress or if the cracks are just being papered over in a 6N with no clearly dominant team.
People forget Scotland had 13 players in the last 10 minutes. No wonder holes appeared in defence.
I don’t think France can handle multi-phase attack when their BD threat is neutralized SK.
Top 14 is stop-start and this was a very quick, aerobically challenging match, where BIP did not depend on kicks going back and forth over the forwards’ heads. they were in action instead, running and defending and repeating.
The bench theory is interesting, because Glasgow have the best points differential in the 4th quarter in the entire URC. The France bench was about the only part of theri game which functioned.
Fair summation apart from wales who have made massive improvements.
I think ‘steady’ would be more sensible than ‘massive’ tho BW, wouldn’t you?