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Should Ireland Be Favourites To Win The Six Nations?

By Lee Calvert
Robbie Henshaw (Getty Images)

Joe Schmidt’s Ireland squad should have everyone very worried – especially England, writes Lee Calvert.

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If a statistician was to do some form of analysis on Ireland’s 2016 the line of best fit for their form would start to trend upwards somewhere around the final game of Six Nations, when they cut loose vs Scotland, continue this trajectory through their close-fought June series in South Africa, then smash through the roof with that defeat of the All Blacks in Chicago in November.

Their 2017 could be even better. As they head into the Six Nations, the squad that beat New Zealand has been bolstered with some serious new talent.

For so long, Ireland’s fortunes were dependent – far too dependent some would say – on the form and presence of Jonny Sexton, whose only backups were the mansize fuzzy felt Ian Madigan, the horrific Ian Keatley or the toddler-faced unformed talent of Paddy Jackson. What 2016 clearly showed is that Jackson has now realised his potential: Ireland appear something close to the same team when he is the pivot as when Sexton is there. This is a heartening development as the Leinster ten once again has an injury niggle to sweat over.

Since Ireland’s historic victory over the All Blacks in Chicago the form of three of their provinces has been good-to-outstanding. The only spanner in the works being Ulster, who are playing like they’ve had their brains wiped by a freak radiation accident.

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Munster, who have bounced back incredibly from the shocking death of legend Anthony Foley, qualified for the European Champions Cup quarterfinals along with Leinster, while Connacht missed out by the narrowest of margins. Much of this achievement has been due to the form of the experienced Ireland internationals in their ranks.

Robbie Henshaw is playing brilliantly since his move to Leinster; CJ Stander is so good every week that they might as well give him the man of the match award while he’s taking his pre-match dump; Iain Henderson is single-handedly holding the Ulster pack together. Conor Murray and Sexton continue to be top drawer as do Peter O’Mahoney, Tadhg Furlong and any other you care to name. Even Rob Kearney looks back to decent form, something that early last year looked about as likely to happen as Donald Trump changing his hairstyle.

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Added to this has been the form and burgeoning class of the new generation.  Ireland have been in a transitional period for so long that it was easy to imagine that they would never come out of it; that not finding players to replace the like of Brian O’Driscoll would be a permanent state of being. But on recent showing it appears the light at the end of the long transition tunnel is growing brighter. Garry Ringrose is oozing top-level class in the centre for Leinster alongside Henshaw and this is perfectly-timed given the injury to Schmidt midfield favourite Jared Payne. Young loose forward Jack Conan is a special talent, Ultan Dillane continues to look the real deal and young Munster wing Andrew Conway is a huge part of the province’s turnaround.

This all-round form, alloyed with having one of the best coaches in the business and home fixtures against both France and England means that despite England being odds-on, Ireland should really be the favourites to win the tournament.  It will likely all come down to the last weekend when England roll up to Lansdowne Road. It promises to be some match.

IRELAND SQUAD

Forwards: Finlay Bealham (Connacht), Rory Best (Ulster), Jack Conan (Connacht), Ultan Dillane (Connacht), Tadhg Furlong (Leinster), Cian Healy (Leinster), Jamie Heaslip (Leinster), Iain Henderson (Ulster), Billy Holland (Munster), Dave Kilcoyne (Munster), Dan Leavy (Leinster), Jack McGrath (Leinster), Sean O’Brien (Leinster), Tommy O’Donnell (Munster), Peter O’Mahony (Munster), Donnacha Ryan (Munster), John Ryan (Munster), Niall Scannell (Munster), CJ Stander (Munster), Devin Toner (Leinster), James Tracy (Leinster), Josh van der Flier (Leinster).

Backs: Tommy Bowe (Ulster), Andrew Conway (Munster), Keith Earls (Munster), Craig Gilroy (Ulster), Robbie Henshaw (Leinster), Paddy Jackson (Ulster), Rob Kearney (Leinster), Kieran Marmion (Connacht), Luke Marshall (Ulster), Stuart McCloskey (Ulster), Luke McGrath (Leinster), Conor Murray (Munster), Tiernan O’Halloran (Connacht), Garry Ringrose (Leinster), Rory Scannell (Munster), Jonathan Sexton (Leinster), Andrew Trimble (Ulster), Simon Zebo (Munster)

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j
john 19 minutes ago
Will the Crusaders' decline spark a slow death for New Zealand rugby?

But here in Australia we were told Penney was another gun kiwi coach, for the Tahs…….and yet again it turned out the kiwi coach was completely useless. Another con job on Australian rugby. As was Robbie Deans, as was Dave Rennie. Both coaches dumped from NZ and promoted to Australia as our saviour. And the Tahs lap them up knowing they are second rate and knowing that under pressure when their short comings are exposed in Australia as well, that they will fall in below the largest most powerful province and choose second rate Tah players to save their jobs. As they do and exactly as Joe Schmidt will do. Gauranteed. Schmidt was dumped by NZ too. That’s why he went overseas. That why kiwi coaches take jobs in Australia, to try and prove they are not as bad as NZ thought they were. Then when they get found out they try and ingratiate themselves to NZ again by dragging Australian teams down with ridiculous selections and game plans. NZ rugby’s biggest problem is that it can’t yet transition from MCaw Cheatism. They just don’t know how to try and win on your merits. It is still always a contest to see how much cheating you can get away with. Without a cheating genius like McCaw, they are struggling. This I think is why my wise old mate in NZ thinks Robertson will struggle. The Crusaders are the nursery of McCaw Cheatism. Sean Fitzpatrick was probably the father of it. Robertson doesn’t know anything else but other countries have worked it out.

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A
Adrian 2 hours ago
Will the Crusaders' decline spark a slow death for New Zealand rugby?

Thanks Nick The loss of players to OS, injury and retirement is certainly not helping the Crusaders. Ditto the coach. IMO Penny is there to hold the fort and cop the flak until new players and a new coach come through,…and that's understood and accepted by Penny and the Crusaders hierarchy. I think though that what is happening with the Crusaders is an indicator of what is happening with the other NZ SRP teams…..and the other SRP teams for that matter. Not enough money. The money has come via the SR competition and it’s not there anymore. It's in France, Japan and England. Unless or until something is done to make SR more SELLABLE to the NZ/Australia Rugby market AND the world rugby market the $s to keep both the very best players and the next rung down won't be there. They will play away from NZ more and more. I think though that NZ will continue to produce the players and the coaches of sufficient strength for NZ to have the capacity to stay at the top. Whether they do stay at the top as an international team will depend upon whether the money flowing to SRP is somehow restored, or NZ teams play in the Japan comp, or NZ opts to pick from anywhere. As a follower of many sports I’d have to say that the organisation and promotion of Super Rugby has been for the last 20 years closest to the worst I’ve ever seen. This hasn't necessarily been caused by NZ, but it’s happened. Perhaps it can be fixed, perhaps not. The Crusaders are I think a symptom of this, not the cause

13 Go to comments
T
Trevor 5 hours ago
Will forgotten Wallabies fit the Joe Schmidt model?

Thanks Brett.. At last a positive article on the potential of Wallaby candidates, great to read. Schmidt’s record as an international rugby coach speaks for itself, I’m somewhat confident he will turn the Wallaby’s fortunes around …. on the field. It will be up to others to steady the ship off the paddock. But is there a flaw in my optimism? We have known all along that Australia has the players to be very competitive with their international rivals. We know that because everyone keeps telling us. So why the poor results? A question that requires a definitive answer before the turn around can occur. Joe Schmidt signed on for 2 years, time to encompass the Lions tour of 2025. By all accounts he puts family first and that’s fair enough, but I would wager that his 2 year contract will be extended if the next 18 months or so shows the statement “Australia has the players” proves to be correct. The new coach does not have a lot of time to meld together an outfit that will be competitive in the Rugby Championship - it will be interesting to see what happens. It will be interesting to see what happens with Giteau law, the new Wallaby coach has already verbalised that he would to prefer to select from those who play their rugby in Australia. His first test in charge is in July just over 3 months away .. not a long time. I for one wish him well .. heaven knows Australia needs some positive vibes.

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B
Bull Shark 9 hours ago
Jake White: Are modern rugby players actually better?

Of the rugby I’ve born witness to in my lifetime - 1990 to date - I recognize great players throughout those years. But I have no doubt the game and the players are on average better today. So I doubt going back further is going to prove me wrong. The technical components of the game, set pieces, scrums, kicks, kicks at goal. And in general tactics employed are far more efficient, accurate and polished. Professional athletes that have invested countless hours on being accurate. There is one nation though that may be fairly competitive in any era - and that for me is the all blacks. And New Zealand players in general. NZ produces startling athletes who have fantastic ball skills. And then the odd phenomenon like Brooke. Lomu. Mcaw. Carter. Better than comparing players and teams across eras - I’ve often had this thought - that it would be very interesting to have a version of the game that is closer to its original form. What would the game look like today if the rules were rolled back. Not rules that promote safety obviously - but rules like: - a try being worth 1 point and conversion 2 points. Hence the term “try”. Earning a try at goals. Would we see more attacking play? - no lifting in the lineouts. - rucks and break down laws in general. They looked like wrestling matches in bygone eras. I wonder what a game applying 1995 rules would look like with modern players. It may be a daft exercise, but it would make for an interesting spectacle celebrating “purer” forms of the game that roll back the rules dramatically by a few versions. Would we come to learn that some of the rules/combinations of the rules we see today have actually made the game less attractive? I’d love to see an exhibition match like that.

29 Go to comments
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