New Zealand rugby was due for a shake-up, having been shaken down by the Pumas, the Springboks and England in 2025. It is just over two weeks since I penned this piece which has accrued almost 1,000 comments to date. To recycle an old Yogi Berra tautology, “it’s like déjà vu, all over again”. The ‘we’ on that forum – writer and many of the posters – must have sniffed a sea change in the air.
Just over a fortnight later, Scott Robertson is yesterday’s news, at least as head coach of the All Blacks. You would have thought 20 wins out of 27 games at a respectable 74% win rate would have been enough to keep most coaches in a job. Not in the current coaching climate. Not in New Zealand.
“I always thought that record might stand until it was broken,” as Yogi might have added. Razor was there, right there; until suddenly, he wasn’t. The New Zealand Rugby board voted unanimously to uproot Robertson after considering the findings of a 2025-in-review report for two or three hours. When NZR chairman David Kirk sounded out the players’ leadership group about Robertson leaving, the response was dramatically muted: “They just absorbed it. They didn’t ask any questions, and they didn’t have any real, strong response.” That is not the reaction of a set of players who want the coach to stay.
Razor had lost the support of those on high in the administrative apparatus, and he had lost the confidence of the players underneath him. The most senior man in the senior player group, Ardie Savea, was reportedly looking at fresh challenges in pastures new, with a move to Irish super-province Leinster in the offing. Under the current selection criteria, that would probably have rendered him ineligible for national selection. The All Blacks environment was no longer providing sufficient reason to stay home, so Savea had decided to play away instead.
The previous piece was about how New Zealand is missing out on overseas IP, with a home-grown coaching panel of limited international experience. Upon the announcement of Razor’s departure, Kirk made a point of expressing the union’s desire to open up the debate and look overseas when addressing the media in Auckland.
“The mid-point in the Rugby World Cup cycle is the right time to look at the All Blacks’ progress over the first two seasons,” Kirk said. “The team are set to play a significant 2026 schedule [including ‘The Greatest Rivalry’ tour to arch rivals South Africa], and the tournament in 2027 remains the key goal.
“We are completely open. We’re going to cast the net wide. We’re going to get as many people [in] as we can. We think coaching the all Blacks is the greatest rugby coaching role in the world.
“And we’re very hopeful we’ll see lots of highly-qualified candidates.”
That could mean one of two things: either native New Zealanders who have accumulated a lot of relevant experience abroad, such as Joe Schmidt, Vern Cotter, Dave Rennie and Jamie Joseph; or it may represent a genuine invitation to the likes of Ronan O’Gara to set a new precedent and become the first overseas head coach of the All Blacks.
The stars certainly appear to be aligning for the two-time Investec Champions Cup winning coach at La Rochelle. Roughly one week after my article appeared, RugbyPass’ own Neil Fissler revealed “O’Gara is preparing to hold talks with his La Rochelle bosses to decide whether he will leave his job on France’s Atlantic coast this summer or stay for another year to see out the rest of his contract.”
With the Munsterman apparently on his way out of the Charente-Maritime, the timing of the All Blacks vacancy could not be more opportune. One of the other main contenders, the erstwhile head coach of Australia, Schmidt, left the job expressly because it allowed him too little time to care for his son, who suffers from epilepsy. The private and the public were not in balance: two years ago, Schmidt had bemoaned the need to “escape from the public part of things – it just impacts my family, and it impacts me.”
Director of high performance at Rugby Australia, Peter Horne, observed Schmidt’s positive impact on the Wallabies while highlighting the higher concern: “he has made it clear he wants to spend more time with his family and was not seeking a longer-term deal.” The strength of that reasoning sounds like a flag planted solidly in the ground, and it would preclude a pressure-laden job like the All Blacks.
One of the major attractions of another primary candidate, Jamie Joseph, is his historical South Island coaching partnership with Tony Brown. Rassie Erasmus recently signed an extension to his contract as Springboks head coach which takes him all the way through to the 2031 World Cup, and the double World Cup winner has always made it clear the extension needs to apply to his full cadre of assistant coaches. If Tony is committed to Rassie, he won’t be able to coach with Jamie.
The key to Brown’s relationship with Erasmus is creative animation. During Robertson’s tenure outward expressions of emotion in the New Zealand coaching booth were as carefully withheld as the explosions of spectacle on it, with Razor and co playing euphoria and misery alike with a dead bat.
According to the man from Otago, it is the opposite in the Springboks, where a kind of ‘creative chaos’ sets the mood.
“It’s pretty intense in there,” Brown said. “If I could have a beer, I would have a beer because I’m pretty low key!…
“Rassie’s definitely an innovative guy, he’s always asking the coaches to come up with something new and something different.
“Whether it’s defensively, whether it’s kicking game-wise, set-piece-wise or attack-wise, he’s always asking the question, ‘would this work?’
“I’m always up for anything as you know, so it’s an exciting coaching team to be a part of.”
The formula has become the reverse of what it was, and that is why a dyed-in-the-wool ex-All Black is now such a big part of a Springbok coaching panel in 2026. In the short term at least, excitement and dynamic creativity has found a home elsewhere, outside New Zealand.
Ten years ago, it used to be the All Blacks who broke down teams in the second half of matches by utilising their superior conditioning and individual skill-sets and cruising away effortlessly in the fourth quarter. Under Razor they were hoist by their own petard. Look at these stats culled from the past two Rugby Championships and the November game against England.
Those figures suggest the All Blacks coaching panel only really planned for the game as it started, never as it ended or reached a climax after the hour mark. The game planning often started very well indeed, but by the finish it was more often than not a damp squib.
Even England, perennially stodgy England, have been willing to change their playing personality and become more energised and mettlesome at the pointy end of matches.
England had lost to New Zealand three times in 2024 by a combined total of 10 points, and they failed to score a point after the hour mark in all of them. They recognised there was a problem and did something positive about it. Robertson never sorted his players into ‘starters’ and ‘finishers’, he rarely if ever appeared to consider using the 6/2 split and he never rationalised his bench with either philosophy in mind.
From that point of view, the game which did for Razor was probably not the 33-19 defeat at Twickenham but the cataclysmic thrashing by the Springboks at the Cake Tin in Wellington two months earlier. The All Blacks lost the game 43-10, but more importantly they lost the second half 36-0 and the final quarter 26-0. The ghosts raised in that final 40 minutes were never exorcised in the six matches that followed to round out 2025.
In Wellington, the Springboks were the ones creating turnovers and shifting the ball wide under the ‘Tony-ball’ influence.
— William Bishop (@RPvids1994) January 15, 2026
Win the ball wide-right and spin it wide-left. Bounce-ball in midfield? No problem. Three-versus-three with no obvious overlap on outside? No problem. We will find a way to create something out of nothing. It is the antithesis of conservative South Africa but under Erasmus and Brown, the Boks have been trying on some old All Black rags from their golden era and finding they fit the men in green and gold rather nicely.
Counterattack from our own end, shift the ball from one sideline to the other and keep the ball for 80 minutes and 60 seconds until we score? No problem.
— William Bishop (@RPvids1994) January 15, 2026
— William Bishop (@RPvids1994) January 15, 2026
The difference in attitude on counterattack is hiding in plain sight. On the one hand, Savea countering from his own end like lone wolf, chipping and hoping, epitomising a team which did not convert one solitary try from a turnover or an open field kick in the entire 2025 Rugby Championship; scoring 70% of their tries from positions acquired inside their opponent’s 22m line. On the other, a Springbok team properly tuned up by Brown to make the most of every broken-field opportunity going.
— William Bishop (@RPvids1994) January 15, 2026
The animation in the coaching booth mirrors the euphoria on the field. There is no holding back under Erasmus, no hiding your cards up your sleeve or keeping a poker face. You go all-in and you are not afraid to show it.
For the time being at least, excitement and creativity has packed its bags and moved out of New Zealand, but the courageous decision to part ways with Robertson may just be the right call to bring it back, before it moves out of earshot completely.
There will be more gut-checks made as the search for a new head coach moves towards its conclusion. Will an overseas coach be appointed to a senior position for the first time in All Blacks history? Will O’Gara get the shot at international coaching he has so clearly earned? As the great Berra once opined, “If you don’t know where you are going, you might wind up someplace else.”
Another great read. Awesome that you added some of the clips and I will say some things that perhaps no one noticed from that historic loss for New Zealand.
In the clip of the counter attack where Beauden Barrett is leading the chase, he is actually the one that kicks it. So you have oldest player getting there first, with none of his teammates really running hard enough to be in sync for a proper kick chase defense.
Then in the other clip of where the last try is scored, you can see Finlay Christie shout over “Duups” to Kirifi as clearly they are done for numbers on the other side. As the ball goes wide, watch prop Jan-Henrik Wessels easily outrun both Kirifi and Holland. Those 3 had all come off the bench. Amazingly, it was actually the Springbok who had come on at the beginning of the second half (41’) while the Highlander came on at 62’ and the Hurricane came on at 65’. So there was not even an excuse for fatigue, if anything you’d think the Bulls player would be the one tired given his position.
These efforts are unacceptable and show a team not giving their all.
Coaching has been part of the problem but I do believe that the players have a lot to prove as well now, there could be a lot more pain on the way and a new appointment might not change that straight away. Particularly as two years have been wasted since the last World Cup in terms of developing players by picking the likes of Cane/Perenara along with not having a successful and steady game plan.
It’s ironic isn’t it? Razor wanted to run a more set-piece laden power game that you’d normally stereotypically associate with the Springboks and England, and that led to the team kicking a lot more than we ever did (I don’t think I’d ever seen the All Blacks play as much kick tennis as they have before the last two years) and shifting the ball out wide a lot lot less. Tony Brown has the Springboks running the fast break like we were known for doing for so long (albeit alongside the set piece dominance). Clearly the former didn’t gel with the players who’d been used to doing that since their schoolboy days and it showed with how messy they looked on the field. The Boks under Brown on the other hand showed that counterattacking rugby still works and isn’t as dead as a lot of experts seemed to claim it was.
I’ve commented elsewhere, NZ will beat most teams on nearly all occasions and are more than capable of beating the 2-3 best teams on any given occasion. But they have needed the bounce of the ball or the moment of magic for those second type of games in recent times. I think that is evidenced by the results. As an example, and not to relitigate the blockers for Ireland, one great tackle by Jordie Barret was the difference maker on the scoreboard for me in an otherwise fantastic game of rugby that either team could have won.
I’ve no skin in the game but would assume that the pressures that are facing NZR are not just about results but also about performance, brand narrative for the storied All Blacks and then regional strength of the game. Robertson had struck me as a real man manager at Crusaders and I liked what I heard about his methodology and stacking of themes for a season. I thought O’Gara learned a lot there and spoke so highly of the experience and how it helped him take on a head coach gig. There are obviously strengths to his approach.
But…clearly he was not able to apply that strength in a productive way here. Where Borthwick or Erasmus can chop and change coaching tickets, this was seen as a flaw with Robertson. The recurring questions about midfield or best balance in the pack or which are the best half backs are part of the gig, but the questions never seemed to stop - even with games that New Zealand won! Feels like the timing is good for him personally as he may get a club gig starting next season up here. Quins are in the rumor mill. My assumption is that Joseph has the seal of approval and will get the job, the rest of the names are just speculative. Schmidt has never shown appetite to break a contract, Chieka is too like Robertson and will (IMO) get you through the next WC, Wayne Smith is a true servant of the game but might be best as a #2 or mentor, Jake White is on the list because I think he needs the job, O’Gara is never in the running as #1.
So, ahead of a huge year for NZR they are bedding in a new coach/manager and hoping their players don’t all bog off to Japan or France while they build to win a World Cup in 2 years as the only acceptable outcome. Tough gig for whoever comes in.
Warren Gatland would be an excellent choice for the ABs.
You guys should definitely consider him!
You hire him when Brown exercises his get out call. perfect fit?
Browns not going anywhere New Zealand. Suck it.
He might end up spying for Jamie Joseph 🤣 That would be an easy way to get out if his contract.
Welcome to South Africa
Your HC tells a bunch of porkies every interview.
Welcome to South Africa.
You’re welcome
It looked like the All Blacks gave up in the last quarter. It was terrible to watch from an All Blacks fan point of view.
Though it was nice to see that the Springboks have added positivity to their game and were able to take advantage of the opportunities they made through scoreboard pressure.
A lot of talk from the North is about how his 74% win ratio is pretty good and that kiwis expectations are out of touch.
Kiwis expect to be either favorites or at least a good chance at the World Cup.
He was 8 from 15 against SA, ENG, IRE, ARG and France A.
These are the teams we’ll face at the business end of the WC.
Also three of those wins were against ENG while they were having some wobbles, they’re a different beast now and they all could easily have been losses anyway. Remove those and it’s 5 from 12 or 42% against top sides.
Simplified logic says 3 knockout matches with a 42% chance of winning puts our chance at the Webb Ellis at 7.4%. With a solid chance we loose to the boks in the quarters too.
No kiwi accepts that.
If France sent a full strength side it could’ve been 17 wins 10 losses, 63%.
Fair comment and analysis. And yes unacceptable. But apart from SA, what do the win loss ratios look like for the other top tier teams over the last 24 months ie when playing other top 5? By my reckoning their (England, Ireland, France) loss / win record against the other top five is weirdly coincidental at 6/9 or 67% loss / 33% win record - well worse than the ABs. This does not shift the narrative about Razor but it does highlight the unusually high expectations NZ had of Razor’s ABs.
As the news of Razor’s departure sinks in, I can’t help but feel the AB’s are going to bounce back fairly strongly from this.
Hats off to David Kirk, he’s inherited a tough time moving all the senior people out on the admin side, them brought in KM to sound out the players and taken action on that side to remove Razor and from his comments of the new coach will get to pick their team, it sounds like all the assistants are also on notice.
You’ve basically got a new Chair who has “cleaned house” in the first 6 months with fairly brutal efficiency and is now putting his house together the way he wants it.
I think David Kirk means serious business and I really believe he will put a very good coaching ticket together and there will quickly be a bounce in performance on the back of this.
The bounce back includes playing the Boks 4 times - which is a tough task.
I think it depends on how much of the AB team changes.
I see another 70% season as a safe bet. Maybe worse. But to expect them to play better than they have in 7 seasons “quickly” is what just cost Razor his job.
All the hallmarks of typical PE investment behaviour!
I see two excellent coaching tickets available- Jamie Joseph/ Tony Brown and Vern Cotter/ Joe Schmidt as both of these pairs have tons of international experience and both have coached with each other and won club competitions (Joseph/ Brown won Super Rugby at Highlanders and Cotter/ Schmidt won Champions Cup at Montpellier).
Dave Rennie, Warren Gatland, and Robbie Deans are also all available. Cotter was an assistant coach under Deans during his Crusaders dynasty.
Why on earth would you put Warren Gatland’s name there?
Agree we need to look at all options. Didn’t realise Cotrer worked with Schmidt and Deans, interesting.
The players from the 2010s may be retired but NZ still has a lot of very experienced coaches!
You might get 1001 comments on this one Nick!
This is very poignant, I think for most kiwis the fumbling attack was more frustrating than if they’d dropped some games but looked threatening with the ball. It was almost like we didn’t want the ball at times.
It was especially frustrating to get spanked by the Boks playing how we’d like to!
If you win by a whisker and loose by a mile and you’re not exciting to watch anyway, you’ve lost the magic that made them NZRs cash cow. (As well as a significant brand for NZ as a county) David Kirk understands this and acted
Ronan O’Gara has zero chance of being named head coach, nor does Pat Lam, because the lesson learned from Razor’s hiring is that any All Black head coach MUST have prior international coaching experience, probably as a head coach, but at the very least as an assistant coach.
1000%
Assistant Coach to Joseph?
What a shock, but good for NZ. They were looking vulnerable against any of the top teams. The end of 40mins and 80 mins were very different compared to the AB’s of just a couple of years ago.
Canterbury continuously produces a good batch of players, and generally, they seem to support the coach, whoever it is.
I hope Razor comes to Quins.. 🙏🤞
Im hearing Quins or Newcastle at this point.
I did wonder about that, especially with Sean Fitzpatrick having so much influence behind the scene at Quins.
A rough obituary NB that is difficult to disagree with (though I think some credit is due for Razor trying to reshape the mould). One additional factor that has clearly affected this process is the presence of a hard edged corporate equity partner. They will be demanding a high level of due diligence after the last 2 (6) years. I do wonder though whether this could ultimately back fire as short term gain assumes more significance than it should. Joseph is the obvious choice based on orthodox measures - including especially his connection to NZ and the rugby culture here. But the equity partner may demand a less idiosyncratic measure. Hope not as I think bringing in a foreign head coach right now would be just too jarring in what is a huge year.
He really looked lost at sea when he entered the test arena. SRP failed him or fooled him into believing that coaching at test level was going to be easy when he said rather arrogantly that he was looking forward to winning two World Cups with two different teams.
Well reality hit him in the face and as the pressure built he first lost one assistant, then the next then locker room.
Looking back I do not see him as a 74% winning coach if you only look at his results against the top 6 teams it is ugly reading. Kirk will be wise not to repeat the mistake of picking another bubble SRP coach with not travelled experience playing in different leagues with different challenges.
I think a big part of the issue is Robertson’s coaching method which pushes most of the decision making on the assistants. Of which Ryan is probably the only real internation level assistant.
I realize that Scott Hansen was an assistant under Jamie Joseph, but Scott Hansen seems to have been a big part of the current issue with the All Black coaching culture.
Yes there was ample Leinster-Crusaders contact over Covid…. I would not say it was arrogance but you could tell Razor had not had much experience of losing!
Life is much much harder at international level and he found that out. He never really came up with anything new and that is where NZ has fallen behind SA and prob England too!
There’s been a clean-out too, Nick, of the people who put Razor there. New chair, Mark Robinson gone, Mike Anthony gone. NZR were very fortunate that they were between CEOs, which enabled David Kirk to run the review. He had some help from Don Tricker, but essentially it was Kirk and Kevin Meealamu who ran the interviews. That Kirk bought Kevin in was a master stroke - the man is revered by everyone who’s had any dealings with him and having Kevin in the room would immediately signal rugby nous and empathy to the ABs who had to spill their guts about what was happening to their team.
So a clean-out from top to bottom by a Chair who, yes, is a business titan but doesn’t speak corporate word salad, and is also an RWC winning AB captain.
I was really impressed by Kirk in the media stand-up yesterday. I prob shouldn’t be, cause he should be a great communicator, but I thought he was awesome. Also super surprised by the willingness for NZR to actually take some action.
It’s funny isn’t it GM? None of us could have guessed how deeply the clean-out would go even a couple of weeks ago…. how quickly things change!
I suspect the presence of good ppl like Tricker and Mealamu made a lot of diff. They know what true winning environments look like at this level.
I know how highly Ted and Smithy rated Keven from previous convos many years ago.
Empathy leading to action. It’s quite a story.
Cheers NB. How much was your article modified by events?good timing anyway. It seems Joseph is the front runner as there has been a story that he has been away from Highlanders training all week suggesting some turkey talk in Wellington. I also suspect that NZR are willing to pay the cash for Tony Brown to leave his job. In a way that would be a shame as I really like what he is building with Rassie.
I wonder if this is the first step in a restructure of rugby in NZ as Super is failing in fan engagement. NZRU has a real problem with revenue not being enough to create profit and Silver Lake getting their cut each year regardless.
I had no idea ROG was so close to the edge two weeks ago, if that’s what you mean OM. But I did feel something was quite wrong in that AB environment…. We didn’t quite know what it was ofc, but we didn’t need to. That does not change the rightness of the impression.
Tony Brown will be key if JJ is to get the job. Not convinced he will be so quick to abandon the Boks when Rassie gave him his big break and NZ ignored him. Loyalty.👍