Rennie can't turn rocks into diamonds but not all hope's lost for Wallabies
Dave Rennie is a smart operator, but he’s no miracle worker.
Contrary to what’s been said over the past few weeks, although there may have been much chopping and changing to the Wallabies team throughout the year, you can bet your bottom dollar that Dave Rennie has a very clear idea in his head who would make the line-up in a World Cup knockout match if it were being played next weekend.
There’s a narrative going around that Rennie needs to settle on a first-choice side now but that’s not the approach the Kiwi adopted when he led the Chiefs to back-to-back titles in 2012 and 2013. Every week, five or six players would shuffle in and out of the run-on XV, bar a few men who simply couldn’t be left out. Come the finals series, however, Rennie picked a team and stuck with it – and it paid massive dividends.
Undoubtedly, Rennie is taking a similar approach to his stint in charge of the Wallabies. A clear selection pattern has emerged in some positions and the vast majority of punters could select the bulk of the starting side that Rennie would opt for if Saturday’s match against Wales were a World Cup final.
James Slipper, Dave Porecki and Allan Alaalatoa have missed just a handful of matches between them and are the clear-cut first-choice front row.
In the loose forwards, Michael Hooper is nailed on at No 7 and Rob Valetini has started all but two Tests this season at the back of the scrum (he was rested against Italy and shifted to the blindside flank in the second Bledisloe Cup clash).
Nic White has been a constant at halfback, a fit Samu Kerevi is world-class and Len Ikitau has made the No 13 jersey his own since debuting last year.
Throw in Tom Wright and Marika Koroibete, and you have a consistent spine of players who Rennie has called upon week after week.
There are a number of strong back-ups across the board too, with Angus Bell, Taniela Tupou, Folau Fainga’a, Pete Samu, Jake Gordon and Hunter Paisami regularly featuring in the 23 or stepping into starting roles when injuries have forced Rennie’s hand.
Said injuries have complicated things in a few positions, of course – as well as the unavailability of some players throughout the season.
The locking situation is somewhat unclear, with Rory Arnold and Will Skelton getting limited opportunities due to the above issues. Matt Philip, Cadeyrn Neville and Nick Frost have all been afforded plenty of minutes throughout the year while Jed Holloway has split his time between the second and back rows.
The No 10 jersey remains the biggest concern, with Quade Cooper ostensibly the first-choice in the position but getting just one start there this year. Bernard Foley is serviceable, as is James O’Connor – but they’re not going to win Australia a World Cup.
Perhaps the biggest blight of Rennie’s career has now been bringing in a new talent at flyhalf but the only real option in that role is Noah Lolesio. If Rennie had stuck with Lolesio throughout 2021 and 2022, would the Wallabies be in a better position heading into next year’s tournament?
Outside of Lolesio, the cupboard is bare. The likes of Tane Edmed, Ben Donaldson and Will Harrison will never be greats of the game and putting Australia’s faith in one of that trio to lead them to glory in 2027 will backfire spectacularly.
That really emphasises the biggest problem in Australia – and it’s not Rennie’s selection policy.
The fact of the matter is that the players are simply not as good as the generational talents of the past. Perhaps that’s a product of the resources in Australia or the ongoing battle for talent with the NRL, but it’s clear as day that the youngsters coming through the ranks aren’t up to the standards of a top-three Test rugby nation – and that means no matter who’s in charge of the Wallabies, they’re always going to struggle to compete with the likes of New Zealand, Ireland, France and England.
That doesn’t mean they can’t grab wins against those nations. The recent loss to Ireland showed that it’s entirely possible for Australia to remain competitive with the best sides in the world, but there’ll also be a few 40-point thumpings along the way. The Australia of 2022 is no different to the Ireland side of the early 2000s, or a post-2003 England.
In years gone by, the Wallabies would be able to put out a second-string side and still put Italy to the sword – but that’s just not the case anymore, as Rennie found out in Florence.
A World Cup title looks out of reach for the Wallabies at present but with Rennie at the helm, there’s the distinct possibility that a semi-final finish is in reach – and that would be a mighty fine achievement for the current Australian side. Should Rennie’s men top their pool in France (their main competitor is Wales), they’ll almost certainly face off with Argentina in the quarters, giving them a very real chance of progressing to the next stage of the competition.
They could even cause an upset in the semi-finals – as they almost did in Dublin in the weekend gone.
But ultimately, Australia’s lack of success this year or next won’t be a result of too much chopping and changing by Rennie. There are bigger issues at play.
Comments on RugbyPass
To me TJ is clearly the best 9 in the competition right now but he's also a proven player off the bench, there's few playmaking players who can come off the bench as calm and settled as he is, Beauden can, TJ can and I doubt any of the scrumhalves in contention can, if they want to experiment with new 9s I want him on the bench ready to step in if they crumble under the pressure. The Boks put their best front row on the bench, I'd like to see us take a similar approach, the Hurricanes have been doing similar things with players like Kirifi.
30 Go to commentsROG has better chance to win a WC if he starts training and make himself eligible as a player. He won’t make the Ireland squad but I reckon he may get close with Namibia (needs to improve his Afrikaans) or Portugal. Both sides had 1000:1 odds to win the RWC in 2023 which is an improvement on ROG’s odds of winning a RWC as a coach. Unlike Top 14 teams, national teams can’t go shopping and buy the best players - you work with the available talent pool and turn them into world beaters.
2 Go to commentsthat backline nope that backline is terrible why would you have sevu Reece when he’s not even top 5 wingers in the comp why have Blackadder when there’s better players no Scott barret isn’t an automatic the guy is more of a liability than anything why have him there when you have samipeni who’s far far better
30 Go to commentsAh, good to find you Nick. Agree with everything about Cale. So much to like about his game
49 Go to commentsNot too bad. Questions at 6, lock and HB for me. The ABs will be a lot stronger once Jordan and Roigard return. Also, work needs to be made to secure Frizzell back for next season and maybe also Mo’unga; they’re just wasting time playing in japan
30 Go to commentsOn the title, i wonder for many of those people it is a case something like a belief in working smarter, not harder?
1 Go to commentsForget Sotutu. One of those whose top level is Super Rugby. Id take a punt on Wallace Sititi Finau ahead of Glass body Blackadder.
30 Go to commentsI’m a pensioner so I've been around a bit. My opinion of SBW is he is an elite athlete and a great New Zealander and roll model. He has been to the top and knows what he's talking about. To all the negative comments regarding SBW the typical New Zealand way, cut that tall poppy down.
17 Go to commentsI'm not listening to a guy moralise over others when this is the guy who walked out mid season on Canterbury RLFC when he had a contract with them, what a hypocrite. Those praising him are a joke.
17 Go to commentsI’d put Finau at 6 instead of Blackadder but that’s the only change I’d make. Can’t wait to see who Razor picks.
30 Go to commentsTamati Williams, Codie Taylor, and Same Cane? Not sure about Hoskins Sotutu at test level. Wasn’t that impressive last season. Need a balance between experience and talent/youth.
30 Go to commentsInteresting insight. Fantastic athlete, and a genuine human being.
17 Go to commentsThey played at night in Suva last weekend and it’s an afternoon game forecast for 19 degrees in Canberra this weekend. Heat change is a non issue.
1 Go to commentsWishing Rosie a speedy recovery
1 Go to commentsObscene that SA haven’t been knocking
1 Go to commentsChances of Blackadder being injured seem too high to give him serious consideration. ABs loosie combination finally looked good with 2 committed to tackling and clearing rucks in the centre and Ardie roaming. Hoskins/Ardie together would force one of them into where they don’t excel and don’t get to use their talent, or require a change in tactics. If we continue to evolve last years systems I would take Papali’i and Finau at 6 and 7 (conceding that Blackadder will be injured) and Ardie at 8.
30 Go to commentsArdie’s preferred position 7? Where do they get these writers from? I've no idea where he's playing in Japan, but the previous two seasons he wore the 7 jersey exactly twice.
17 Go to commentsNot good to hear Ulster described as “financially troubled”. Did not think it was getting to that level. I would hope the Irish system of spreading players of talent away from Leinster would kick in now. Better to have a Leinster fringe player with Ulster or Connacht, then getting only a few games a season in Dublin. 10, for example, would seem to be a case for spreading the talent. I would not be at all adverse to a SA man coming in as head coach/DR. Ludeke is worth trying. Certainly got a long and impressive coaching career at this level…..149 games in SR, then Japan, 30 years experience. And Ulster’s ledger of successful SA coaches and players is on the positive side. Is talk of Ruan Pienaar interested in coming back as a coach…..could be a good combination with Ludeke. And Pienaar and family would have no settling in to do, one would judge. He loved life in Ulster when there, by all reports.
1 Go to commentsSome thoughts to consider here, Sam. Thanks
2 Go to commentsI think he is right, SBW is respected in RSA. The guy who never stood up is a worm. Sseems lots of NZ SBW hate, you do the crime do the time.
17 Go to comments