Premiership relegation battle reignites: Permutations and the runners and riders
With just five rounds to go in the 2018/19 Gallagher Premiership regular season, the battle to avoid relegation took some interesting twists and turns in Round 17.
Leicester Tigers got the ball rolling on Friday evening, hosting Northampton Saints in a game that is one of, if not the most anticipated derby in club rugby, with hopes of using that home advantage to grab some points and propel themselves away from the teams at the bottom of the competition. Unfortunately for Tigers, Chris Boyd’s men were more than up for the challenge and left Welford Road with a 29-15 victory.
Worcester Warriors then added to the intrigue by beating Bristol Bears, 27-25, at Ashton Gate, both improving their own chances of survival, as well as dragging Bristol back into the relegation scuffle, after it had looked as if the promoted side had begun to distance themselves from the battle to avoid 12th.
The bottom four was rounded out by Newcastle Falcons on Saturday evening, as the side from the north-east beat Sale Sharks, 22-17, at St James’ Park, bringing them to within one game of both Worcester and Leicester, albeit still at the bottom of the table.
With a maximum of 25 points up for grabs in those five rounds still to come, anything is possible at the bottom of the table, but realistically the sides involved are going to be looking at totals of much less than that in the season’s run-in. These are how the schedules of each of the sides in the mix look over the coming rounds.
Bristol Bears, 36 points – Bath (a), Saracens (h), Leicester Tigers (a), Sale Sharks (h), Newcastle Falcons (a).
Leicester Tigers, 34 points – Exeter Chiefs (h), Newcastle Falcons (a), Bristol Bears (h), Harlequins (a), Bath (h).
Worcester Warriors, 32 points – Wasps (a), Sale Sharks (h), Gloucester (h), Northampton Saints (a), Saracens (h).
Newcastle Falcons, 29 points – Saracens (a), Leicester Tigers (h), Northampton Saints (h), Gloucester (a), Bristol Bears (h).
It is not out of the question that the trio of Wasps (37 points), Bath (39 points) and Sale (40 points) could also be dragged into the mix, albeit Bath have a game in hand which they will play on Sunday against Exeter.
Bristol are the only one of the four sides in the quagmire at the bottom with more away games than home ones to finish the season, but they do enjoy the points advantage at the moment, as well as two of those away games coming against sides in the bottom four, which may well encourage them that a result is certainly possible. Conversely, it could be argued that those two fixtures offer eight-point swings at the bottom and the home advantages on those occasions will be with both Leicester and Newcastle.
Tigers’ situation has quickly worsened in the recent rounds and it’s difficult to see them getting too much out of their fixtures with Exeter and Harlequins, with those fixtures sandwiching pivotal games against both Newcastle and Bristol. Conservatively, you would say they need at least two wins from the final five and Bristol and Bath at Welford Road could be those targeted, although a win at Kingston Park in Round 19 would go a long way to easing worries in the East Midlands.
Worcester have arguably the toughest schedule to see out the season. They face none of the other sides in the bottom four and both Gloucester and Saracens will arrive at Sixways as favourites. Neither Wasps nor Northampton have been the most consistent of sides this season, but they will both enjoy home advantage against Warriors. Worcester’s home fixture against Sale is likely the only one of their remaining five where they will be seen as favourites by the bookies.
Combined with Worcester’s challenging end to the season, the fact Newcastle host two of their relegation rivals in Leicester and Bristol, as well as Northampton, who have been susceptible on the road, breathes fresh life into their survival hopes. Trips to Kingsholm and Allianz Park have the potential to be fruitless, but Dean Richard’s side could be looking at 12+ points from their final home fixtures.
It is without doubt one of the most compelling contests at the bottom of the table that the competition has seen and for a side as storied and well-supported as Leicester to be in the mix only adds to the unique spectacle of it.
Tigers are far from safe and if they turn in five more performances like the one they showed against Northampton on Friday night, it could well be the 10-times champions of England who ultimately face the drop, but it’s tough to look too far beyond Worcester at this point, who despite their crucial win over Bristol in Round 18, have the most testing run in of all four clubs.
Newcastle’s three wins on the bounce in the Premiership has them full of momentum, too, and their upward trajectory has only added to the compelling nature of the contest, where Leicester need energy fast, Worcester need to upset the odds and Bristol just need to be careful and not let their current advantage slip.
Watch: Eddie Jones is frustrated by England’s mental lapses
Comments on RugbyPass
Oh wow… “But as La Rochelle proved in winning in Cape Town this season, a cross-continental away assignment need not spell the end of days.” La Rochelle actually proved quite the opposite. After traveling to Cape town and back they (back-to-back and current champs) got mercilessly thumped the next week. If travel is not the reason, why else would a full-strength powerhouse like La Rochelle get dumped on their @r$e$ one week later?
26 Go to commentsYou know he can land a winning conversion after the full time siren is up. (Even if it takes two attempts.)
5 Go to commentsA very insightful article from Jake. I would love to know how South African’s feel about their move to Europe. Do you prefer playing in Europe or want to go back to Super Rugby?
2 Go to commentspure fire
1 Go to commentsA very well thought out summary of all the relevant complications…agree with your ”refer the Cricket Test versus 20/20 comparison”. More also definitely doesn't necessarily mean better!
2 Go to commentsMust be something when you are only 19 y.o and both NZ and France want you. Btw he wasn’t the only new caledonian in french U20 as Robin Couly also lived in Noumea until 17. Hope he’s successful wherever he chooses to play.
7 Go to comments“Several key players in the Stade Rochelais squad are in their thirties” South Africans are going to hate the implications of that comment!
5 Go to commentsI know Leinster did a job on La Roche but shortly after HT Leinster were 30-13 ahead of them and at a similar time Toulouse were trailing Exeter. At 60 mins Leinster were 27 ahead but after 67 mins Toulouse were only 19 ahead before Exeter collapsed. That’s heavier scoring by Leinster against the Champions. I think people are looking at Toulouses total a little too much. I also think Northhampton are in with a real chance, albeit I’d put Leinster as favourites. If Leinster make the final I expect them to win by more than ten and with control.
5 Go to commentsHey Nick, your match analysis is decent but the top and tail not so much, a bit more random. For a start there’s a seismic difference in regenerating any club side over a test team. EJ pretty much had to urinate with the appendage he’d been given at test level whereas club success is impacted hugely by the budget. Look no further than Boudjellal’s Toulon project for a perfect example. The set ups at La Rochelle and Leinster are like chalk and cheese and you are correct that Leinster are ahead. Leinster are not just slightly ahead though, they are light years ahead on their plans, with the next gen champions cup team already blooded, seasoned and developing at speed from their time manning the fort in the URC while the cream play CC and tests. They have engineered a strong talent conveyor belt into their system, supported by private money funnelled into a couple of Leinster private schools. The really smart move from Leinster and the IRFU however is maximising the Irish Revenue tax breaks (tax relief on the best 10 years earnings refunded at retirement) to help keep all of their stars in Ireland and happy, while simultaneously funding marquee players consistently. And of course Barrett is the latest example. But in no way is he a “replacement for Henshaw”, he’s only there for one season!!! As for Rob Baxter, the best advice you can give him is to start lobbying Parliament and HMRC for a similar state subsidy, but don’t hold your breath… One thing Cullen has been very smart with is his coaching team. Very quickly he realised his need to supplement his skills, there was talk of him exiting after his first couple of years but he was extremely shrewd bringing in Lancaster and now Nienaber. That has worked superbly and added a layer that really has made a tangible difference. Apart from that you were bang on the money… 😉😂
5 Go to commentsNot sure exactly what went wrong for him at Glasgow but it’s pretty clear he ain’t Franco’s cup of tea. Suspect he would have been better served heading out of Scotland around the same time as Finn, Hoggy and Jonny!
1 Go to commentsBulls disrespected the Northampton supporters and the competition. Decide quickly, fully in or out.
26 Go to commentsI wonder if Parling was ever on England’s radar as a coach? Obviously Borthwick is a great lineout coach, but I do worry he might be taking on too much as both head coach and forwards coach.
1 Go to commentsJason Jenkins has one cap. When Etzebeth was his age he had over 80 caps. Experience matters. He will never amount to what Etzebeth has because he hasn’t been developed as an international player.
2 Go to commentsSays much about the player picking this gig over the easier and bigger rewards offered to him in Japan. Also says a lot about the state sanctioned tax benefits the Irish Revenue offers pro rugby players, with their ten highest earning years subject to an additional 40% tax relief and paid as a lump sum, in cash, at retirement. Certainly helps Leinster line up the financial ducks in a row to fund marquee signings like this!!! No other union anywhere in world rugby benefits from this kind of lucrative financial sponsorship from their government…
5 Go to commentsTrue Jordie could earn a lot more in Japan. But by choosing Leinster he’ll be playing with 1 of the best clubs in the world and can win a champions cup and URC…..
6 Go to commentsThanks for that Marshy, noticed you didn't say who is gonna win it. We know who ain't gonna win it - your Crusaders outfit. They've gone from having arguably the best Super Rugby first five ever, to having a clutch of rookies. Hurricanes all the way!
1 Go to commentsGeez you really have to question the NRLs ability to produce players of quality. Its pathetic. Dont the 25mil in Aus produce enough quality womens players. Sad.
1 Go to commentsBulls fan here, and agree 100% with the conclusion (and little else) of this article. SA sides should absolutely f-off from the champs cup until we get fair scheduling, equal support for travel arrangements and home semis. You know, like all the european teams get.
26 Go to commentsI’m yet to see why Grace would be an ABs contender. He’s pedestrian and lacks the dominance required of a top flight 8.
11 Go to commentsGee my Highlanders were terrible. They have gone backwards since the start of the season. The trouble began when we left Millar behind to prep as the 10 against the Brumbies and he was disconnected from the team that came back from Aussie. We rested Patchell for that game and we blew an avalanche of ball in good attacking positions in the 1st half. Against the Rebels we seem to of gone into a pod system with forwards hanging off from the breakdown leaving Fakatava to secure our ball!
80 Go to comments