My Champions Cup quarter-final predictions - Andy Goode
It’s Champions Cup quarter-final time, one of the best weekend’s in the club rugby calendar, and you can make a case for every team but recent European pedigree is the most important factor when picking the winners for me.
Home advantage is crucial as well as visiting teams have only won 23% of the games at this stage of the competition over the years, so the law of averages says only one of the four ties will be won by the away team.
Here’s how I see the last eight action unfolding…
Edinburgh v Munster
What Cockers has done this season has been remarkable. To finish top of a pool that included Montpellier and Toulon is some achievement and home advantage at a packed Murrayfield will be a major factor but I just feel that the European pedigree and experience Munster have will carry them through to the semi-finals.
A lot of people’s hearts will be saying Edinburgh in this one and it is a tough one to call. If Bill Mata, Hamish Watson and John Barclay if he starts can win the battle of the back rows, then they’ll have every chance but you can’t back against the kind of nous and knowledge of how to win big knockout games that Munster have.
Saracens v Glasgow
There’s a fair bit of rivalry and animosity involved in this one, not only because they’ve faced each other quite a few times of late but also with so many players having played in the Calcutta Cup as well. Ryan Wilson, who was the main protagonist in tunnel-gate before last year’s Scotland v England game, will be a big loss for the Warriors as he isn’t fit but I hear he might have thrown his hat into the ring to be waterboy and add a bit of extra spice!
Saracens’ England contingent will be desperate to put the memory of Scotland’s comeback a couple of weeks ago behind them and it’s hard to see them losing at home with the quality and European record they have, so I’m going for a home win.
Leinster v Ulster
After their struggles on and off the field last season, Dan McFarland has done a tremendous job to turn things around at Ulster in such a short space of time. Billy Burns has excelled in a number 10 jersey that had a huge cloud hanging over it and they’ve got a man in Jacob Stockdale who’s flying in Europe and has a pretty good record at the Aviva Stadium as well.
The men from Belfast will travel south with some confidence, especially if they can get a good start and put doubts in the minds of some of the Leinster players who haven’t had the best of times with Ireland of late. However, they’ve won on just one of 20 previous visits to Leinster in the PRO14 and Leinster don’t lose home quarter-finals.
The last time they lost at home at this stage was 14 years ago at Lansdowne Road when there was a visiting fly half in his prime kicking 19 points in a Leicester triumph. That’s how tough it is to win at Leinster in a quarter-final, you have to go back to the dark ages for the last time it happened, so I’m picking Leinster.
Racing v Toulouse
Toulouse are the top team in France this season and have won at the Paris La Defense Arena already, so they’ll travel there with real confidence. The run they’re on of just one defeat in their last 20 games in all competitions is a phenomenal one when you consider how difficult it normally is to win away from home in the Top 14 as well.
They would’ve probably chosen Racing if they had their pick of which of the four teams they wanted to travel to because it takes away some of the home advantage, which often proves so crucial at this stage, but the home side are the one’s with the recent European pedigree.
Toulouse may have four titles but Racing have reached the final in two of the last three seasons and I think a lot of their focus is on getting back to another. They have the carrot of a home semi-final as well if they win and I think they’ll just edge an entertaining encounter.
Predicted Semi-Final Line-Up
Saracens v Munster – Ricoh Arena
Racing v Leinster – Paris La Defense Arena
Comments on RugbyPass
Thanks for a much more balanced piece Ned and not that BS that Bin Smuth just posted a short while ago. read this article and then Bin Smuth’s and tell me there isn’t a huge difference🙄
1 Go to commentsWere the Baby Boks part of this game or did the Baby Blacks play themselves?🤔 That man Bin Smuth once again does a little write-up on the game and it is like 95% about the Baby Blacks🤣 Glad he ends off with the Baby Blacks were actually in cruise control for most of the game and weren’t actually playing for the win WTF🤣🤣 Maybe he was expecting the Baby Blacks to run rampant….
1 Go to commentsOne does not expect anything more from Ben Smith who epitomises the worst of New Zealand media arrogance and an inability to balance what he has to say about any team that beats the All Blacks. His reference to context is pathetically thin. He does not comment that Frizell deserved a red card given his blatant manipulation of his body to ensure that he could drop his body weight onto Mbonambi’s lower leg. No mention of the ball lost forward before the All Black’s try (lost in-field of the 5 metre line and gathered beyond). The All Black commitment and effort was superb and there was little in it. Given the Springbok passage to the final and the loss of their hooker in the first three minutes, their resolve and capacity to win their fourth final out of eight attempts (not three out of ten) deserves the praise that has been forthcoming from media around the world, worth reading and listening to. Ben should join his “pundit” friends on TV - he would fit in well. This sort of article reduces any credibility Rugby Pass has ever had. Why persist with this sort of nonsense? The man does his country and a rugby blog a disservice.
185 Go to commentsEtzebeth went on to say: “I would never dream of saying that systems stay in place following a change in captain. To say that would be deeply, deeply, disrespectful of Siya. A while back an Irish person told me they would be fine without Sexton, so I’m just responding to that.”
3 Go to commentsClose games are what we want to see…. What a match it was…. I am sure that everyone was drained by the end of it. The reality of it all there has to be a winner and a loser. The fact that we still talking about it is almost 6 months to the day Rugby is the winner.. Asante sana… Here is to 2027 and what it will bring out.
185 Go to commentsIt’s going to be a good game. COYQ
1 Go to comments“Shock”, the guy was casually saying he was just slightly surprised. Nowadays if you say anything it gets taken completely out of context. Calm down everyone.
156 Go to commentsAll I can say after reading this bitter, sour, sad piece is… Thank you very much! This will be read in the change room just before kick off on 31 August…
185 Go to commentsLook, we know contradicting opinions and wacky comments bring readers and clicks, so well done to RP for allowing always-wrong-Ben to say something here. However RP needs to put a disclaimer next to his comments for their own credibility. NZ was and is incapable of acknowledging their opp beating them. They refused so with Ire and with Arg in 2022 and also the Boks in 2023 x 2. Nothing Ben says here holds water, NZ attacked backwards, except when Kolisi and Kolbe was off And cyncialy took out Bongi, we played without lineouts for 75mins. Kolisi and Kurt-Lee almost scored twice. Thats 3 vs 2 for Boks, but the Boks opportunities was legal. Boks should have been 16-3 up by half time. Tacticaly the Boks attacked better defended better scrummed better (without a hooker) kicked better and crossed the whitewash more times. Boks beat Fr Eng Nz to win in 23, comeon give some credit at least. Even Federer Verstappen NY Mets, Mamoa, was able to see a great human sport achievement by the Boks and their DNA Boks #RWC27 !🏉
185 Go to commentsForget the 85kg bit, that can become something else. However I do like the one off test on ANZAC day idea. SR plays Fri/ Sat, test players travel Sunday and the squads have the full week together before playing Saturday. Rest of SR has a week off. Either involve women's teams in same location or in the other country and rotate annually. Herbert is right in that change is needed.
3 Go to commentsI’ve read loads of nonsense before but this article takes the cake. Or perhaps someone changed the date for April Fool's Day.
3 Go to commentsReally Rugbypass? Ben Smith I think you forgot what the Springboks did to the All Blacks at Twickenham 8 weeks earlier? Springboks 35 All Blacks 7. There is alot of ifs and buts in your article. The All Blacks threw the sink at the Springboks and unfortunately they were not good enough regardless if they played with 14 men or not. It was the Springboks who forced the All Blacks to make mistakes! Sorry but not Sorry the Springboks is the best ever Rugby World Cup Nation in the world. 4 Cups baby!
185 Go to commentsYou just backed the Boks with that fantastic review! Well done! Have some cake!
185 Go to commentsBen Smith please write up something better than this. The Springboks would have won the world cup if you were 15 men on the field. They would have found a way, they always find a way to beat the All Blacks.
185 Go to commentsWow, there is a lot of “could have” and “ should have” in this waist of time dribble. I love the desperation in this story to search for a glimpse at a silver lining. Here are the facts, NZ was a badly coached and undisciplined shadow of their former glory. They never took the lead in a game they were never going to win.
185 Go to commentsGOTTA MAKE ‘THE GEORGE’ HAPPEN!!!! That’s a great idea! A trans Tasman midget battle on ANZAC Day. I don’t think the ABs Wallabies game should be a one off winner takes all though, just the first match with the other two later in the year with the RC. Reason being, no one will ever shut up about how aussies couldn’t win it when it was a 3 match series.
3 Go to comments@Ben smith. Thats knock out rugby. So honeslty who cares?
185 Go to commentsIt will interesting to know which Irish players said that…
2 Go to commentsNaaaww boys will be boys! Now run along ya wee scamp! Don’t let us catch you at again😏
1 Go to commentsGreat to have Ethan Blackadder back in the Crusaders in the last few weeks. One of the best all round loose forwards around. He played so well last week against the Rebels. Fantastic attitude Ethan has and his comments are spot on.
2 Go to comments