How the Lions can beat the Crusaders
The Crusaders have been phenomenal under Scott Robertson with a 33-3 record, and are yet to lose a game at home in two years. When you consider that the franchise has never lost a playoff game at home either, the odds against the Lions continue to stack up.
Faced with an almost impossible task, what is the best possible game plan for the Lions to pull off an improbable upset? There are a number of factors in this match that will provide at least an even contest when you dive deeper into the matchup.
The Hurricanes found their pack was ultimately outmatched by the Crusaders ‘Rolls Royce’ version in the semifinal. Their star backs were almost completely nullified with slow ball and lethargic carries into the red and black wall.
What makes this contest more intriguing is the Lions have an equally strong pack, with possibly the competition’s most valuable player Malcolm Marx up front.
Marx has proven his world-class ability over the last year. He performs his core duties very well in addition to being a force with ball in hand. He leads the competition in lineout throwing efficiency at 90% and is part of a Lions front row that has decimated opposition scrums.
Jumper Franco Mostert leads the competition in lineout takes and steals, while Marvin Orie also ranks in the top 10 as a reliable second jumper. The Lions set piece platform will match, if not test the Crusaders pack. The lineout maul has been an obvious strength, which the Lions will use inside the 5 when they get the opportunity.
It is conceivable that the Lions will be able to disrupt the Crusaders set piece by competing at the lineout, and swing momentum with penalties at scrum time. They may be able to stifle the Crusaders phase play by making this a stop-start affair. The longer they can prevent the Crusaders from achieving continuity, the greater their chances of pulling off an upset.
The Lions tight five is built for traditional rugby, which will suit if wet weather packs in. The forecast for showers around kickoff will be welcomed by the visiting side, not that it will be wholly for their own benefit, but it is generally an equalizer between sides.
The Crusaders will be challenged to keep their platform stable and should props Joe Moody or Owen Franks be forced from the field, the pressure will be increased on replacement Michael Alaalatoa, who is the eighth most penalised player in the competition. The Lions would absolutely love Alaalatoa to be fed to them early.
The Crusaders compressed defence usually frees up space on the edge, and with fullback David Havili tasked with taking the last man, sides that are efficient in exploiting the edge can find good territorial gains against the Crusaders. Havili has proven a reliable one-on-one defender but with the team on the back foot, tries can be scored following large breaks down the left-hand side.
Seta Tamanivalu on the right wing is the matchup the Lions want to go to when offered the chance. The decision to leave rookie sensation Aphiwe Dyanti on the bench is puzzling when he possesses lightning speed that would match up perfectly.
In their two losses this year, opposition left wing Ben Lam had 75 run metres on three carries, scoring a try from a quick turnover. Tevita Li also had a big day, running for 117 metres on nine carries with three line breaks and eight defenders beaten. Rieko Ioane had his best outing of the season, torching the Crusaders with two tries, two try assists, nine defenders beaten and four line breaks in a game the Blues lost, but scored 24 points – all through left wing Ioane.
Benching impressive rookie Aphiwe Dyantyi in favour of another Springbok winger Courtnall Skosan might hurt, as Dyantyi has shown the ability to finish in tight windows and explode when given room. Either way, the Lions need to attack wide left off open side phase play and scrums to give Skosan and Dyantyi between 7-10 touches over the game. If they can bank one or two tries off those two it could be the difference.
The Lions played the 2016 final in New Zealand against the Hurricanes on a similar winters night, with light rain making the surface greasy and limiting the speed of the game. Crucial errors when trying to exit cost the Lions 14 points in a 20-3 loss.
Should wet weather be the case again, the responsibility falls on Elton Jantjies to direct the team around and kick well out-of-hand to relieve pressure. If he cannot do that, the Lions will stand no chance against the world-class kicking game of Richie Mo’unga and Bryn Hall. The Lions back three with Ruan Combrink and Andries Coetzee have to control territory risk by kicking well from the back.
Finding touch frequently slows down the game and puts the ball back in a set piece situation where the Lions can compete.
The team needs to exit well, compete at every set piece, attack the left edge in the middle third and play to their strong lineout maul when given penalties. With a bit of luck (and some rain), the Lions can keep this contest close. If it is a one-score game heading into the final 10, anything can happen.
The Lions will be hoping that ‘third time lucky’ rings true.
Comments on RugbyPass
Dear Ben Smith you are a genius! God please become the next all blacks coach that can take on the mighty BOKS. Your rugby acumen is second to none - imagine your dads sperm bounced as unfortunately as that oval ball did….we would not be blessed with your presence. Just as the all blacks were missing a man you too are missing a chromosome for 80% of your life, so your insights are not only profound but ring true from your own experiences. Just as the TMO interfered with citing an illegal pass I am sure your local authorities interfere with your illegal passes you make on women - How dare they!!! God forbid that rugby be officiated fairly. You are the right man for the job. Next all blacks coach is here ladies and gentlemen Miss Ben Smith (He/She/They/IT)
218 Go to commentsHuge engine this guy and great to see him back ..The amount of clean outs he does at the ruck are ridiculous !!
3 Go to commentsThe level of desperation in this article is just embarrassing.
218 Go to commentsSome silly trolling in the comments.
9 Go to commentsEverywhere you turn some irish journo is advocating Ireland as the greatest, reasoning that the wc is a 4 year cycle event so, they say wc doesn’t matter it’s the rugby in between that should account for the accolade. If there was no wc then some substance could be gained, however in my opinion the moment that defined Ireland’s fate against the abs was 37 phases of repeated head bashing against a brick wall. If a change in strategy or a tinker with the game plan was executed then things could've been vastly different. And to point a finger the let down was in the hands of the number 10.
44 Go to commentsI have heard it asked if RA is essentially one of the part owners and I suppose therefor should be on the other side of these two parties. If they purchased the rebels and guaranteed them, and are responsible enough they incur Rebels penalties, where is this line drawn? Seems rough to have to pay a penalty for something were your involvement sees you on the side of the conned party, the creditors. If the Rebels directors themselves have given the club their money, 6mil worth right, why aren’t they also listed as sitting with RA and the Tax office? And the legal threat was either way, new Rebels or defunct, I can’t see how RA assume the threat was less likely enough to warrant comment about it in this article. Surely RA ignore that and only worry about whether they can defend it or not, which they have reported as being comfortable with. So in effect wouldn’t it be more accurate to say there is no further legal threat (or worry) in denying the deal. Unless the directors have reneged on that. > Returns of a Japanese team or even Argentinean side, the Jaguares, were said to be on the cards, as were the ideas of standing up brand new teams in Hawaii or even Los Angeles – crazy ideas that seemingly forgot the time zone issues often cited as a turn-off for viewers when the competition contained teams from South Africa. Those timezones are great for SR and are what will probably be needed to unlock its future (cant see it remaining without _atleast _help from Aus), day games here are night games on the West Coast of america, were potential viewers triple, win win. With one of the best and easiest ways to unlock that being to play games or a host a team there. Less good the further across Aus you get though. Jaguares wouldn’t be the same Jaguares, but I still would think it’s better having them than keeping the Rebels. The other options aren’t really realistic 25’ options, no. From reading this authors last article I think if the new board can get the investment they seem to be confident in, you keeping them simply for the amount of money they’ll be investing in the game. Then ditch them later if they’re not good enough without such a high budget. Use them to get Jaguares reintergration stronger, with more key players on board, and have success drive success.
15 Go to commentsYeah, and ours is waaay bigger than yours. Just as you's get a semi…oh hold on that never happens
44 Go to commentsLove watching
1 Go to commentsThe Melbourne Rebels lineout is a complete disaster so not surprisingly a kiwi coach of the Wallabies hires the worst lineout coach in the country and a foreigner to boot. No surprises whatsoever here…….
3 Go to commentsThank your for wasting 2 minutes of my life Daniel. There is a useful message in there somewhere but your delivery sucks.
7 Go to commentsBen Smith, you are cry baby
218 Go to commentsSux that homophobia is still a thing though. I wonder how many players who could have become legends never kept playing rugby because they felt unwelcome.
7 Go to commentsCrazy he’s only 28, feel like he’s been around forever - don’t mind the move, safe pair of hands and creates depth in a thin position for ABs. Hopefully aides Kemara’s growth also without thrusting too much responsibility on him
1 Go to commentsMen should show strength and be mean, but they should be able to show emotion to those close yo them in certain times, birth of your child, death of family, proud moment. This article is stupid
7 Go to commentsWhat a weak article…absolute drivel and clickbait, well done. Will stick to rugby365 thanks
7 Go to commentsHonest, discipline, humility… Priceless.
2 Go to commentsSo many excuses. No mention of the SA number 2 being taken out illegally in the 2nd minute. That act of foul play had a massive impact on the SA game. Face it, NZ play pretty dirty very regularly, and it’s only since 2016 they’ve been held to higher officiating standards via stricter officiating and TMO reviews. They deserved to have a man down. Sorry. Fix the yellow and red cards and NZ will win more RWCs. Plus, there WAS a knock on invalidating the one try, so it was NOT a try. Period. Here’s a Kleenex…
218 Go to commentsOverheard conversation between NZ and SA rugby fans everywhere: We’re the greatest! No! we’re the greatest! We’re the greatest! No we’re the greatest! Ireland are arrogant! True but they beat you! We’re the greatest! No! we’re the greatest! Etc. etc, etc.
44 Go to commentsTypical crap Aussie weather
11 Go to comments“If they’d have beaten England, I still feel we would have been talking ‘is this the best team ever,’ ‘is this the best team that’s ever played in the Six Nations'” he said. “I still think they’re not quite that good. I actually don’t think they’re that good.” So Trimble is saying he doesn’t think this is the best 6N team of all time. He is silent on if it is the best Irish team of all time. Can’t disagree with him. Just another misrepresentative clickbait headline from the guys at RP.
44 Go to comments