Joe Schmidt sets deadline on Wallabies coaching decision

“He then won 3 leagues on the bounce later in his career”

He won 3 leagues on the bounce at the start of his career too - (2009, 2010, 2011).

If we’re judging him by champions league wins, he peaked in his late 30s, early 40s. If we’re judging him by domestic titles he’s stayed pretty consistent over his career. If we’re judging him by overall win rate he peaked at Bayern, and was better at Barcelona than at City. So no, he hasn’t gotten better by every measure.

“You mentioned coaches were older around the mid-2010’s compared to the mid-2000’s. Robson was well above the average age you’ve given for those periods even in the 90’s when in his pomp.”

Robson was 63-64 when he was at Barcelona, so he wasn’t very old. But yeah, he was slightly above the average age of 60 I gave for the top 4 premier league coaches in 2015, and quite a bit above the averages for 2005 and 2025.

“Also, comparing coaches - and their experiences, achievements - at different ages is unstable. It’s not a valid way to compare and tends to torpedo your own logic when you do compare them on equal terms. I can see why you don’t like doing it.”

Well my logic certainly hasn’t been torpedoed. Currently the most successful premier league coaches right now are younger than they were ten years ago. You can throw all the nuance at it that you want, but that fact won’t change. It’s not even clear what comparing managers “on equal terms” would even mean, or why it would be relevant to anything I’ve said.

“You still haven’t answered why Kiss could be a risker appointment?”

Because I’ve been talking to you about football managers. If you want to change the subject then great - I care a lot more about rugby than I do football.

But wrt Kiss, I don’t agree that 25 years experience is actually that useful, given what a different sport rugby was 25 years ago. Obviously in theory more experience can never be a bad thing, but I think 10 years of coaching experience is actually more than enough these days. Erasmus had been a coach for 13 years when he got the SA top job. Andy Farrell had been a coach for 9 when he got the Ireland job. I don’t think anyone would say that either of them were lacking in experience.

Now - what about coaches who do have 25+ years experience? The clearest example of that would be Eddie Jones, who started coaching 31 years ago. He did pretty well everywhere he worked until around 2021 (when he was 61), when results with England hit a sharp decline. He similarly oversaw a terrible run with Australia, and currently isn’t doing a great job with Japan.

Another example is Warren Gatland, who also started coaching full-time 31 years ago, after 5 years as a player-coach. Gatland did pretty well everywhere he went until 2020 (when he was 56), when he did a relatively poor job with the Chiefs, before doing a pretty poor job with the Lions, and then overseeing a genuine disaster with Wales. There are very few other examples, as most coaches retire or step back into lesser roles when they enter their 60s. Mick Byrne actually has 34 years experience in coaching (but only 23 years coaching in rugby) and at 66 he’s the oldest coach of a top 10 side, and he’s actually doing really well. He goes to show that you can continue to be a good coach well into your 60s, but he seems like an outlier.

So the point is - right now, Les Kiss looks like a pretty reliable option, but 5 years ago so did Eddie Jones and Warren Gatland before they went on to prove that coaches often decline as they get older. If Australia want Kiss as a short term appointment to take over after Schmidt leaves in the summer, I don’t think that would be a terrible idea - but NB wanted Kiss as a long term appointment starting in 2027! That’s a massive risk, given the chance that his aptitude will begin to decline.

Its kind of analagous to how players decline. We know (for example) that a fly-half can still be world class at 38, but we also know that most fly-halves peak in their mid-to-late 20s, so it is generally considered a risk to build your game plan around someone much older than that.

You mentioned coaches were older around the mid-2010’s compared to the mid-2000’s. Robson was well above the average age you’ve given for those periods even in the 90’s when in his pomp. Also, comparing coaches - and their experiences, achievements - at different ages is unstable. It’s not a valid way to compare and tends to torpedo your own logic when you do compare them on equal terms. I can see why you don’t like doing it.

You still haven’t answered why Kiss could be a risker appointment? With his near 25 years coaching at club, provincial, junior and senior test level? His highly decorated background in Rugby League and the obvious fit that would have for the Aussie national job. You speak plenty but actually say so very little.

Yes, to be fair you don’t seem quite as unstable on this thread as you do on the other!

You’re right that he has kept abreast of trends in the game - arguably he has actually continued to predict trends ahead of them happening - but there’s more to coaching than just that. I wonder if he’d be best off in an analysis or consultancy role?

But yeah, you are right that the hiring boards will learn the lessons - I just think the lesson they’ll learn from the last few years of test rugby is that it is better to appoint younger managers! Obviously if Jones has a resurgence with Japan, and Mick Byrne continues to do a great job with Fiji, then people will learn from that - but at the moment that remains a hypothetical.

Obv the ppl who appoint team managers/head coaches are teh ones who will learn the lessons, if they don’t know them already.

I’m not remotely upset. I’ve even avoided the passive aggression of using emoji’s, like a real healthy adult.

I’ve no problem with you having an opinion! Just not sure why you bothered debating that opinion when you’re so upset by me responding to what you said.

“You’ve missed that Mourinho’s early start in football was as a translator for Bobby Robson (ironically a much older manager at the time!).”

I was actually aware of that. I didn’t mention it because it wasn’t relevant to the fact that Mourinho - aged 52 - had more experience than Arteta does at 43. It also isn’t ironic that Bobby Robson was a much older manager at the time - it actually confirms by point that a lot of the top football managers used to be older than they are today.

“You suggested that Les Kiss would not be suited to an international coaching role because of his age profile…that seemed to relate to rugby”

That did relate to rugby. Let me walk you through the thread…

NB suggested that Les Kiss should become Australia head coach in 2027.

I said: “Given the drop off so many top coaches seem to experience as they get older (e.g. Jones, Gatland) Kiss could be a riskier appointment than you’d think!”

NB said: “Drawing a parallel with the NFL and NBA, plenty of coaches stay well into their 70’s”

I said: “Not all sports are going the same way though” then gave the example of football.

The example of football was introduced in order to make the point that the age profile of managers is not the same in every sport. If you had read the thread you were replying to you would know this!

Personally my opinion is that Earl is a better 7 than an 8. I’ve quite literally no idea why that seems to be such a problem for you.

You’ve missed that Mourinho’s early start in football was as a translator for Bobby Robson (ironically a much older manager at the time!). He started in 2000 aged 37 as an assistant. Arteta started at 37 as a paid up manager. Rather than being a translator, he was Peps understudy. His tutelage belied his young age and gave him a few years under his belt before moving in to management.

You suggested that Les Kiss would not be suited to an international coaching role because of his age profile…that seemed to relate to rugby no matter how unsubstantiated a point it is.