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'I know this will send shivers down the spines of their fans'
By Chris Jones
Andy Nicol is adamant Scotland can cause a Rugby World Cup upset despite the hammer blow of losing Stuart Hogg, their talismanic full back, and having to face reigning champions South Africa and Ireland, ranked World No1, in the tournament’s Pool of Death.
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Nicol also has a chilling warning for hosts France and Irish fans who believe the Grand Slam champions will finally deliver at a World Cup saying: “I know this will send shivers down the spines of their fans, but given the draw, France and Ireland could conceivably go out in the quarter-finals. Nothing much has to go wrong for the two teams I see as favourites to not make the last four which would be remarkable.
“We know the draw won’t be made like this again and with Scotland ranked No5 now means their Pool has three teams in the top five. It makes no sense – nor does having five of the world’s top six teams in the same half of the draw.”
Scotland have lost eight in a row against Ireland and the last seven meetings with South Africa so, is it worth Scotland turning up? Not surprisingly, Nicol, a proud Scot, responds with an emphatic “yes” pointing to his country’s recent improvement and ability to not only run the world’s best close against France and New Zealand but register wins over England, Wales and Argentina.
However, Nicol is keenly aware of the void created by 31-year-old Hogg’s injury enforced recent retirement. Former captain Hogg won 100 caps to highlight the depth of rugby knowledge the Scots have to replace as they attempt to defy the odds and somehow make the knock out stages from Pool B which also includes a Tonga side boosted by recent arrivals Israel Folau, Charles Piutau and Malakai Fekitoa and minnows Romania.
Nicol told RugbyPass: “We have a tough group but we have a chance – although it is only a chance. You can say it’s a terrible draw for Scotland but I would argue it’s not a great one for Ireland and South Africa because they must be looking at their game with Scotland knowing we have the ability to beat someone at some point. There will be shocks at this World Cup.
“In the 2019 Cup in Japan there was real expectation that Scotland would get out of their pool I am not sure there is the same expectation this time. Scotland have a brutal draw and there is also Tonga with the new guys they have brought into their squad.
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“We have shown that in recent years and we should have beaten the All Blacks and Wallabies. In the Six Nations we beat England, Wales and Italy and in the Ireland and France games we competed but it showed we were just below that level. If Scotland are to get out of their pool they have to ensure they take those key chances that come along.
“Of course, losing Hoggy is a blow because of the experience he has and the confidence he brings to the whole group. In the early stages of his career, Hoggy was the only attacking player Scotland had and now we are multi-talented with lots of back line threats. It is a real shame he won’t be going out on the platform he deserves and in any conversation about the best Scotland players of all time he is right up there.
“The stats show Hoggy has it all: Heineken Cup, Premiership and Pro 12 winner, Lions tours, 100 caps and the Scotland try scoring record. More importantly for me, he was one of the few players Scotland had who, when he got the ball, their was a genuine sense of excitement.”
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Nicol, who won 23 caps for Scotland, is backing Blair Kinghorn to step out of the massive shadow cast by the incomparable Hogg. Finding the right role for Kinghorn has been a recurring debate in Scotland and a hat-trick of tries against Italy in the most recent Six Nations showed his attacking class.
He said: “If Hoggy was still there you would still have that debate about is Blair a 10 or a 15. Now that Hoggy has gone he is a 15 and I really like Blair and believe that given the chance he can nail the position down. I also like Ollie Smith and so it’s not a case of Blair getting the position for the next fives years and there is a real competition.
“Blair is so athletic and quick and I hear he is pulling up trees in training and his acceleration off the mark is something you need at full back. There was always a shadow cast by Hoggy and now it has gone, Blair can excel.”
Nicol’s own rugby career with Bath and Glasgow included being drafted onto the Lions bench for the deciding test of the 2001 tour to Australia while he was on holiday in the country to replace the injured Austin Healey. Looking back, Nicol admits he was mightily relieved not to take the pitch having enjoyed a lively R&R in Australia that did not include training for test rugby.
He explained: “If I had got on after five minutes I would have had to be subbed off – guaranteed. I wouldn’t have been able to last and that would have ended my career. As much as people knew the unusual circumstances, my credibility would have been shot.”
Nicol will be at the World Cup without his boots and is not available for any emergency call up by Scotland. Instead he is going to be joining fans on a series of eye catching Rugby World Cup Infinity Sports Travel cruises taking in destinations such as Ibiza and Corsica returning in time to be at the matches being staged in the South of France.
“It is fantastic to bring rugby fans together:” added Nicol. ”We will all be on one ship and it will be a rugby extravaganza and a lot of fun. I am really looking forward to the tournament and France are going to deliver a really great World Cup. To be able to visit hubs like Marseille and see so many different teams will be special and I am so excited.
“The global game has improved and at this World Cup there is real quality in the fourth ranked teams in the pools like Tonga, Georgia and Samoa and the gap is narrowing.
“Given the draw England have got then they are on course for a semi-final place because its been remarkably kind to Steve Borthwick and his squad. If they get to that stage they can beat anyone on their day as they showed against New Zealand in 2019 and this is basically the rehashed squad from that tournament.
“I really hope at this World Cup we will be talking about the rugby not the impact of red and yellow cards and teams don’t opt to go into their shells and try not to lose.”
Join Andy on an exclusive Rugby World Cup cruise for Scotland v Tonga from £450pp with Infinity Sports Travel. www.
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Will be great if SA and Scotland get out the pool as the Irish fans are getting a bit much these days.
Upsets are to be expected. What is interesting to be seen is whether the NH teams can play two or more big games in a row this World Cup. Not a strength up to now.
In its 36 year history, only once has a NH team failed to make the last four of a Rugby World Cup - that was eight years ago; Statistically speaking NH sides have made up the majority of semi-finalists - teams have to play at least two, if not more big games in a row to reach this stage of the tournament. This is not to say that South Africa, New Zealand and Australia haven't enjoyed more success at the tournament in terms of winning it, but it's simply not accurate to state that NH teams have under-performed at the tournament; until relatively recently the void between NH and SH was so great that you could argue that they have punched above their weight.
This said, I really can't see anyone coming close to the quality of this South African side this year. They have the same backbone as the team that was derided for playing intelligent rugby and destroying England in the final and now seem to be coming into this tournament with a back line that ticks, six world class back three players, a proper backup to Handre Pollard at ten and the class of Am in the center with Cheslin Kolbe having to fight for his place on the wing.
Hogg or no Hogg, Scotland do not have the depth in the front row, second row, fly half or fullback to get beyond their pool.
La Rochelle showed that the predominantly international Leinster team can be beaten if they are bullied up front and that will play straight into the hands of this South Africa team who will relish the thought of it.
France is the only other team in the tournament capable of matching the Springboks but I'm not sure they have the nous to navigate a tricky route to the final.