A fisherman always spots another fisherman from afar. Giants in any field of human endeavour usually share the same competitive instincts and goals, but they rarely occupy the same space. There may be an unspoken recognition of the same traits and ambitions, an imperceptible tip of the hat from one bank to the other, but the river moves on swiftly and the focus returns, inevitably, to the float bobbing on the water. The next catch.
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The two biggest pescadores of either era in rugby, amateur or professional, have been locked in silent combat for 105 years, with the just the occasional silent nod to the accomplishments of the other punctuating the torrential surge of the greatest rivalry. There have been seven prize World Cup catches between the two, with the last tussle between the twin titans decided by one single point in Paris.
The constant jostling for position explodes when the two are pulled together in the same room. After the second Test in Cape Town, which the Springboks won by 33-26 to level up the series at one match apiece, the topic of conversation between Dave Rennie and Rassie Erasmus turned to the vexed question of scrum perception.
The man christened ‘Dingo Dave’ during his time with the Wallabies began by picking at the sore spot of the set-piece at the post-match press conference.
“The scrums were better tonight,” Rennie said. “I think [referee] Angus [Gardner] was pretty strong around setting a mark and trying to keep the hookers in the same spacing.
“If the Springboks moved across further left, then he stopped them. We’ll give them a bit of feedback around that.
“It’s still a bit of an issue for us because they’re able to walk around and go straight through our tight-head. So, there’ll be a couple of little technical things that we’ll share again.
“But I thought in the end, both teams were able to play off the scrums so I think Angus did a reasonable job there.”
It was not the first time such observations have been made on tour, and Rennie must have known he was invading the Springboks’ primary ‘honey hole’ at the scrum. He duly received a reprimand from Erasmus.
“It’s the first time in history people are talking about us walking around. Why would we all of a sudden walk around?
“Don’t come with that nonsense, and say we’re walking around and try and put those things out in the media.
“If the referees get caught up by that, then it obviously was a plan to get that message out, and we don’t want to stay quiet and just say ‘oh yeah, you’re right, we’re walking around’. We’re not f***ing walking around. We’re scrumming through.”
The scrum had obviously been targeted, and Gardner paid particularly forensic attention to the placement of the hooker’s ‘brake foot’ in the course of it. A climax of tedium arrived in the 45th minute, when a Springbok scrum was reset on no fewer than four occasions. “No more games with the feet!” exclaimed the Aussie official before awarding the All Blacks a free-kick after two whole minutes of dead time. Even the scrum aficionados in the Cape Town crowd were bored silly by the end, and the only surprise was they did not break into an impromptu chorus of ‘Sweet Caroline’ to entertain themselves.
A cruel and unusual balance has been established between the two greatest rivals halfway through the series. The Springboks have confirmed their superiority at the set-piece and in the aerial battle.
The Springbok lineout enjoys a clear 15% advantage in own-throw efficiency, and Eben Etzebeth won two crucial steals deep in the South African red zone with the All Blacks hot on attack.
South Africa has been able to rely on the maul as a weapon in attack where New Zealand have not. The Boks improved their red zone conversion rate from 0.9 points per entry in Joburg to 4.8 points per entry in Cape Town, and they have more attacking strings to their bow when play enters the opposition 22.
Big Ethan Hooker augmented a small but clear superiority in the contestable kicking game, with the hosts picking up 58% of the ball up for grabs in the air.
The South African scrum has been superior when the battle is Ox Nche, Malcolm Marx and Wilco Louw versus Ethan de Groot or George Bower, Codie Taylor and Tyrel Lomax, but the complexion at set-piece turns on a dime when the benches empty from 50 minutes onwards. The two All Black front rows in the last half hour have been very steady, edging the penalty count 1-0 and winning a stream of usable ball in that period. Hard as they hammered, even the heavy brigade of Nche, Marx and Louw made no dent in Asafo Aumua and friends at the DHL Stadium.
As long South Africa can keep the ball close to the set-pieces of scrum, lineout, maul and contestable kicks, they are in control and win the bulk of penalties awarded. A wholly different set of stats illustrate the areas of New Zealand superiority.
The All Blacks have won the line-breaking and try-scoring battle in both games so far, scoring nine tries to four and converting 50% of their opportunities from line-breaks compared to 33% by South Africa.
New Zealand do not have to wait to enter the opposing 22 in order to seize the attacking moment, having converted almost half of their tries from situations outside the opposing 22. Despite some sporadic stirrings and signs of life in Cape Town, a regrip of ‘the Cake Tin template’ is still proving problematic for Erasmus’ charges.
The All Blacks enjoy a clear superiority in the last 20-30 minutes as the benches empty. ‘The Bomb Squad’ has been defused thus far and the late swapping of front rows in Cape Town did not improve the situation. The Bokke have also conceded three yellow cards in the final quarter.
The Springbok tackle completion rate has fallen by 6% from their Nations Championship performance level. The critical contest between Kiwi post-break efficiency and Bok scramble defence in the second and third tier of defence may well decide the fate of the series as a whole.
The fundamental clash between a fluid offloading, defender-duping All Black attack and a bruising, blitzing Springbok defence represents the Gordian knot of the series. Ever since the first whistle, the shadow of current Leinster head coach Jacques Nienaber’s defensive style has bestrode the stage like Banquo’s ghost. The Springboks have jumped back in time to Nienaber’s full metal jacket blitz, and abandoned Munsterman Jerry Flannery’s more selective, watchful structure in the process.
Nothing describes the exquisite equilibrium of the series better than the contest between New Zealand’s new ‘Irish’ attack and South Africa’s ‘Leinster’ styled defence! In Cape Town, the All Blacks tended to convert heavily in phases one-four, while the balance tilted towards South African turnover after phase number five.
Two early sequences established the Kiwi threat to the Bokke scramble defence after the initial rush had been broken.
— William Bishop (@RPvids1994) August 30, 2026
— William Bishop (@RPvids1994) August 30, 2026
The first idea is to pull South Africa number 13 Jesse Kriel upfield on the blitz, and the pass from Jordie Barrett beats the man in both cases. But that is only half of the story. The other half is the All Blacks’ ability to beat the scramble after Kriel has been hooked.
In the first clip Damian McKenzie is able to check back inside into huge gap developing between two loose forwards [Pieter-Steph du Toit and Siya Kolisi] and the tight five inside them; in the second Will Jordan outpaces Kriel and his centre partner Damian de Allende in cover down the right.
The pièce de résistance occurred 15 minutes from the final whistle.
— William Bishop (@RPvids1994) August 30, 2026
It is the short pass in midfield to lock Fabian Holland which drags Kriel towards the ball and leaves him a couple of steps short of lassoing Chiefs wing Leroy Carter down the left sideline.
Th attack-defence balance shifted when the All Blacks passed beyond the five-phase attacking threshold, with the odds shifting in favour of the home defence.
— William Bishop (@RPvids1994) August 30, 2026
— William Bishop (@RPvids1994) August 30, 2026
Although Kriel is beaten by Barrett’s bridge-pass in the first clip, he swiftly gets back on terms, and as the phases mount. the Springboks get ever closer to turnover on the deck. In the second example, Barrett’s pass again bests the Kriel blitz, but scramble help is at hand in the shape of André Esterhuizen, Erasmus’ hybrid back-row/centre who is one of the best jackals in the game. Esterhuizen duly wins the turnover and South Africa win all the marbles.
Let the fisherman who invades another man’s lunker hole beware. Rassie has his signs posted all around the media: ‘the scrum is ours, the lineout is ours, the maul is ours. This is our house’. But as they always tend to do on their tours of the Republic, the All Blacks are asking all the questions that matter. ‘Can you go try for try with us? Can you beat us in the transitions of play, or in the final quarter of the game?’ The contest is achingly close halfway through the series, and New Zealand are in with a shot. The contemporary ‘Cod-father’ of international rugby is under pressure, and he has two games to close the reel deal!
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Before the tour Rassie described his version of whats beautiful in rugby, scrumming, lineouts, mauls, contestables. He spoke about winning rugby and how he beleives the formula wont change come a world cup final. Kick your goals, score points, have a staunch set piece and you will win tight games. NZ have spoken ad nauseum about a faster game, beautiful rugby is tries and free flowing running rugby that revolves around skill.
What this tour has exposed is that NZ skill levels are as high as ever and its that skill and ability to run evolving attack patterns which Mike Blair is pushing can strike this rush defence from anywhere if they can get beyond the rush. Their speed out wide is stunning and Jordan beats defenders for fun. Their traditional strengths are back and they have added a layer to it with their phase play and ruck building.
The Boks meanwhile have shown they are better off playing their traditional game relying on set piece, contestables and brutality in the 22. When they try to play beyond the one out runners, build tons of rucks or when they get more ball than the opposition they are just nowhere near as effective and their skills let them down as they turnover the ball more frequently. In Cape Town they returned to their strengths and won. Whats clear is that despite Tony Browns added input the Springboks have not truly developed into the all court magicians we imagined them to be. They are still sorely lacking in terms of their skills and attacking IQ but they are damn good at the set piece and the power game and when they pair that with quick play they are deadlly.
Both sides have talked dirt about eachother in the media to get an edge, both sides are engaged in philosophical debates to leverage favour. The trash talk has added to the malaise around the tour and given it an extra layer of intrigue. Both sides you can argue are on the right track, both sides have reverted to type and every weekend is like a world cup final. Whose going to win? damned if I know. What this tour has shown so far is that this is the greatest rivarly and that much is indisputable.
Nick, I really enjoyed reading this. There’s a lot here to think about, and I have to admit some of what you’ve highlighted makes me a little nervous!
I have huge respect for the All Blacks. You can never write them off, especially when they start finding space and playing with that freedom. They are asking questions of the Boks that absolutely need answering, particularly in the last 20 minutes and when the game opens up.
But I also think that’s what makes this rivalry so special. The Boks are asking their own questions. Can New Zealand live with the physicality? Can they handle the scrum, the lineout, the maul and the pressure that comes with playing against South Africa for 80 minutes?
And honestly, I don't think either team has completely figured the other one out yet.
I’m probably guilty of looking at things through green-and-gold glasses, but I still believe there is something incredibly special about this South African team. They don't always have to look pretty. They don't always dominate every statistic. But they have this unbelievable ability to find a way when the pressure is at its highest.
That’s what gives me hope.
The All Blacks have definitely shown they can hurt us. There’s no denying that. But I also don't think the Boks have shown everything they are capable of yet.
So yes, Nick, the All Blacks are asking all the questions that matter.
But I’m quietly confident Rassie and the boys are working on the answers.
And if I’m honest… I wouldn’t want it any other way.
There’s nothing quite like South Africa vs New Zealand when both teams know exactly what is at stake.
Respect to the All Blacks. But my heart is still firmly behind the Boks.
Bring it on.
Probably if this series was played around 20-30 years ago the Boks would be winning it quite comfortably. Set-piece superiority counted for more then and there were far more penalties awarded.
The intriguing aspect with the game as it is played now is that you don’t need set-piece superiority to win big games. You do ofc need a very efficent set-piece, but is far more possible now to beat opponents without overpowering them.
And therein lies the fascination of this series. The ABs still won’t be as good as the Boks at lineout or scrum before the end of the four games, but if they can get close enough to them their other virtues may weigh more heavily in the balance.
Many more changes in personnel to come, methinks.
Shakesperian commentary!
Bit of fun with the pun Unk.
This appeared in my feed - what do you think Nick - is it relevant?
https://www.youtube.com/shorts/IAwz5M63_OE
Is he any relation G? 🤣
I see Deon Fourie has been named as replacement/starting hooker again for this weekend. I’ll accept his lineout throwing was better than the last time I saw him throwing into a lineout (which was the World Cup Final) but if Rassie expects his team to gain any scrum ascendancy with Fourie playing hooker, he’s mistaken, especially as Jan Hendrik Wessels can play loosehead and hooker.
That video you’ve posted comes from a channel called ‘Rassie’s Voice’, surely Rassie himself isn’t behind that video.
As a general observation, I think NZ were less composed and less efficient than in Eden park. SA needed them to be. Jacobson’s penalty concession 3/4 through the match when ABs were fighting back and in a central position on the SA 22 arguably cost them the match. They conceded a 3 pointer within 120s.
They also were forcing things. The opportunities were always going to come. Their impatience got in the way of some of those opportunities.
I think Peter Lakai has to start somewhere EE, whether it’s 7 instead of Jacobson or 6 instead of Parker. Far too good a player to leave out.