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History suggests Leicester will have the edge over Leinster
EPCR statistics show that the home side’s in this weekend’s Heineken Champions Cup quarter-finals will enjoy a significant advantage over their visitors.
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According to the organisers, of the 100 tournament quarter-final matches to date, 74 per cent have been won by the home club.
It may seem obvious, but the statistic might be why Leinster were so irate at being railroaded into a 28 – 0 loss to Montpellier earlier in the competition, a result that fated the Irish giants to an away quarter-final despite winning every game they played in Europe this season.
They face the in-form Leicester Tigers, this season’s leading side in the Gallagher Premiership, on Saturday. The two sides will be going head-to-head for the fifth time in the knockout stage of the tournament when they clash at Mattioli Woods Welford Road.
It’s currently 2-2 including the 2009 final won by Leinster at BT Murrayfield.
Neither side will lack firepower out wide. Tigers’ will be unleashing the evergreen Chris Ashton, who just this weekend became the Gallagher Premiership’s record try scorer, adding three tries to the record he shared with Tom Varndell.
Leinster, for their part, have their own ballistic missile in the shape of James Lowe, who is the leading try-scorer in this season’s Heineken Champions Cup, with eight tries from four matches.
Considering how well-matched these sides have traditionally been and the fact both are in rare form in their respective leagues, home advantage could be enough to tip the balance in Leicester’s favour.
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Whatever about the new tournament structure this season, it’s certainly thrown up sides’ that can boast vast European pedigrees. There’s a total of 18 European titles between the quarter-finalists. Four clubs – Stade Toulousain (5), Leinster Rugby (4), Leicester Tigers (2) and Munster Rugby (2) – are former tournament winners.
When Munster and Stade Toulousain clash at the Aviva Stadium on Saturday, both clubs will be making a record 19th appearance at the quarter-final stage of the tournament. Munster captain, Peter O’Mahony, has registered the most turnovers with 13 from his five matches.
Munster and Toulouse have met six times in the knockout stage to date – including the famous 2008 final – with Munster ahead 4-2. Munster were winners in 2014 and 2017 at the quarter-final stage, however, Stade Toulousain triumphed 40-33 in the Round of 16 at Thomond Park last season on their way to lifting the trophy.
Sale Sharks are maybe the fish most out of water in the quarters. Alex Sanderson’s side, who face Racing 92 on Sunday, will be looking for a first quarter-final success in their history having lost to Biarritz Olympique in 2006, and to Stade Rochelais last season.
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Montpellier Hérault Rugby are also a little light in European knockout experience. The last time they reached the last eight was 2013.
In fact the matches between Stade Rochelais and Montpellier, and Racing 92 and Sale Sharks, will be the first time the clubs have met in the Heineken Champions Cup.
In the Challenge Cup, the quarter-finalists have 11 European titles between them. Gloucester Rugby (2) and Wasps (1) are former tournament winners, while Edinburgh Rugby, London Irish and RC Toulon have been losing finalists.
Toulon and Saracens are contenders to join the elite group of four clubs – Bath Rugby, Leinster Rugby, Northampton Saints and Wasps – who won have both the Heineken Champions Cup and the EPCR Challenge Cup.
With the final set for Friday, 27 May in Marseille, the cash rich French side will have extra motivation to make the 70-kilometre journey once again having lost a dramatic 2010 decider to Cardiff Rugby at the Stade Vélodrome in front of a record attendance for an EPCR Challenge Cup final of 48,990.
Edinburgh’s Emiliano Boffelli is this season’s leading scorer with 43 points from four matches, while Santiago Socino of Gloucester is top of the try scoring charts with five also from four matches.
statistics care of the EPCR
Comments on RugbyPass
🤦♂️🤣 who cares who’s the best . All I know is the All Blacks have the star coach but have few star players now …
27 Go to commentsJe suis sûr que Farrell est impatient de jouer avec Lopez et Machenaud et d’être entraîné par Collazo… 🤭
1 Go to commentsAn on field red (aka a full red) in SRP must surely carry a bigger suspension than a red card given by the bunker as that carries a 20 minute team punishment. Had Damon Murphy abdicated his responsibility as a ref and issued both Drua players a yellow, which would have been upgraded to a 20 minute red by the bunker, that would have killed Australia and New Zealand’s push for the 20 minute red to be trialled globally from July this year.
11 Go to commentsEver so often you all post a Danny Care story that isn’t the announcement that he has finally re-signed for one more, victory tour season at Quins and I’m just like, “well you fooled me again!” My absolute favorite player ever, we need to make his final year at the Stoop (and Twickers) official already. I know he supposedly snubbed France but I won’t feel better until he signs.
1 Go to commentslate hit what late hit it wasn’t at all late and can clearly see he was committed before the tackle
1 Go to commentsChristian Lio -Willies 2 try perfomance was a standout. As was captain Scott Barrett. Up front was where the boys won it.They are a great team and players. Fantastic Crusades , you can keep going.
1 Go to commentsI don't know how the locals feel about that? I guess if you call yourselves the Worcester Wasps that might be appease. But really we need more teams in the Premiership in my view so they are not padding it out as they are at the moment. It might curtail so many players going abroad as well
5 Go to commentsNZ 😭😭😭is certainly rivaling England for best whingers cup!😭😭😭 !!!
27 Go to commentsYup. New Zealand won 3 out of 10 world cups played. SA 4 out of 8 attempts 30 Vs 50 per cent.🤔🤔
27 Go to commentsShould've done this years ago. Change Saturday kick off times to around 11am. Up and off and back home before 3pm, limit travel time too. Allows players to actually do something else with their Saturday that's family oriented or being rugby fans they could ‘watch’ pro rugby. Increases crowds etc. How can anyone that enjoys grassroots and pro rugby have to choose between the two on Saturdays?
9 Go to commentsI bet he inspired those supporters just as much.
1 Go to commentsBen Smith Springboks living rent free in his head 😊😂
67 Go to commentsGood to hear he would like to play the game at the highest level, I hadn’t been to sure how much of a motivator that was before now. Sadly he’s probably chosen the rugby club to go to. Try not to worry about all the input about how you should play rugby Joey and just try to emulate what you do on the league field and have fun. You’ll limit your game too much (well not really because he’s a standard athlete like SBW and he’ll still have enough) if you’re trying to make sure you can recycle the ball back etc. On the other hard, you can totally just try and recycle by looking to offload any and everywhere if you’re going to ground 😋
1 Go to commentsThis just proves that theres always a stat and a metric to use to justify your abilities and your success. Ben did it last week by creating an imaginary competition and now you did the same to counter his argument and espouse a new yardstick for success. Why not just use the current one and lets say the Boks have won 4 world cups making them the most successful world cup team. Outside of the world cup the All Blacks are the most successful team winning countless rugby championships and dominating the rankings with high win percentages. Over the last 4 years statistically the Irish are the best having the highest win rate and also having positive records against every tier 1 side. The most successful Northern team in the game has been England with a world cup title and the most six nations titles in history. The AB’s are the most dominant team in history with the highest win rate and 3 world cups. Lets not try to reinvent the wheel. Just be honest about the actual stats and what each team has been good at doing and that will be enough to define their level of success.
27 Go to commentsHow is 7’s played there? I’m surprised 10 or 11 man rugby hasn’t taken off. 7 just doesn’t fit the 15s dynamics (rules n field etc) but these other versions do.
9 Go to commentsPick Swinton at your peril A liability just like JWH from the Roosters Skelton ??? went missing at RWC
14 Go to commentsLike tennis, who have a ranking system, and I believe rugby too, just measure over each period preceding a world cup event who was the longest number one and that would be it. In tennis the number one player frequently is not the grand slam winner. I love and adore the All Blacks since the days of Ian Kirkpatrick when I was a kid in SA. And still do because they are the masters of running rugby and are gentleman on and off the field - in general. And in my opinion they have been the majority of the time the best rugby team in the world.
27 Go to commentsHaving overseas possessions in 2024 is absurd. These Frenchies should have to give the New Caledonians their freedom.
21 Go to commentsBell injured his foot didn’t he? Bring Tupou in he’ll deliver when it counts. Agree mostly but I would switch in the Reds number 8 Harry Wilson for Swinton and move Rob Valentini to 6 instead. Wilson is a clever player who reads the play, you can’t outmuscle the AB’s and Springboks, if you have any chance it’s by playing clever. Same goes for Paisami, he’s a little guy who doesn’t really trouble the likes of De Allende and Jordie Barrett. I’d rather play Carter Gordon at 12 and put Michael Lynagh’s boy at 10. That way you get a BMT type goalkicker at 10 and a playmaker at 12. Anyways, just my two cents as a Bok supporter.
14 Go to commentsThanks Brett, love your articles which are alway pertinent. It’s a difficult topic trying to have a panel adjudicating consistently penalties for red card issues. Many of the mitigating reasons raised are judged subjectively, hence the different outcomes. How to take away subjective opinions?
11 Go to comments