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Former All Black halfback has a 'bold statement' for Noah Hotham

Noah Hotham at All Blacks training. Photo by Phil Walter/Getty Images

New Zealand’s halfback stocks are in a very healthy place as Scott Robertson ignites a new era of All Blacks rugby.

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The team has burned through four No. 9 options already in three contests to begin their international season, and a fifth has been in camp training alongside the squad.

TJ Perenara kicked off the Steinlager Series as the top option and started game one against England, unfortunately sustaining an injury just before halftime.

Next was Finlay Christie, who played out the second half of that Test and started game two before also succumbing to an injury.

Cortez Ratima then stepped up to the plate, earning his All Blacks debut and impressing under the bright lights before he too was helped from the field.

Noah Hotham, a fresh call-up amid the injury woes, was then thrust into the Test arena and once more looked right at home.

With the addition of Cam Roigard waiting in the wings, months away from a return to the field after a Patella injury, this World Cup cycle is shaping up to be a very competitive one at halfback for New Zealand.

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The most recent debutant, Hotham, at the age of just 21, caught the eye of former All Blacks halfback Ant Strachan, who had a glowing analysis of the youngster’s performance in San Diego.

“Well first and foremost he’s electrifying,” Strachan told fellow former All Black Stephen Donald on SENZ’ Run Home.

“He’ll always challenge those inside defenders. Ratima’s similar, as is the likes of (Folau) Fakatava who’s been in there before.

“In the international game now you’ve got to keep the inside defenders honest and he certainly does that because he can explode from the base of the ruck. He scans really, really well, sees the space and goes there.

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“But his core skillset is excellent; passing off both hands, his kicking game is effective too. But also he seems to be growing in terms of his voice, and young players going into the international platform are often quiet but you can see him bossing his forwards around and he needs to be doing that.

“In terms of his overall skillset, he’s certainly shaping up nicely.

“Year one in the All Blacks is always easier, to be honest. Year two will be the real test. At the moment he’s playing really well.”

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With three Tests and three wins under the belt for New Zealand to begin 2024, things are certainly looking positive for the Robertson reign. However, one mustn’t look far to find potential tripping hazards.

Los Pumas are next on the ticket, with a trip to South Africa to face the World Champions soon after.

That later opponent presents one of, if not the greatest challenges in the sport. An arena that will truly test the mettle of the young halfbacks.

“Well, that’s the litmus test, isn’t it?” Strachan said of the South Africa Tests. “With all due respect to England and Fiji, and with Argentina on the doorstep, they haven’t really been tested physically up front.

“When the platform’s not good for a nine, that’s the real test.

“Both Hotham and Ratima are physically big, they’re not small halfbacks, they punch well above their weight. They can probably handle ruck pressure.

“But with young players, it’s probably the mental aspect that will affect them the most. If they throw a couple of rough ones early – and they’ve both got a good skillset as we’ve said – that can tip them up a little bit.

“But Razor’s definitely got these two people in for the future, with Roigard, I’m assuming, in as the third.

“That’s a really nice contrast of a trio. Noah Hoathm potentially has the ability to come across the top of all of them. That’s a bold statement! But, he’s a very smart rugby player too. I like the decisions he makes at the base of that scrum.”

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f
fl 46 minutes ago
Why Les Kiss and Stuart Lancaster can lead Australia to glory

“He won a ECL and a domestic treble at the beginning of his career.”

He won 2 ECLs at the beginning of his career (2009, 2011). Since then he’s won 1 in 15 years.


“He then won 3 leagues on the bounce later in his career”

He won 3 leagues on the bounce at the start of his career too - (2009, 2010, 2011).


If we’re judging him by champions league wins, he peaked in his late 30s, early 40s. If we’re judging him by domestic titles he’s stayed pretty consistent over his career. If we’re judging him by overall win rate he peaked at Bayern, and was better at Barcelona than at City. So no, he hasn’t gotten better by every measure.


“You mentioned coaches were older around the mid-2010’s compared to the mid-2000’s. Robson was well above the average age you’ve given for those periods even in the 90’s when in his pomp.”

Robson was 63-64 when he was at Barcelona, so he wasn’t very old. But yeah, he was slightly above the average age of 60 I gave for the top 4 premier league coaches in 2015, and quite a bit above the averages for 2005 and 2025.


“Also, comparing coaches - and their experiences, achievements - at different ages is unstable. It’s not a valid way to compare and tends to torpedo your own logic when you do compare them on equal terms. I can see why you don’t like doing it.”

Well my logic certainly hasn’t been torpedoed. Currently the most successful premier league coaches right now are younger than they were ten years ago. You can throw all the nuance at it that you want, but that fact won’t change. It’s not even clear what comparing managers “on equal terms” would even mean, or why it would be relevant to anything I’ve said.


“You still haven’t answered why Kiss could be a risker appointment?”

Because I’ve been talking to you about football managers. If you want to change the subject then great - I care a lot more about rugby than I do football.

But wrt Kiss, I don’t agree that 25 years experience is actually that useful, given what a different sport rugby was 25 years ago. Obviously in theory more experience can never be a bad thing, but I think 10 years of coaching experience is actually more than enough these days. Erasmus had been a coach for 13 years when he got the SA top job. Andy Farrell had been a coach for 9 when he got the Ireland job. I don’t think anyone would say that either of them were lacking in experience.


Now - what about coaches who do have 25+ years experience? The clearest example of that would be Eddie Jones, who started coaching 31 years ago. He did pretty well everywhere he worked until around 2021 (when he was 61), when results with England hit a sharp decline. He similarly oversaw a terrible run with Australia, and currently isn’t doing a great job with Japan.

Another example is Warren Gatland, who also started coaching full-time 31 years ago, after 5 years as a player-coach. Gatland did pretty well everywhere he went until 2020 (when he was 56), when he did a relatively poor job with the Chiefs, before doing a pretty poor job with the Lions, and then overseeing a genuine disaster with Wales. There are very few other examples, as most coaches retire or step back into lesser roles when they enter their 60s. Mick Byrne actually has 34 years experience in coaching (but only 23 years coaching in rugby) and at 66 he’s the oldest coach of a top 10 side, and he’s actually doing really well. He goes to show that you can continue to be a good coach well into your 60s, but he seems like an outlier.


So the point is - right now, Les Kiss looks like a pretty reliable option, but 5 years ago so did Eddie Jones and Warren Gatland before they went on to prove that coaches often decline as they get older. If Australia want Kiss as a short term appointment to take over after Schmidt leaves in the summer, I don’t think that would be a terrible idea - but NB wanted Kiss as a long term appointment starting in 2027! That’s a massive risk, given the chance that his aptitude will begin to decline.


Its kind of analagous to how players decline. We know (for example) that a fly-half can still be world class at 38, but we also know that most fly-halves peak in their mid-to-late 20s, so it is generally considered a risk to build your game plan around someone much older than that.

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AlanCriner 56 minutes ago
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AlanCriner 1 hour ago
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NB 3 hours ago
Why Les Kiss and Stuart Lancaster can lead Australia to glory

https://www.london.edu/think/how-claudio-ranieri-transformed-leicester-city


He jts knew how to use that deep well of knowledge accumulate over many years of management. A true Moneyball story!

168 Go to comments
f
fl 3 hours ago
Why Les Kiss and Stuart Lancaster can lead Australia to glory

“Two comparable achievements 15 years apart (at different clubs in different leagues) represent failure and not continued success for an elite level coach/manager? Not even a hint of consistency? Just gradual, inevitable decline? And all because he is in his sixth decade?”

Why don’t you try reading what I wrote before you start inventing a load of other random things that I didn’t say. I said “Pep hasn’t gotten better with age”. He hasn’t. I don’t think he’s got much worse, and yeah, he’s been fairly consistent over his career and has had more success than almost any other coach. But he hasn’t gotten better.


“You’ve missed that Mourinho’s early start in football was as a translator for Bobby Robson (ironically a much older manager at the time!).”

I was actually aware of that. I didn’t mention it because it wasn’t relevant to the fact that Mourinho - aged 52 - had more experience than Arteta does at 43. It also isn’t ironic that Bobby Robson was a much older manager at the time - it actually confirms by point that a lot of the top football managers used to be older than they are today.


“You suggested that Les Kiss would not be suited to an international coaching role because of his age profile…that seemed to relate to rugby”

That did relate to rugby. Let me walk you through the thread…


NB suggested that Les Kiss should become Australia head coach in 2027.

I said: “Given the drop off so many top coaches seem to experience as they get older (e.g. Jones, Gatland) Kiss could be a riskier appointment than you’d think!”

NB said: “Drawing a parallel with the NFL and NBA, plenty of coaches stay well into their 70’s”

I said: “Not all sports are going the same way though” then gave the example of football.


The example of football was introduced in order to make the point that the age profile of managers is not the same in every sport. If you had read the thread you were replying to you would know this!

168 Go to comments
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