England vs Scotland - Pre-match analysis
It takes a rare weekend of rugby to see the Calcutta Cup overshadowed, but that is the situation England and Scotland will encounter on Saturday, with Wales vs Ireland kicking off a few hours earlier and a title and a Grand Slam on the line for Warren Gatland and his charges.
Should Wales lose and the door remains open for England to potentially wrap up the Guinness Six Nations title at Twickenham, there will no doubt be an extra edge to the game, but regardless, fixtures between these two age-old rivals are never dull affairs.
Scotland, meanwhile, have not won at Twickenham since 1983 and are currently suffering through a significant injury crisis. Their last trip to the home of English rugby saw them succumb to a 61-21 loss, but the visitors on Saturday do currently hold the Cup, having beaten England, 25-13, at Murrayfield last season.
The Coaches
Eddie Jones’ recent history against Scotland has not been a pleasant one, with that loss at Murrayfield last year exacerbated by abuse he received from four Scotland fans following the game. The Australian has not been afraid of tapping into that pool of disappointment for motivation this week, insisting his team are out for revenge, both for the result and for the “taunts” from Scotland’s players.
As for Gregor Townsend, the former Scotland international has a 100% record against England and Jones as a coach, with his sole game against the pair coming last year at Murrayfield, with the 40-point deficit at Twickenham in 2017 occurring a couple of months before his appointment. With Scotland down to the barebones at a number of positions, Townsend will have his work cut out maintaining that record on Saturday evening.
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Watch: Eddie Jones is aiming to settle scores with Scotland this weekend
The Players
Ellis Genge went well for England in his start against Italy and there will be pressure on Moon to respond against Scotland, as both players vie to be the backup to Mako Vunipola. Moon is arguably better equipped for the scrum battle that Nel will be keen to excel in, but won’t offer the ball-carrying option that Genge does. If Moon can tire and negate the impact of Nel, Genge could be poised for a strong cameo from the bench.
Nel will be hoping that any English goals of nullifying him are overly ambitious and that he can help give Scotland a strong set-piece foundation. Alongside Stuart McInally, Nel has bolstered the Scottish set-piece in recent years and the days of them being bullied in the scrum and the lineout, even on the road, are long gone. This looks to be a fascinating contest between two of the better pure scrummagers in the international game.
Advantage: Even
Obviously, there is a significant breakdown battle component to this match-up, with Watson more than capable of disrupting England’s previously stellar ball-security. Wilson will have his work cut out getting from ruck to ruck and playing his role in ensuring that Watson is not given any free shots at stealing ball.
The contest will extend beyond the contact area, though, and both flankers have shown themselves to be dangerous ball-carriers when given the opportunity. How they match up in terms of giving their respective teams front-foot ball and denying their opponents any forward momentum, could well be a decisive factor in the final result.
Advantage: Scotland
Both Farrell and Russell have impressed during the tournament, albeit with Farrell being put into a more conducive scenario to succeed. Away from the Wales game, which was uncharacteristically poor from the Saracens fly-half, Farrell has been instrumental in delivering three bonus point wins for England and his control and kicking game, particularly against Ireland and France, was exceptional.
Arguably, Scotland have asked more of Russell. With their plethora of injuries and eagerness to play from all areas of the pitch, there has been a lot of pressure on Russell’s decision-making and his ability to execute. Sometimes it has worked to the benefit of Scotland, but at other times it has cost them. From his spot at 10 to Townsend’s as coach, Scotland have a live and die by the sword mentality and whilst the odds are stacked against them on Saturday, it is something which could help them spring an upset.
Advantage: England
Tuilagi enjoyed his best game of the championship at 13 last week against Italy, but he shifts back inside to 12 this week, with Henry Slade coming back into the XV at outside centre. Whether he will look to shift with Slade and have the Exeter man step in as a second receiver outside of Farrell remains to be seen, but you know that he will pose a potent carrying threat to the Scottish defensive line, regardless of where he positions himself on the field.
It is a tough task for Johnson, to try and contain Tuilagi, but one of his best hopes will be getting up in the English centre’s face fast and early, and not allowing him to build up any momentum. From an attacking standpoint, Johnson will have enjoyed seeing how narrowly England defended against Italy, but with Tuilagi moved inside and Slade at 13, turning the corner is unlikely to be as easy for Scotland as it was for the Azzurri.
Advantage: England
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Watch: Scotland head coach Gregor Townsend looks ahead to England game
A really intriguing match-up, between two players that punch above their respective weights and heights. They are both quick and agile wings with good footwork, and their work rate, both chasing kicks and looking for extra involvements in the midfield, give them added value beyond their physical attributes.
With England likely to go to a heavy kicking option once again, Graham’s positioning will be under the microscope, whilst May’s ability to chase and compete for the kick will be key to England’s hopes of success. Aerially, there is not too much between them, but May’s added experience could come in handy as he seeks to reaffirm his case for being a regular in the England XV.
Advantage: England
Key Battlegrounds
Breakdown
Only Ireland have carried the ball more than Scotland so far in the Six Nations and for Townsend’s side to have any hope of success at Twickenham, they will need to make sure their ball-security is functioning well. Their proclivity to run the ball from deep and keep it in hand can have a number of positive effects on the pitch, but it will require them to keep Tom Curry quiet.
If England opt to keep people out of the ruck as they did against Italy, then Scotland’s job will be made easier, but given the emphasis Scotland put on stringing together a number of phases, expect England to compete more aggressively there this weekend. Conversely, England’s ball-security has been excellent so far this tournament and Watson will have to work hard to get joy there on Saturday.
Advantage: England
Back three and kicking game
England went to the boot prodigiously against Ireland, France and Wales, before changing tact against Italy. With Scotland missing Stuart Hogg, Blair Kinghorn and Tommy Seymour in the back three, the hosts could well feel like there is an opportunity to exploit space and unfamiliarity among the visitors in the kicking game.
As touched on earlier, Scotland will have to pick their poison, either getting up early in the faces of the English attack and aggressively hoping to deny them momentum, which in turn will create space in behind, or to defend more conservatively and try to keep numbers on their feet in the defensive line. The flip side of this is that both May and Jack Nowell do enjoy coming off their wings looking for work, so if Scotland can force turnovers, there may well be space on the transition.
Advantage: England
Conclusion
There is a scenario whereby Wales secure the Grand Slam in Cardiff just prior to kick-off and England subconsciously lose some of the fire or determination they were taking into the game, and Scotland manage to catch them cold. A couple of early Scottish tries if England lack focus and then Townsend’s side could have the momentum to see the game out from a winning position.
That said, England have shown a habit of starting fast this year and even news that the Six Nations title is beyond them is unlikely to throw them off too much. The pride and importance of the Calcutta Cup should be enough to focus them, irrespective of larger title concerns.
England have form, health and home advantage all on their side and whilst there have been times in the last 36 years where Scotland have come to Twickenham full of confidence and in with a realistic shot at ending their south-west London drought, this doesn’t feel like one. Maybe that makes it even more of a banana skin for England.
England by 17.
Watch: Could Steve Hansen be the next man to take charge of the British and Irish Lions?
Comments on RugbyPass
Though Wilson’s sacking was pretty brutal, it wasn’t just down to that Leinster game; Glasgow had a lot of 2nd half collapses that season, in the URC and Europe, and only just scraped into the playoffs. Franco Smith has definitely been an improvement, some players are delivering far more than they did under Wilson.
1 Go to commentsjesus - that front 5!
1 Go to commentsShould be an absolute cracker of a game! Will be great to see DuPont & Ntamack in tandem once again🔥
1 Go to commentsBest team ever…. To have played? These guys are still pressure chokers. Came nowhere when it counted. What a joke
69 Go to commentsMusk defends anonymous terrorism, fascism, threats against individuals and children etc etc But a Rugby club account….lock ‘em up!!!
1 Go to commentsActually the era defining moment came a few years earlier. February 2002 to be precise, when Michael D Higgins as finance minister at the time introduced his sports persons tax relief bill to the dial. As the politicians of the day stated “It seems to be another daft K Club frolic born in Kildare amongst the well-paid professional jockeys with whom the Minister plays golf” and that the scheme represented “a savage uncaring vision of Ireland and one that should be condemned”. The irfu and Leinster would be nowhere near the position they are in today without this key component of the finances.
2 Go to commentsIt is crystal clear that people who make such threats on line should be tried and imprisoned. Those with responsibility in social media companies who don’t facilitate this should be convicted. In real life, I have free speech to approach someone like Reinach and verbally threaten him. I am risking a conviction or a slap but I could do it. In the old days, If someone anonymously threatened someone by letter the police would ask and use evidence from the postal system. Unlike the Post, social media companies have complete instant and legal access to the content in social media. They make money from the data, billions. Yet, they turn a blind eye to terrorism, Nazi-ism and industrial levels of threats against individuals including their address and childrens schools being published online all from ananoymous accounts not real speech. They claim free speech. The fault is with the perps but also social media companies who think anonymous personas posting death threats constitutes free speech.
2 Go to commentsSo if this ain’t the best Irish team ever then who exactly is? I don’t remember any other Irish team being this good & winning a series in the Land of the Long White Cloud. Yes I may rip them often for 8 X QF RWC exits & twice not even making it to the QF, but they’re a damn good team who many think can only improve, including me!
69 Go to commentsNot a squeek out of Leinster for weeks about this match. So quiet. The first team have been quitely building for this encounter under Nienaber’s direction. All fresh, all highly motivated. They are expecting a season’s best performance from Northhampton. They will match that. They will be fresher and apparently they will have 80,000 out of the 83,000 shouting for them. I do expect Northhampton to turn up big time. Not to be missed. On a tangent it is evident how the loss of a few Premiership teams has in some respect helped other Premiership teams and England. More quality over less teams makes the teams better, which has a knock on effect on England. Not the only factor contributing to England’s rise but one of them.
2 Go to commentsOur very own monster teddy bear Ox😍💪
17 Go to commentsThis is might be the most generalised, entitled, patronising, out-of-pocket cultural indictment on a group of people you’ll ever see on what is supposedly a sports publication. I can only assume the author is weak like a woman or homosexual. I’m feeling an incredible range of emotions but I am not quite sure how to express them. I might go beat up a hockey player - assuming that’s okay with Duane and the boys? 🙂
9 Go to commentsBest thing the Welsh clubs could do is apply to join Gallagher prem surely be more exciting matches for there support than they have now.
2 Go to commentsRugbyPass writers are useless! you guys should get a real job because you all suck at writing about rugby!!!
9 Go to commentslooking forward to RWC2027 …. Boks on mission impossible for the Three-in-a-row, ABs to prove they being on par, France wishing to crown the “DuPont-era”, Ireland knocking on the Semi-Door ….. until then we’ll probably have to deal with Weird Ben’s fantasy-RWC23 (fun fact is, the drivel always creates a flooding of comments) …..
221 Go to commentsBen Smith you really make some good points in this article, the Springboks were not close to perfect and good still beat the All Blacks, imagine if they were as good as they were against France what a hiding the All Blacks would have gotten… maybe another Twickenham drubbing
221 Go to commentsIt is a good argument to keep the Rebels for one more year but also isnt this just opening the door as well for keeping them beyond 2025. If they can create some sort of financial stability in the next year and if their performances lift as they have this season then how would RA even cull them after that? It might be the most cost effective decision at this stage and perhaps many people are guilty of keeping relationships going because of the cost to decouple but then again when does that ever work out well?
29 Go to commentsDear Ben Smith you are a genius! God please become the next all blacks coach that can take on the mighty BOKS. Your rugby acumen is second to none - imagine your dads sperm bounced as unfortunately as that oval ball did….we would not be blessed with your presence. Just as the all blacks were missing a man you too are missing a chromosome for 80% of your life, so your insights are not only profound but ring true from your own experiences. Just as the TMO interfered with citing an illegal pass I am sure your local authorities interfere with your illegal passes you make on women - How dare they!!! God forbid that rugby be officiated fairly. You are the right man for the job. Next all blacks coach is here ladies and gentlemen Miss Ben Smith (He/She/They/IT)
221 Go to commentsHuge engine this guy and great to see him back ..The amount of clean outs he does at the ruck are ridiculous !!
3 Go to commentsThe level of desperation in this article is just embarrassing.
221 Go to commentsSome silly trolling in the comments.
9 Go to comments