STATS: Could climate change ruin the All Blacks?
With the Lions gathering pace in New Zealand, fans at home and down south are observing a trend in their ability to win. All three of their triumphs so far have come under wet conditions.
One of the series’ major talking points has been the clash between styles from the northern and southern hemispheres. How heavily has the winter weather weighed in on the results thus far, and could any trends be affected by a changing climate?
Taking recent games in New Zealand as our sample, we can clearly see trends linking the weather to the style of play. On average, when playing in the rain, the Lions have run an average of 129 metres more than their opponents.
I don't see @lionsofficial beating the All Blacks but if the Tests are wet/slippery & they control the game like tonight it could be close ?
— Cory Jane (@CoryJane1080) June 17, 2017
Less than half of those metres however, have come from backline play. In the most recent game against the Maori All Blacks 43% of metres made were by ball carrying forwards, with another 26% from kick returning, leaving only 31% of attacking metres attributable to ball played across the backline.
This breakdown of attacking statistics is symptomatic of the northern style the Lions are bringing to New Zealand, and has lead to the astonishing territory numbers clocked up in recent games. Warren Gatland’s men have dominated the set piece and used the resulting platform to camp in opposition 22’s.
In theory, this territory limits the ability of southern teams to utilise the speed and flair that has ravaged northern teams in the past. Limited space and a greasy ball put pressure on the the skills advantage southern teams possess. We’ve seen the Lions employ this tactic to good effect thus far, allowing only 5 offloads per game in the wet, versus 11.5 in fairer weather.
So, what if there was something that could change the weather and turn the tide in the favour of a northern hemisphere style of rugby? That’s where global warming comes in. In keeping with New Zealand as our example, we can see a possible change in rugby as well as the climate.
Are we destined for glory???!! @lionsofficial pic.twitter.com/PWBS6K0VxC
— Will Greenwood (@WillGreenwood) June 17, 2017
According to the New Zealand government, current predictions of the effects of global warming see rainfall rising by up to 20% in some areas. If rugby down under got 20% wetter, even the mighty All Blacks would be forced to alter their game to what would currently be considered a more northern style.
In this eventuality, the northern teams would be able to play their own game. Much like the Lions have done. Helped by the rain they’ve been able to limit free play, and when they have over 100 attacking rucks, they win every game. The more rucks we see, the more time the ball spends on the ground, and the less time it can spend in the hands of skillful All Blacks.
These All Blacks could always opt to play their home games at Forsyth Barr Stadium in Dunedin. The indoor pitch never sees rain, temperatures can be adjusted by up to 5 degrees, and the grass is always cut to a 45mm height under foot. A scientifically designed home for free flowing rugby, where we saw 558 metres made by backline running, the most so far in the Lions tour.
This precisely adjusted environment saw the Highlanders down the Lions, and is the only such stadium in the southern hemisphere. Weather-proof stadia are equally as unusual in European rugby, with only the retractable roof of the Principality Stadium in Cardiff providing relief from rain.
Construction for the Forsyth Barr stood at $193,000,000 NZD, with the Principality weighing in at £120,000,000. With rugby continually becoming more and more lucrative business, for a cost, stadia such as these would allow teams to play god with conditions, and adapt them to their own tactics regardless of changes in the weather.
Of course, none of these changes happen overnight, and the All Blacks and all other teams would have plenty of time to adapt and stay ahead, as they always have. With 7 of the 8 names on the World Cup trophy being southern hemisphere teams, their dominance is clearly no accident.
That being said, global warming is set to bring with it conditions we’ve seen can force statistical changes the southern teams wouldn’t otherwise have to make. It could never kill a team, but it could eliminate the effect of one style, and amplify the effect of another. A change in climate would rain on the playing field, and move towards leveling it.
Comments on RugbyPass
There’s a bit of depth there but realistically Australian players have a long way to go to now catch up. The game is moving on fast and Australia are falling behind. Australian sides still don’t priories the breakdown like they should, it’s a non-negotiable if you want to compete on the international stage. That goes for forwards and backs. The Australian team could have a back row that could make a difference but the problem is they don’t have a tight five that can do the business. Tupou is limited in defence, overweight and unfit and the locks are a long way from international standard. Frost is soft and Salakai-Loto is too small so that means they need a Valentini at 8 who has to do the hard graft so limits the effectiveness of the backrow. Schmidt really needs to get a hard working, tough tight 5 if he wants to get this team firing.
3 Go to commentsSorry Morgan you must have been the “go to for a quote” ex player this week. Its rnd 6 and there is plenty of time to cement a starting 15 and finishing 8 so I have no such concerns.
2 Go to commentsGreat read. I wish you had done this article on the ROAR.
2 Go to commentsThe current AB coaching team is basically the Crusaders so it smacks of wanting their familiar leaders around. This is not a good look for the future of the ABs or the younger players in Super working their way up the player ladder. Razor is touted as innovative, forward looking but his early moves look like insecurity and insular, provincial thinking. He is the AB's coach not the Golden Oldies.
10 Go to commentsSimple reason for wanting him back. Robertson wants him as captain. Otherwise he wouldn’t be bothering chasing him. Not enough reason to come back just to mentor.
10 Go to commentsI had not considered this topic like this at all, brilliant read. I had been looking at his record at the Waratahs and thought it odd the Crusaders appointed him, then couple that with all that experience and talent departing and boom. They’ve got some great talent developing though, and in all honesty I don’t think anyone would be over confident taking them on in a playoff match, no matter how poor the first half of their season was. I think they can pull a game out of their ass when it counts.
2 Go to commentsNot a bad list but not Porecki and not Donaldson. Not because they are Tahs, or Ex Tahs, they are just not good enough. Edmed should be ahead. Far more potential. Wilson should be 8 and Valentini 6. Wilson needs to be told by his father and his coach, stop bloody running in to brick wall defence. You’re not playing under the genius Thorn any more. He’s a fantastic angle runner. The young new 8 from the Brumbies looks really good too. The Lonegrans are just too small for international rugby as is Paisami, as is Hamish Stewart at 12. Both great at Super Rugby level. Stewart could have been a great 10 if not for Brad Thorn. Uru should be there and so should Tupou. Tupou just needs good Australian coaching which he hasn’t been getting. I don’t think Schmidt will excite him.
3 Go to commentsIf he wants to come back then he should. He will be a major asset to the younger locks and could easily be played as an impact player off the bench coming on in the last 30. He is fit, strong and capable and has all the experience to make up for any loss in physical prowess. He could also be brought back with a view to coaching within the structures one day. Duane Vermeulen played until he was 37 or 38. He is now a roaming coach within the South African coaching structures. He was valuable in the last world cup and has been a major influence on Jasper Wiese and other young players which has helped and accelerated their development and growth. Whitelock could do the exact same thing for NZ
10 Go to commentsBrett Excellent words… finally someone (other than DC) has noted that Hanigan is very hard and very good at doing what Backrow should do… his performance via the Drua sauna was quite daunting for those on the other side… very high tackle count… carries with good end result… constant threat to make a good 20-25 meters with those long legs… providing his mass effectively to crunching the Drua pack… Finally he is returning to quality form… way to much injury time over the last 2 years… smart-strong-competent in his skills… caught every lineout throw aimed at him and delivered clean pass to whoever was down below… and he worked hard for the whole 80 minutes… Ned has to be in the top 5 for backrow honors… He knows what is required as he has been there before…
20 Go to commentsI think Sam Whitelock should not touch a return with a bargepole. He went out on a high, playing in the RWC Final. He would be coming back into a team that will be weaker than last years, and might even be struggling to win games, especially against the Boks. Stay in France, enjoy another year with Pau, playing alongside his brother.
10 Go to commentsRyan Coxon has been very impressive considering he was signed by WF as injury cover whilst Uru has been a standout for QR, surprised neither of those mentioned
3 Go to commentsIt’s the massive value he brings with regard team culture/values, preparation, etc. Can’t buy that. I’m hoping to see the young locks get their chance in the big games though.
10 Go to commentsAll good, Gregor, except that you neglected to mention Sam Darry amongst that talented pool of locks. In fact, given Hannah’s inexperience and the fact that Holland won’t be eligible until next year, Lord and Darry might be the frontrunners this year, to join Barrett, Tuipoluto, Va’ii and possibly Whitelock. In fact there might be room for all of them if Barrett played 6 (like Ollie Chessum).
10 Go to commentsHis value is stabilizing the ship 20 - 40 minutes out from the final whistle plus his valuable experience to the underlings coming through.
10 Go to commentsWhat is criminal is she acts like it's no problem her actions have have cause the Italian player to lose her playing career, lose salary, if she did this in day to day life she would be in jail, she is a complete thug!!!
3 Go to commentsCorrect me if i’m wrong but the sadas have to win all games running into the finals yeh nah?
1 Go to commentsDon’t like Diamond but the maul is a joke, the sight of a choke tackle creating a maul then players in offside positions flopping on it killing the ball but then getting the put in? Banal.
3 Go to commentsHopefully Tabai Matson returns to Crusaders as head coach next season.
1 Go to commentsstorm in a teacup really. Penalty only so play on as the try was scored. Now the real question is: why was Maitland allowed to pass the ball off the floor? That is illegal but refs never pick it up.
1 Go to commentsWhen Beauden Barrett signed his contract before the 2023 RWC to play in Japan in 2024, it was NOT part of a sabbatical agreed to with NZRU prior to his signing, as was Ardie Savea and Sam Cane. Barrett changed his mind after the fact and negotiated his return to NZ Rugby and he was given permission to be eligible for All Black selection straight away once he signed a new contract to return to the Blues in 2025. Therefore, why would anyone argue against Whitelock returning to the All Blacks straight away after his season is France is finished if he signs a new contract with NZRU which includes a Super Rugby contract in 2025? If Barrett can, Whitelock should be allowed too.
10 Go to comments