The Breakdown: A statistical look at Saturday's rugby internationals
It’s that time of year again, when the giants of Southern Hemisphere rugby head north to take on Europe’s finest.
The All Blacks kick off their tour in France, while Australia head to Cardiff to take on a Wales side who have a historically dismal record against the Wallabies.
Ireland lock horns with South Africa for the first time since their closely fought 2016 series, and England and Scotland take on Argentina and Samoa respectively.
With the help of Opta, we take a statistical look at Saturday’s feast of international rugby.
England v Argentina
The Pumas head to Twickenham for the 23rd meeting between these sides hoping for a first win in the fixture since 2006.
Promisingly for England, no team has averaged more points per game against Argentina (36) since the 2011 Rugby World Cup and they have won 10 consecutive matches at HQ since losing to Wales and Australia during the 2015 RWC.
Eddie Jones will be looking to winger Semesa Rokodoguni to carry his club form into the November internationals – the Bath man, who will be on the bench at Twickenham, has seven tries to his name in the Premiership this season and is one of only six players to make more than 500 metres with ball in hand.
France v New Zealand
Only South Africa (37 per cent) and Australia (26 per cent) have a better win rate versus the All Blacks than France (21 per cent), but New Zealand are on a 10-match winning run against Les Bleus.
France have not beaten New Zealand in Paris since 1973, while the All Blacks are out to avoid back-to-back defeats for the first time since August 2011, having lost to Australia in their final Bledisloe Cup fixture.
The visitors could bring up a significant milestone in the French capital – they are just three short of becoming the first team in Test history to score 2,000 tries.
Ireland v South Africa
Saturday’s clash in Dublin promises to be a tight encounter after the last three meetings – all during Ireland’s 2016 tour of South Africa – were decided by exactly six points.
Ireland have lost just two of 18 matches at the Aviva Stadium since the start of 2014 and they have won four of their last six home clashes with the Springboks.
South Africa, meanwhile, have a poor recent record on the road, having won only one of their last nine away fixtures.
Scotland v Samoa
Victory over Samoa would see Scotland achieve their best winning run at Murrayfield since 1991, having won each of their last four matches in Edinburgh.
Samoa are on their longest losing run (four matches) since 1981 but are aiming to become the 25th team to record 100 Test victories.
Finn Russell’s form in the Pro14 suggests he will have a big role to play for Scotland over the coming month. The fly-half has missed just one of 21 kicks with Glasgow Warriors – the best conversion rate in the competition.
110 – No player has won as many caps for @Scotlandteam as Ross Ford (110), who is the third most capped hooker in Test history. Sidelined. pic.twitter.com/mZ46DeTjeC
— OptaJonny (@OptaJonny) November 6, 2017
Wales v Australia
Wales have beaten the Wallabies on just two occasions in the last 30 years but 10 of Australia’s last 11 victories in the fixture have come by single-figure margins.
Michael Cheika’s men are on their best winning streak (six matches) since the seven-game run that was halted by New Zealand in the World Cup final, although they posted both the worst goal-kicking (75 per cent) and lineout (88 per cent) success rates in the Rugby Championship.
Dan Biggar will join an exclusive club of Welshmen to have made 50 international starts at fly-half – only Neil Jenkins and Stephen Jones have previously achieved the feat.
Comments on RugbyPass
This team does not beat the ABs sadly
11 Go to commentsCompletely agree. More friday night games would be a hit. RFU to make sure every club has a floodlit pitch. Club opens again Saturday to welcome touch / tag. Minis and youths on Sunday
3 Go to comments1.97m and 105Kg? Proportionately, probably skinnier than me at 1.82 and 82kilos. He won’t survive against the big guys at that weight.
55 Go to commentsThe value he brought to the crusaders as an assistant was equal to what he got out of being there. He reflected not only on the team culture but also the credit he attributed to the rugby community. Such experience shouldn’t be overlooked.
3 Go to commentsGood luck Aussie
11 Go to commentssmith at 9 / mounga 10 / laumape 12 / fainganuku 14
54 Go to commentsBar the injuries, it’s pretty much their top team …
2 Go to commentsDon’t disagree with much of this but it appears you forgot Rodda and Beale, who started at the Force on the weekend.
11 Go to commentsExcept for the injured Zach Gallagher this would be Saders best forward pack for the season. Blackadder needs to stay at 7, for all of Christies tackling he is not dominant and offers very little else. McNicholfullback is maybe a good option, Fihaki not really upto it, there was a reason Burke played there last year. Maybe Havilli to 2nd five McLeod to wing. Need a strong winger on 1 side to compliment Reece
1 Go to commentsTo me TJ is clearly the best 9 in the competition right now but he's also a proven player off the bench, there's few playmaking players who can come off the bench as calm and settled as he is, Beauden can, TJ can and I doubt any of the scrumhalves in contention can, if they want to experiment with new 9s I want him on the bench ready to step in if they crumble under the pressure. The Boks put their best front row on the bench, I'd like to see us take a similar approach, the Hurricanes have been doing similar things with players like Kirifi.
54 Go to commentsROG has better chance to win a WC if he starts training and make himself eligible as a player. He won’t make the Ireland squad but I reckon he may get close with Namibia (needs to improve his Afrikaans) or Portugal. Both sides had 1000:1 odds to win the RWC in 2023 which is an improvement on ROG’s odds of winning a RWC as a coach. Unlike Top 14 teams, national teams can’t go shopping and buy the best players - you work with the available talent pool and turn them into world beaters.
3 Go to commentsthat backline nope that backline is terrible why would you have sevu Reece when he’s not even top 5 wingers in the comp why have Blackadder when there’s better players no Scott barret isn’t an automatic the guy is more of a liability than anything why have him there when you have samipeni who’s far far better
54 Go to commentsAh, good to find you Nick. Agree with everything about Cale. So much to like about his game
55 Go to commentsNot too bad. Questions at 6, lock and HB for me. The ABs will be a lot stronger once Jordan and Roigard return. Also, work needs to be made to secure Frizzell back for next season and maybe also Mo’unga; they’re just wasting time playing in japan
54 Go to commentsOn the title, i wonder for many of those people it is a case something like a belief in working smarter, not harder?
1 Go to commentsForget Sotutu. One of those whose top level is Super Rugby. Id take a punt on Wallace Sititi Finau ahead of Glass body Blackadder.
54 Go to commentsI’m a pensioner so I've been around a bit. My opinion of SBW is he is an elite athlete and a great New Zealander and roll model. He has been to the top and knows what he's talking about. To all the negative comments regarding SBW the typical New Zealand way, cut that tall poppy down.
17 Go to commentsI'm not listening to a guy moralise over others when this is the guy who walked out mid season on Canterbury RLFC when he had a contract with them, what a hypocrite. All the Kiwis sticking up for this unprincipled individual because they can't accept justified criticism, he has zero credibility or integrity. Those praising him are a joke.
17 Go to commentsI’d put Finau at 6 instead of Blackadder but that’s the only change I’d make. Can’t wait to see who Razor picks.
54 Go to commentsTamati Williams, Codie Taylor, and Same Cane? Not sure about Hoskins Sotutu at test level. Wasn’t that impressive last season. Need a balance between experience and talent/youth.
54 Go to comments