The Breakdown: A preview to Saturday's rugby internationals
For most, this weekend marks the final round of fixtures in the end-of-year internationals.
Every team aside from Wales and South Africa, who face off a week on Saturday, bring the curtain down on their respective 2017 schedules on Saturday.
The world champion All Blacks face Wales in Cardiff, Scotland take on Australia while England and Ireland have the markedly less imposing tasks of attempting to defeat Samoa and Argentina respectively.
France will be heavily favoured to end their year with a victory over Japan and here, with the help of Opta data, we take a statistical look at this weekend’s fixtures.
England v Samoa
Off-the-field concerns have dominated Samoa’s build-up to their internationals, with their governing body said to have gone bankrupt, a claim disputed by World Rugby.
And they are unlikely to find much in the way of solace at Twickenham, with England having won all seven of their Test meetings by 13 points or more, and coming off a somewhat flattering 30-6 win over Australia.
Should England prevail, it will be their 200th win at Twickenham, and see them become the first team to win as many games at a single venue. A shock Samoa triumph would be their 100th in Test rugby.
– @EnglandRugby have recorded the biggest ever winning margin (24 points) against @qantaswallabies. Merciless.
— OptaJonny (@OptaJonny) November 18, 2017
France v Japan
France can put some of the pain of defeats to New Zealand and South Africa behind him against the Brave Blossoms, who they have faced three times previous, winning each by an average margin of 20 points.
Though they triumphed on French soil against Tonga last time out, Japan have history against them. France have not lost three successive home games since 1999.
Japan are in form on their travels, though, losing just three of their last 13 matches away from home since the beginning of the 2015 World Cup.
Ireland v Argentina
Wing Adam Byrne will win his first cap for Ireland as they look to gain some measure of revenge on Argentina, who beat them in their most recent meeting in the quarter-finals of the 2015 World Cup.
That loss was Ireland’s first in six games against Argentina, who ended a run of seven consecutive defeats on the road, their joint worst such run in Test history, by beating Italy last week.
Hooker Rory Best will start in Dublin and is set to surpass John Hayes as Ireland’s second most capped forward behind Paul O’Connell (108 caps). Best will move onto 106 Test appearances.
Scotland v Australia
Games between Scotland and Australia have been typically even affairs in recent years. Each team has won three of the last six meetings, with all of those games being decided by less than a converted try and half of them settled by just one point.
But at Murrayfield Scotland have struggled against the Wallabies. Three of their last four wins over the Wallabies have come in Australia. By contrast, they have lost 10 of their last 11 home games with Australia.
The hosts have scored at least one try in each of their last 13 games, only on three occasions have Scotland embarked on a longer such run.
Wales v New Zealand
The All Blacks will be without skipper Kieran Read because of a back injury, as New Zealand look to extend their winning run against Wales to 30 matches.
New Zealand have triumphed in their last 15 games against Wales in Cardiff, with nine of the last 11 victories in that streak coming by at least 12 points.
Both the British and Irish Lions and Australia have beaten New Zealand in 2017. Should Wales prevail, it will mark the first time since 2009 that they have lost more two games in a calendar year.
8 – The @AllBlacks have been given 8 yellow cards in 2017, all to different players. Sinners.
— OptaJonny (@OptaJonny) November 18, 2017
Comments on RugbyPass
Results probably skewed by the fact that a few clubs have foreign fly halves in their 30s, but most teams have young English scrum halves. Results also likely to be skewed by the fact that many teams rely on centres and fullbacks to provide depth at 10, whereas they will need to stock a large number of specialist backup 9s.
1 Go to commentsI really get the sense that when all is said and done, the path of least resistance will end up being a merger of Wasps & Worcester that essentially kills the Worcester Warriors brand and sees Wasps permanently playing at Sixways. I’m not saying that’s what should happen or what I want to happen. I just think it’s the easiest rout to take and therefore, will be what happens. Wasps will definitely return to play first, and I suppose it all depends on if they can find support at Sixways. If people turn up and support Wasps in that community, at that ground, I bet they drop the Sevenoaks plan and just remain at Sixways. Under the radar but not totally unrelated, it looks as though London Irish are going to be brought back from the dead by a German consortium and look set to return, likely to the remade Championship. It’s set to have 12 clubs next season with 14 in 2025/26, what do you want to bet those extra 2 are Wasps and London Irish?
1 Go to commentsThe shoulder is a “joint” with multiple bones. You don’t “fracture” a shoulder, you fracture any one or more of the bones that make up a shoulder.
2 Go to commentsOh dear, bones too suspect to continue?
2 Go to commentsBold headline considering the Canes and Blues are 1 and 2 and the Brumbies were soundly beaten by the Chiefs and Blues. Biggest surprise is Rebels 4 Crusaders 12 - no one saw that coming. If Aus are improving that’s great 👍
1 Go to commentsAnna, You are right, we need to have patience whilst the others catch up to England and France. Also it is the PWR that has been the game changer for England. the RFU put money into that initially at the expense of the Red Roses. I was sceptical at first but it has paid off in spades.
1 Go to commentsI think Matt Proctor became a 1 test AB in the same fixture. Cameron is quality and has been great this season, can’t believe’s he only 27. Realistically how would he not be selected for ABs squad this year. Only Dmac is ahead of him as a specialist 10. With Jordan out, it will come down to where and when Beauden Barrett slots back in, and where they want to play Ruben Love. Cameron seems an absolute lock in for the wider squad though. Added benefit of TJ-Cameron-Jordie combination at 9, 10, 11 too.
1 Go to commentsFarcical, to what end would someone want to pay to keep this thing going.
1 Go to commentsHavili, our best 12 by a mile, will be in the squad, if he stays fit. JB is the most overrated AB in the last 50 years.
61 Go to commentsWe had during the week twilight footy, twilight cricket, tw golf plus there was the athletics club. Then the weekend was rugby 15s plus the net ball, really busy club scene back then but so much has changed and rugby has suffered. And it was all about changing lifestyles.
6 Go to commentsIn the 70s and 80s my club ran 5 Senior sides plus a Vets. Now it is 2 sides with an occasional 3rd team. Players have difficulty getting to training now, not sure why and the commitment is not there. It seems to me more a problem of people applying themselves and not expecting to turn up and play whenever they want to.
6 Go to commentsROG’s contract is until 2027. The conversation about a successor to Galthie after RWC 2027 may be starting now. We can infer that Galthie’s reign stops then. He is throwing the Irish Coaching Job angle in because he is Irish. The next Irish coach MUST be Leo Cullen. As well as being the best coach available, coaching the vast majority of Irish Internationals week in week out, he has shown incredible skill at recruiting the best coaching staff for the job in hand. That was a failing in France. Cullen is a shrewd guy and if there is a need for foreign coaches underneath him he won’t hesitate. Rightly so. Ireland does need to start to bring Irish coaches through. Not just at the professional level but we need to train coaches to man new pathways for developing kids from schools/clubs up through the divisions.
8 Go to commentsNo Islam says it must rule where it stands Thus it is to be deleted from this planet Earth
18 Go to commentsThis team probably does not beat the ABs sadly Not sure if BPA will be available given his signing for Force but has to enter consideration. Very strong possibility of getting schooled by the AB props. Advantage AB. Rodda/Skelton would be a tasty locking combination - would love to see how they get on. Advantage Wallabies. Backrow a risk of getting out hustled and outmuscled by ABs. Will be interesting to see if the Blues feast on the Reds this weekend the way they did the Brumbies we are in big trouble at the breakdown. Great energy, running and defence but goalkicking/general kicking/passing quality in the halves bothers me enormously. SA may have won the World Cup for a lot of the tournament without a recognised goalkicker but Pollard in the final made a difference IMO. Injuries and retirements leave AB stocks a bit lighter but still stronger. 12 and 13 ABs shade it (Barret > Paisami, Ione = Ikitau, arguably) Interesting clash of styles on the wings - Corey Toole running around Caleb Clark and Caleb running over the top of Toole. Reece vs Koro probably the reverse. Pretty even IMO. 15s Kelleway = Love See advantage to ABs man for man, but we are not obviously getting slaughtered anywhere which makes a nice change. Think talent wise we are pretty even and if our cohesion and teamwork is better than the ABs then its just about doable.
11 Go to commentsCompletely agree. More friday night games would be a hit. RFU to make sure every club has a floodlit pitch. Club opens again Saturday to welcome touch / tag. Minis and youths on Sunday
6 Go to comments1.97m and 105Kg? Proportionately, probably skinnier than me at 1.82 and 82kilos. He won’t survive against the big guys at that weight.
56 Go to commentsThe value he brought to the crusaders as an assistant was equal to what he got out of being there. He reflected not only on the team culture but also the credit he attributed to the rugby community. Such experience shouldn’t be overlooked.
8 Go to commentsGood luck Aussie
11 Go to commentssmith at 9 / mounga 10 / laumape 12 / fainganuku 14
61 Go to commentsBar the injuries, it’s pretty much their top team …
2 Go to comments