Analysis: Why England can't break down Ireland and where the Irish weak spots are
England face a tall order to kick off their Six Nations campaign, up against the reigning Grand Slam champions in Dublin, where they have only won twice since 2000.
England lost at home to Ireland in the final round of last year’s Six Nations, where a handful of miscues led to the visitors building a 21-5 halftime lead. Eddie Jones selected a power-based line up, picking a pack with enormous size and a midfield with Ben Te’o and Jonathan Joseph, pushing Owen Farrell into flyhalf.
They did not go without their chances, failing to score from four straight lineout mauls inside Ireland’s 10 midway through the first half, kicking away multiple opportunities deep into Ireland’s territory and compounding problems by giving away penalties to allow Ireland to piggyback away downfield.
England’s maul was dismantled on their own turf despite having a pack full of ‘beef’ – Mako Vunipola, Dylan Hartley, Kyle Sinckler, Maro Itoje, Chris Robshaw and James Haskell – which permeated into other areas of the game as the pack struggled to find leeway.
Size over skill
England’s attack is carry-focused, with heavy amounts of carries before releasing Farrell and the backs. There is less interplay between forwards and backs, with England’s pack built for one thing – bulldozing.
When you can’t pound over the gain line and beat your opponent backward, it becomes very difficult to slice them up with speed and shared ball-skills that you don’t have.
If the pack is not getting a roll-on then the attack becomes rigid – they cannot attack space quickly as a unit. Many of the set-piece patterns rely on two or three carries coming around the corner in order to bend the defensive line backward and weaken the numbers on one side before a strike.
However, Ireland’s outside backs are very skilled at playing jockey coverage and tend to deploy it against teams that are deficient with draw-and-pass skills, making it easier to recover from these positions.
On the third phase after two carries around the corner from a lineout, England run a play wide to the right. Farrell squares up the Irish inside defence, and plays Jonathan Joseph (13) out the back, creating stress on the right-hand side.
Ireland’s edge defence is going to be outnumbered so Garry Ringrose (13) and Jacob Stockdale (11) prepare to bail.
They use a jockey technique to buy time and shadow the ball to the sideline, while fullback Rob Kearney rushes up from the backfield. England’s backs spread the ball through the hands without committing anyone, keeping all the Irish defenders alive.
Kearney (15) decides to close down on Jonny May (14) as dictated by their ‘last man’ defensive system.
England has made a decent gain but Ireland’s defence didn’t break and most of the numbers are on their feet. This is where England’s rigid play fails to capitalise on the one thing they did achieve – taking out the fullback.
Ireland only has Keith Earls in the backfield, trying to recover back to the open side, with no wingers in support coverage. Both Kearney (15) and Stockdale (11) are stuck at the bottom of the ruck.
The halves duo of Conor Murray (9) and Johnny Sexton (10) are defending on the edge – not the fastest pair – and would be outgunned by a speedster like Elliot Daly. Ireland are vulnerable to a cross-field kick without their full kick coverage team (Kearney, Earls, and Stockdale), or advantageous match-ups can be found attacking the opposite edge and getting a one-on-one with a slower defender.
Instead, England creates slow ball by waiting for their pod to get into place, which takes too long and is disjointed. They play Haskell for a carry, reverting back to winning space via collision, which fails.
Ireland’s pack are a bit leaner but just as powerful, possess more aerobic capacity, and more athletic dynamism. They are able to match England’s physicality and handle their ball carriers, allowing Ireland’s back three to reset again.
The same issues present moments later when after some more carries, the backs get a release deep on attack.
Farrell (10) plays flat and gives a cutout ball to a steaming Te’o (12), who runs over Sexton and attracts Murray’s attention. His strong carry decimates Ireland’s edge defence by pulling in multiple defenders and creates front-foot ball to use.
Just one more play the same way with quick ball will likely result in a try to Daly (11) as Ireland’s edge is shot.
Mike Brown (15), Joseph (13) and Farrell (10) all join the ruck creating a disjointed mess and missing the opportunity for a 2-on-1 to the left.
If Farrell set-up on the left calling for ‘hot’ ball he could easily draw or hold Earls, who has drifted in field, long enough to put Daly over from only five metres out. Instead, Farrell tries to play halfback, creating confusion and allowing Ireland to recover.
England plays another carry back right before Farrell tries the left side a play late. He finds Daly who is ankle-tapped and pushed into touch. Ireland gets the lineout throw and clear their lines.
Opportunities to score go begging frequently and this is often because a change of approach can’t be made to go wide and then wide again or play backs-ball quickly twice.
It is rare that England’s backs will get two phases in a row to play. They can make in-roads but then the forwards take over and slow the game down, and against Ireland’s equally tough defence, one-dimensional tactics like running over your opposition just won’t work.
Ireland’s kick-bait
England dominated territory and possession inside the first five minutes but threw away good ball by looking for the low percentage grubber kick play in behind twice, coming away with zero points for their early work.
This is the same tactic the All Blacks got baited into using in November – the space looks there to kick into, so it seems a good idea.
The problem is Ireland’s back three are so good in kick coverage that unless the kick is executed perfectly, it is extremely hard to pull off. It is only when you hamstring the back three in the example above, does an attacking kick become more likely to come off.
Ireland runs a back-three pendulum, but the only constant in the backfield is Kearney. They trust the wingers to know when to drop into kick coverage, and the supporting cast of Earls and Stockdale aid Kearney well.
Most the time both wingers are up in the line, but they often anticipate the kick and are able to turn and clean up.
To illustrate how good their situational awareness is, here Earls shows Scotland the space in behind by defending most the way up. He reads Finn Russell’s (10) setup and knows a kick is a high probability.
Russell hasn’t even started his kick motion yet and Earls is off, dropping back into kick coverage. He catches the ball on the full calling a mark and Ireland can clear easily without having to execute an exit play.
What looks open space with Ireland, generally isn’t.
And what looks like a good option deep inside Ireland’s territory, often becomes a 22-metre restart and Ireland are able to exit way downfield and the opposition comes away with zero points.
Ireland’s defence, particularly the wingers, predict the play and pre-empt the kick often, so if you are predictable it will be covered. However, the opportunity is there to exploit this tendency and manipulate Ireland.
This is a box kick on halfway from the Scotland clash. Greig Laidlaw (9) is selling the kick and Scotland are setup for a box kick, Dan Leavy (7) has turned his back on the attack and is already backtracking, Murray (9) on the short-side is retreating and Earls is already so far back he’s nearly out of shot.
With Murray so deep, the vacant short side snipe is on, and the same opportunity exists on the open side if the backs were a bit deeper.
Using kick-fakes – running pass plays out of kick formations – is one way to manipulate Ireland’s defence and turn their strength (kick coverage pre-emptiveness) into a weakness, but no side has tried it yet.
The All Blacks one attacking grubber kick that nearly worked did both of the aforementioned things – weakening the back three before selling one thing and trying something else.
The All Blacks make healthy in-roads down the left-hand side through Jack Goodhue. Earls (14) is forced to make a tackle, and Kearney (15) is downfield out of shot also out of play after making a tackle attempt.
Two phases later Beauden Barrett (10) gets the ball going right. Kearney (15) is still retreating onside at the bottom of the screen and Stockdale (11) is the only one in the backfield.
Stockdale is a known ball-hawk who actively looks for the intercept and on this occasion is starting to push down hard looking for the pass.
Barrett uses a big pump-fake to pull Stockdale right down into the line, before re-loading and putting it in behind with the grubber kick. Ireland are without either Earls or Kearney in rolling support coverage so the open pasture presents a massive opportunity.
If Barrett’s kick had more weight on it, Ben Smith (14) has a high chance of scoring a crucial try.
Peter O’Mahony (6) makes a great try-saving play to snatch it out of Smith’s grasp and save Ireland. Even Stockdale himself is able to recover well after trying to jump the pass.
Again, even when the grubber kick presented the best opportunity, Ireland still covered it showing how futile it can be and lengths you have to go to set up a play like this.
England’s only try in the first half at Twickenham came via a Farrell grubber kick to Daly, so they did eventually score in this fashion against Ireland.
However, it was on the third attempt of a kick in behind. They failed to score on another grubber in the second half, scoring on one from four attempts. This is a return of 1.75 points per visit into Ireland’s 22, less than a penalty goal on the four times they tried kicking in behind.
When you add in the failed mauling attempts, England’s inability to score with prime field position was critical and falling behind early was a death knell.
If England falls behind on the scoreboard, the ‘beefed up’ pack becomes a liability. They have to chase points but can only play one way, unable to play with speed and width to create space.
If they are to continue to play a traditional English game based around territorial kicking and muscle up front to bully the opposition, they will continue to run into problems when the pack is dominated or the opposition gets a fast-start.
All the eggs are in one basket, and last March Ireland stomped on that basket until all the eggs were broken. Neutralise the pack, bait them to kick away good possession, and play the possession-based game they are experts at. Not to mention England’s poor discipline which further helped Ireland’s cause.
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Hi, Dave here. Happy to answer questions 🥰
3 Go to commentsDon’t think that headline is accurate. It’s great to see Aus doing better but I’m not sure they’ve shown much threat to the top of the table. They shouldn’t be inflating wins against the lousy Highlanders and Crusaders either.
3 Go to commentsSuch a shame Roigard and Aumua picked up long term injuries, probably the two form players in the comp. Also, pretty sure Clarke Dermody isn’t their coach. Got it half right though.
3 Go to commentsOh the Aussie media, they never learn. It’s simple to see what’s going on. The Aussie teams are settled, they didn't lose any of their major players overseas. The Crusaders and Chiefs lost key experienced All Blacks, and Razor in the Crusaders case, and clearly neither are anywhere near as strong as last year (The Canes and Blues would probably be 3rd & 4th if they were). The Highlanders are annually average, even more so post-Aaron Smith and a big squad clean out. The two teams at the top? The two nz sides with largely the same settled roster as last year, except Ardie Savea for the Canes. They’ve both got far better coaches now too. If the Aussies are going to win the title, this is the year the kiwi sides will be weakest, so they better take their chance.
3 Go to commentsThe World Cup has to be the gold standard, line in the sand. 113 teams compete for what is the opportunity to make the pool stages, and then the knockout games for the trophy. The concept is sound. This must have been the rationale when the World Cup was created, surely? But I’m all for Looking forward and finding new ways for the SH to dominate the NH into the future. The autumn series needs a change up. Let’s start by having the NH teams come south every odd year for the Autumn/Spring series games?
3 Go to commentsWhat’ll happen when the AI models of the future go back in time and try to destroy the AI models of the past standing in their way of certain victory?
41 Go to commentsThanks, Nick. We (Seanny Maloney, Brett and I) just discussed Charlie as a potential Wallaby No 8, and wondered if he has truly realised how big he is in contact (and whether he can add 5 kg w/o slowing down). Your scouting report confirms our suspicions he has the materiel. No one knows if he has the mentality (as Johann van Graan said this week about CJ, Duane and Alfie B) to carry 10-15 times a game.
57 Go to commentsHe would be a great player for the Stormers, Dobbo should approach the guy.
3 Go to commentsGood article. A few years back when he was playing for the Cheetahs, he was a quiet standout for exactly the seasons stated here. I occasionally get to see his games in the UK, and he has become a more complete player and in many ways like an Irish player. His work ethic is so suitable to the Leinster game. I wonder if Rassie would have him listed somewhere.
3 Go to commentsResults probably skewed by the fact that a few clubs have foreign fly halves in their 30s, but most teams have young English scrum halves. Results also likely to be skewed by the fact that many teams rely on centres and fullbacks to provide depth at 10, whereas they will need to stock a large number of specialist backup 9s.
1 Go to commentsI really get the sense that when all is said and done, the path of least resistance will end up being a merger of Wasps & Worcester that essentially kills the Worcester Warriors brand and sees Wasps permanently playing at Sixways. I’m not saying that’s what should happen or what I want to happen. I just think it’s the easiest rout to take and therefore, will be what happens. Wasps will definitely return to play first, and I suppose it all depends on if they can find support at Sixways. If people turn up and support Wasps in that community, at that ground, I bet they drop the Sevenoaks plan and just remain at Sixways. Under the radar but not totally unrelated, it looks as though London Irish are going to be brought back from the dead by a German consortium and look set to return, likely to the remade Championship. It’s set to have 12 clubs next season with 14 in 2025/26, what do you want to bet those extra 2 are Wasps and London Irish?
3 Go to commentsThe shoulder is a “joint” with multiple bones. You don’t “fracture” a shoulder, you fracture any one or more of the bones that make up a shoulder.
2 Go to commentsOh dear, bones too suspect to continue?
2 Go to commentsBold headline considering the Canes and Blues are 1 and 2 and the Brumbies were soundly beaten by the Chiefs and Blues. Biggest surprise is Rebels 4 Crusaders 12 - no one saw that coming. If Aus are improving that’s great 👍
3 Go to commentsAnna, You are right, we need to have patience whilst the others catch up to England and France. Also it is the PWR that has been the game changer for England. the RFU put money into that initially at the expense of the Red Roses. I was sceptical at first but it has paid off in spades.
1 Go to commentsI think Matt Proctor became a 1 test AB in the same fixture. Cameron is quality and has been great this season, can’t believe’s he only 27. Realistically how would he not be selected for ABs squad this year. Only Dmac is ahead of him as a specialist 10. With Jordan out, it will come down to where and when Beauden Barrett slots back in, and where they want to play Ruben Love. Cameron seems an absolute lock in for the wider squad though. Added benefit of TJ-Cameron-Jordie combination at 9, 10, 11 too.
1 Go to commentsFarcical, to what end would someone want to pay to keep this thing going.
1 Go to commentsHavili, our best 12 by a mile, will be in the squad, if he stays fit. JB is the most overrated AB in the last 50 years.
61 Go to commentsWe had during the week twilight footy, twilight cricket, tw golf plus there was the athletics club. Then the weekend was rugby 15s plus the net ball, really busy club scene back then but so much has changed and rugby has suffered. And it was all about changing lifestyles.
6 Go to commentsIn the 70s and 80s my club ran 5 Senior sides plus a Vets. Now it is 2 sides with an occasional 3rd team. Players have difficulty getting to training now, not sure why and the commitment is not there. It seems to me more a problem of people applying themselves and not expecting to turn up and play whenever they want to.
6 Go to comments