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How the final act of the 2017 Six Nations could change the 2019 World Cup
The Irish should be cheering on the French this weekend. More weirdly, and depending on what happens in Paris, Welsh rugby fans may actually WANT England to win the Grand Slam. Here’s why…
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The Six Nations championship – and the destination of the wooden spoon – may have been decided a week early, but this final round of matches is no dead rubber.
What happens in Edinburgh, Paris and Dublin this weekend could shape events in Kyoto, Japan, on May 10, as international rugby’s very own, very specific chaos butterfly flaps its wings for the final time before the draw for the 2019 World Cup takes place.
Similar to its more commonly known chaos theory cousin, the hurricane butterfly, what lepidoptera rugbychaotica does this weekend in those three European cities could have a big effect on the other side of the world in several weeks’ time.
Thanks to their top-three pool finishes in the 2015 World Cup, all the Six Nations and Rugby Championship sides, as well as Japan and Georgia, are included in the draw. Fiji, currently ranked 10th have yet to qualify.
The 12 sides will be split into three groups of four based on World Rugby’s rankings on May 10, which will not change from the rankings decided, following this weekend’s matches. Using current standings, the 12 confirmed teams at Japan 2019 breakdown as follows:
Draw Tier 1: New Zealand, England, Australia, Ireland
Draw Tier 2: Scotland, Wales, South Africa, France
Draw Tier 3: Argentina, Japan, Georgia, Italy
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Two further tiers for teams yet to qualify from their tournaments will be included in the draw.
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Tier 1 teams will be drawn first into four separate pools. Those four pools will be filled in turn by teams drawn from tier 2, then tier 3, and so on.
France and Wales meet in a match that could have the biggest impact on the all-important rankings. Rob Howley’s Wales will take Ireland’s top-four place – and their tier 1 slot – if they win in Paris and England complete the first-ever back-to-back Grand Slam in the 17-year history of the Six Nations in Dublin.
Meanwhile, if France loses by 15 points or more, they will drop one crucial place to ninth in World Rugby’s rankings, surrendering their tier 2 slot to Argentina, and becoming all the more likely to be drawn in an impossible pool.
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meanwhile, things may be looking good for Scotland, despite last week’s shellacking by England, as Vern Cotter prepares to hand over the keys to the head coach’s office to Gregor Townsend. Stern Vern’s final match in charge is at home against Italy, and it has all the hallmarks of a big farewell party to the man who has restored a fair portion of Scottish pride to the rugby rank and file.
Ranking points are calculated using a formula based on opposing teams’ current standings. As a result, Scotland, currently basking in their best World Rugby ranking of fifth, stand to gain no points no matter how well they beat 15th-placed Italy. Even if they lose a close game, they will remain in the top eight – which would mean they would be included in the second tier of teams in May’s big draw. But, should the unthinkable happen and Italy win by 15 points or more, Scotland will drop to ninth. That would put them in the third tier for the draw.
And, as you have no doubt worked out, if Wales win in Paris, Ireland have to win in Dublin to preserve their top four, top-tier status.
All of which means that Irish fans, despite their shared Celtic bond with Wales, should probably support France in Paris. Of course, if Wales win, anyone heading into Cardiff city centre later one, could witness the strange sight and sound of Welsh rugby fans cheering and chanting – maybe even singing! – for England in the final match of ‘Super Saturday’.
Such is the effect of international rugby’s chaos butterfly.
Comments on RugbyPass
I hope Leinster’s proud of themselves fielding a poor team. They should decide if they’re all in or not.
1 Go to commentsJordie is looking at 16 games maximum if Leinster reach both the URC and champions cup finals. Thats not guaranteed. Some of those home URC fixtures will be cakewalks as well for Leinster and there is not much doing during the 6 nations in Feb and March so he can probably get a decent rest then. He will have to really put in it for maybe 7 or 8 games max. It should be a good move for both.
13 Go to commentsThe game was a quarter final, not a semi final. Barrett will be here for 6 months, he is no one's replacement at 13. That mantle will most likely ultimately go to Jamie Osborne, though Garry Ringrose has at least 4 more years in him. The long term problem position (in the next 3 years) for Leinster is tighthead prop, though there are a couple of prospects at schools level.
23 Go to commentsSo much for all that hype surrounding the ‘revival’ of Aussie rugby. The Blues were without the likes of regular starters Perofeta, Sullivan, Christie etc… This was a capitulation of the highest order by Australia’s finest. Joe Schmidt definitely has his work cut out for him.
2 Go to commentsYes they can ignore Sotutu. Like Akira Ioane plays OK at Super level but gets lost in tests. Too many chances too many failures.
2 Go to commentsA wallaby front-row of Bell, Blake and Tupou…now that would be hefty
1 Go to comments“But with an exceptional pass accuracy rating “ Which apart from Roigard is not a feature of any of the other 9s in NZ. Kind of basic for a Black 9 dont.you. think? Yet we keep seeing FC and TJ being rated ahead of him? Weird if it’s seen as vital to get our backline beating in your face defences.
1 Go to commentsThanks BeeMc! Looks like many teams need extra time to settle from the quadrennial northern migration. I think generally the quality of the Rugby has held up. Fiji has been fantastic and fun to watch
13 Go to commentsLets compare apples with apples. Lyon sent weak team the week before, but nobody raised an eyebrow. Give the South African teams a few years to build their depth, then you will be moaning that the teams are too strong.
41 Go to commentsDid footballs agents also perform the scout role at some time? I’m surprised more high profile players haven’t taken up the occupation, great way to remain in the game and use all that experience without really requiring a lot of specific expertise?
1 Go to commentsSuper rugby is struggling but that has little to do with sabbaticals. 1. Too many teams from Aust and NZ - should be 3 and 4 respectively, add in 2 from Japan, 1 possibly 2 from Argentina. 2. Inconsistent and poor refereeing, admittedly not restricted to Super rugby. Only one team was reffed at the breakdown in Reds v H’Landers match. Scrum penalty awarded in Canes v Drua when No 8 had the ball in the open with little defence nearby - ideal opportunity to play advantage. Coming back to Reds match - same scrum situation but ref played advantage - Landers made 10 yards and were penalised at the breakdown when the ref should have returned to scrum penalty. 3. Marketing is weak and losing ground to AFL and NRL. Playing 2 days compared with 4. 4. Scheduling is unattractive to family attendance. Have any franchises heard of Sundays 2pm?
13 Go to commentsAbsolutely..all they need is a chance in yhe playoffs and I bet all the other teams will be nervous…THEY KNOW HOW TO WIN IM THE PLAYOFFS..
2 Go to commentsI really hope he comes back and helps out with some coaching.
1 Go to commentsI think we are all just hoping that the Olympic 7s doesn’t suffer the same sad fate as the last RWC with the officials ruining the spectacle.
1 Go to commentsPersonally, I’ve lost the will to even be bothered about the RFU, the structure, the participants. It’s all a sham. I now simply enjoy getting a group of friends together to go and watch a few games a year in different locations (including Europe, the championship, etc). I feel extremely sorry for the real fans of these clubs who are constantly ignored by the RFU and other administrators. I feel especially sorry for the fans of clubs in the Championship who have had considerable central funding stripped away and are then expected to just take whatever the RFU put to them. Its all a sham, especially if the failed clubs are allowed to return.
10 Go to commentsI’m guessing Carl Hayman would have preferred to have stayed in NZ with benefit of hindsight. Up north there is the expectation to play twice as many games with far less ‘player management’ protocols that Paul is now criticising. Less playing through concussions means longer, healthier, careers. Carter used as the eg here by Paul, his sabbatical allowed him to play until age 37. OK its not an exact science but there is far more expectations on players who sign for Top 14 or Engl Prem clubs to get value for the huge salaries. NZR get alot wrong but keeping their best players in NZ rugby is not one of them. SA clubs are virtually devoid of their top players now, no thanks. They cant threaten the big teams in the Champions Cup, the squads have little depth. Cant see Canes/Chiefs struggling. Super has been great this year, fantastic high skill matches. Drua a fantastic addition and Jaguares will add another quality team eventually. Aus teams performing strongly and no doubt will benefit with the incentive of a Lions tour and a home RWC. Let Jordie enjoy his time with Leinster, it will allow the opportunity for another player to emerge at Canes in his absence.
13 Go to commentsLove that man, his way to despise angry little men is so funny ! 😂
6 Go to comments“South African franchises would be powerhouses if we had all our overseas based players back in situ. We would have the same unbeatable aura the Toulouses, Leinsters or Saracens of this world have had over the last decade or so.” Proof that Jake white does not understand the economics of the game in SA. Players earning abroad are not going to simply come back and represent the bulls. But they might if they have a springbok contract.
25 Go to commentsA lot of fans just joined in for the fun of it! We all admire O'Gara and what he has done for La Rochelle
6 Go to commentsThe RFU will find a way to mess this up as usual. My bet is there will be no promotion into the the Premiership, only relegation into National League One. Hopefully they won’t parachute failed clubs into the league at the expense of clubs who have battled for promotion.
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