Why They Will / Why They Won't: The NRL Top 8
It’s the time of the NRL season: when fans of the teams who made the finals start talking themselves into the possibility that their captain could be the one who lifts the Provan-Summons Trophy that fateful day in October.
Unfortunately there are usually just as many reasons why your team will probably be on the outside looking in when the balloons drop and the Tina Turner starts blaring.
Melbourne Storm
Why They Will: The Storm are the presumptive favourites. Despite the loss of potential Immortal Billy Slater to injury they haven’t missed a beat this season with his heir apparent Cameron Munster at the back. With a points differential of over 10 points per game and with 14 fewer errors than any other team over the course of the season Melbourne play the sort of mistake-free football that wins premierships.
Why They Won’t: Karma. While the Melbourne Storm were harshly dealt with for their previous salary cap breaches there are still many league fans who feel like the boys from the banks of the Yarra haven’t suffered enough. The Storm have managed one post-purge title but a second would match the two stripped for the breaches and arguably render them moot. In the waning years of Slater, Cronk and Smith this might be their best and last chance to win another.
Canberra Raiders
Why They Will: Scorching offense. The Raiders have been the surprise packet of this year’s competition – the surprise has been that they haven’t been completely rubbish. Comprised largely of cast-offs, reprobates and Englishmen, Ricky Stuart has the Raiders playing an enterprising and electric brand of footy that has seen them become the most entertaining team in the NRL. The three quarter line of Jordan Rapana, BJ Leilua and Jarrod Croker has proven to be both imaginative and explosive. Collectively they’ve scored 100 points and 19 tries more than anyone else. If any team is to prove the old saw ‘that defence wins championships’ wrong then it could be this team.
Why They Won’t: Defense. The aforementioned old saw is rusty and buggered for a reason. The Raiders have conceded more points than any other team remaining aside from the feel-good Titans. Since 1998 only four teams have won the Premiership after conceding more points than the Raiders. No team has won the premiership in the last decade with such a leaky defense. It’s doubtful the Raiders can turn this trend around but it will definitely be fun to watch them try.
Cronulla-Sutherland Sharks
Why They Will: They are overdue. Despite being in the competition since 1967 the Sharks are one of only three teams never to have won a Premiership. It’s almost cruel to think that a day one Sharks fan could have gone nearly their entire working lives without tasting a single celebratory can of Toohey’s.
Why They Won’t: Too many grubs. Michael Ennis escaped suspension for a blatant shoulder charge and is free to play the finals while Canberra’s Jack Wighton has been rubbed out for the season for a similar crime. Andrew Fifita has been censured for consorting with criminals and thought it was a good idea to advertise his support for a convicted murderer on his strapping. At this point of his career Paul Gallen is largely composed of peptides and poorly considered tweets. This team winning a Premiership would be like giving a Hopoate to all that is good and holy. No way it happens.
North Queensland Cowboys
Why They Will: Johnathan Thurston. There is very little that JT hasn’t accomplished in his illustrious career and it will be a dead heat between him and Cameron Smith to see who is named an Immortal first. Coupled with his outstanding rep career, a third Premiership would push him closer to being arguably the greatest halfback of all time. JT is a man for the big occasion and it would be fitting to see him do one more lap of honour before his career winds down.
Why They Won’t: They won it last year. Since 1998 no team has won back-to-back Premierships. Despite their loaded playing roster, the rigors of defending a title seem to be too much for even the most hardened and talented squads. Coupled with the fact that they have to play crucial games on the road it seems unlikely that Cowboys will break the streak.
Brisbane Broncos
Why They Will: Pedigree. Under Wayne Bennett the Broncos have won an NRL-best six Premierships since 1992. Bennett is the NRL’s equivalent of Yoda and seems to have perfected the knack of getting the best out of rugby league journeymen. There is just something pre-ordained about the maroon and gold running around at the pointy end of the season.
Why They Won’t: The Broncos still look to be suffering the ill-effects of last year’s Ben Hunt-inspired Grand Final meltdown. While Hunt and his partner in crime Anthony Milford are capable of fits of brilliance their inconsistent play isn’t liable to make anyone forget Langer and Walters anytime soon. The Broncos will ride Bennett’s expertise and their past success as far as it will take them but it would be surprising to see them in the decider again.
Penrith Panthers
Why They Will: Momentum. The Panthers have won their last five games by an average score of 34 – 10. New coach Anthony Griffin has his team humming on the run into the finals and while the opposition hasn’t been the stiffest the Panthers are definitely building a head of steam at the right time.
Why They Won’t: The follies of youth. The men from the Blue Mountains are loaded to the brim with some of the most exciting young talent in the game – it seems all but assured that glorious careers await the likes of Bryce Cartwright, Nathan Cleary, Tyrone Peachey and Matt Moylan. Unfortunately, the history of finals success with young players filling crucial positions is not great. The Panthers definitely have the makings of a great team but it seems safer to pencil them in for the 2018 Grand Final than this year.
Canterbury-Bankstown Bulldogs
Why They Will: Forward dominance. The Bulldogs boast an enormous starting pack featuring a gaggle of hardened rep players, two of the scariest albinos this side of Midwich and the best league player ever produced in Manurewa. That’s before they roll roughly half a tonne of Sam Kasiano and Tony Williams off the bench. As the game slows down in the finals the Dogs should be able to use their size and strength to grind down some of their flightier opposition.
Why They Won’t: Inconsistency. Despite a long history of finals success something isn’t right with this year’s vintage. On their day the Dogs have been a match for any team in the comp but they have also dropped games to the Warriors, Eels and Rabbitohs. Halves Moses Mbye and Josh Reynolds have been erratic presences and their back line appears to lack the kind of top end finishing necessary to win a Premiership. It’s possible that Des Hasler’s gruff and gravelly disciplinarian schtick has started to wear a bit thin. If the Bulldogs can’t put together a strong finals run questions might start to be asked about whether he is the man for the job.
Gold Coast Titans
Why They Will: Jarryd Hayne. At some point between dreaming about winning a Super Bowl, dreaming about winning an Olympic gold medal and dreaming about being the first Fijian to walk on the Moon it seems certain that Hayne dreamed about winning an NRL Premiership. While he made the big dance with the Eels in 2009 he has yet to secure a Premiership ring. If Hayne returned to the NRL with any intention other than stacking up those Douglas Mawsons then surely it was winning a Premiership. If he is motivated, then anything is possible including landing on the Moon or the slightly less probable: Gold Coast winning its first Premiership.
Why They Won’t: Gold Coast squeaked into the finals on the last day of the season on the back of two losses courtesy of a Wests Tigers capitulation. The Titans haven’t look like genuine playoff contenders – they wouldn’t be in the 8 if the Eels hadn’t been docked 12 points for salary cap breaches earlier in the season – and barring some Hayne magic should have their Mad Monday arrangements firmly in place.
Comments on RugbyPass
I’d be fascinated to see what other candidates you all might have for the Lions captaincy role. Let me know, below 👍
1 Go to comments“ planning for the next cycle….” Sigh ill-advised language Elton old juice bean. Ppersonally glad you self-eliminated yourself, there were better players in the position around you.
3 Go to commentsRegardless of best in world etc. Lawes was outstanding against Leinster and has been all season. Looked like three try saving turnovers. His turnovers also contributed to NH scores. Immense performance.
2 Go to commentsDickson now considered the top ref in England it appears. Good that these series are getting one NH and one SH ref.
1 Go to commentsI don’t think any coach or selector would ever rely on Blackadder being available for selection. I didn’t think it would be possible but he has easily eclipsed Ennor as they most injured player of all time. IMO a symptom of today’s game where players are required to carry at least 10kg of extra mass from when they first hit the scene in their early 20s. Some players respond well to this, maybe due to genetics allowing them to recover faster, or not having reached their peak natural weight yet, but for others the constant training to maintain their weight eats away at recovery time and they spend most of their careers injured.
4 Go to commentsThanks for the lesson Nick! I presume that targeting gaps is situational because if a ball carrier straightens the line they can't be allowed a gap to run into? It feels like you need depth if you're going to pass it wide and plenty of variety - straight running, kicks just in behind, cross kicks etc. BTW what an incredible bench Toulouse had this week. People complain about Leinster being stacked but they need to be at the very highest level.
16 Go to comments2015 was by far the best team. They have had many good backlines over the years but the 2015 team was one of the few to have an absolute world class forward pack - all of them international quality. 6 ABs, 1 future English player, and one that would have gone on to ABs had he not been forced to retire due to concussion. This current team doesn’t have the same size and experience at lock, but providing they can keep this many talented young players (who have all significantly increased their profile this year) together for another 2 years they could eclipse the 2015 team.
2 Go to commentsAnd I’ve just seen RA has topped up the offer to Paisami and extended it beyond 3 years and he’s signed. Great news
70 Go to commentsInteresting watching Amaua starting to fire. No idea why he was pulled so early against the Reds.
4 Go to commentsNice to read something positive about Vunivalu; it doesn’t happen often. I despair for rugby in Oz. Unless some form of compensation for the teams producing players is devised, there is no obvious way for us to combat poachers coming to grab players in their prime with bigger pay cheques. A return to the SR crowds we were getting in 2010-2014 and a quadrupling of the TV deal would be a start but I don’t see how those things happen. Perhaps the government could be encouraged to deliver tax breaks like in Ireland?
70 Go to commentsI wasn’t aware that the blitz targeted space so, as usual, something learned from reading one of your articles, Nick. Watching the game live I attributed the Saints’ inaccuracy to their own mistakes and nerves. Perhaps some credit to the Leinster D.
16 Go to commentsGotta give it to you Graham, you support your players and team to the hilt. There may be strains of exaggeration laced throughout but gotta love the passionate parochialism.
2 Go to commentsNice one Nick. No doubt Vunivalu’s involvements and work rate are improving this year in attack, but I still think he is too raw on the defensive and backfield part of his game to be considered as a starter. Wales would just kick and run it to his side all night as the brumbies have done to good effect in the past. But, his size/power will keep him in the convo with Mark N leaving and Petaia’s injury record. Hunter definitely enjoying an injury-free run this season and being given the keys by Kiss - I have always been a fan of his. All I’d say is that his triple threat has been evident since 2020/21. I remember him making a grubber for a petaia try after the siren to beat the Brumbies in Canberra after the 80th minute in 2021. Lastly, Jock Campbell, who I know isn’t at the top of your list, I thought had alot of positive involvements in the saders game including both of Tim ryan’s tries and Mcreights
70 Go to commentsAg please, Pieter Stef Du Toit has played circles around this clown.
2 Go to commentsJust celebrating the Bok’s 1648th consecutive day as RWC champions. They are also the Qatar Airways Cup winners, which I know BennieBoy cares about a lot.
2 Go to commentsGood to here positive stories towards Aus Rugby. Although that might be the case, and highers up are right about Jordie, I wouldn’t stress trying to retain him. What I have seen of him in recent times is that he’s not using that something special. I feel there a better ‘something special’ options coming through that they won’t have to compete with league for, hell even in Kerevi and Paisami (isn’t it great to finally see his ability getting recognized, probably taking this article in isolation too much here).
70 Go to commentsgreat article! I wonder whether we will we see Ireland adopt the Nienaber blitz? All the teams who have tried it so far (SA included) have gone through significant teething problems in the first season; Ireland could possibly be in the unique position of being able to switch to a hard blitz in season 2 of a world cup cycle and already have so many players used to the system that it can be implemented seamlessly.
16 Go to commentsThey probably left another 20 on the field to be fair. Also - the officiating was… ordinary.
1 Go to commentsblackadder isnt a key player at all you cant say hes been the best player or a key all black when hes injured every week
4 Go to commentsThat loss to the Blues still stings! The Reds have fallen short in 4 of the 6 games decided by 7 points or fewer. Are they not fit enough to close out the close games or are there tactical issues when games go down to the wire? The pleasing thing is no Australian side can better the Reds record of 3 wins from 5 against Kiwi sides but the Brumbies can match it. Les Kiss has instilled a belief in the Reds that they can match it with all the New Zealand sides.
70 Go to comments