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LONG READ Will Vern Cotter succumb to second season Blues in Auckland?

Will Vern Cotter succumb to second season Blues in Auckland?
2 weeks ago

The inner streak of blue steel has been a long time coming. The door of opportunity has opened invitingly, then been slammed shut on the Blues on too many occasions to mention for the Auckland faithful. Never more so than in 2022, when the Blues lost just one regular season game only to fall at the final hurdle to perennial champs, and their bête rouge et noir, the Crusaders.

A champion mentality is not easy to build. Winning games is one thing, winning championships is another altogether. After one more season of ‘close, but no cigar’ head coach Leon McDonald left for All Black pastures new, to be replaced by ‘Stern Vern’ Cotter.

Cotter had spent most of his previous playing and coaching life in France – 10 years as a player amid the tribal infighting and internecine rivalries of southwest townships; eight seasons with Clermont in the Auvergne and a couple more with Montpellier in the Hérault department as a coach, bookending a three-year stint with the Scotland national team [2014-2017].

Getty
Vern Cotter guided the Blues to the Super Rugby Pacific title in his first year at the helm (Photo by Hannah Peters/Getty Images)

When he was appointed supremo of the Blues last year, Cotter was exactly the right man to supply the missing ingredient for the Cinderellas of the game in New Zealand. If the school of French rugby had taught the man with les yeux de glace anything, it was that toughness, mental and physical, was essential to survival.

“I used to think I was a reasonably physical player, but I was a baby,” Cotter said. “France was a total eye-opener for me. Every match would start with a 10-minute fight, and after that was over, you would know who was going to win the game.

“It wasn’t just a game. I learned a lot about character and defending the jersey. I enjoyed the fact that you were playing for your town and your colours. You couldn’t help but get swept away.

“The French flair – I used to laugh at that. It wasn’t true. Overlaps were created because two forward packs were generally having a good whack at each other.”

In one game he recalls punching man mountain Olivier Merle so hard the lock nicknamed Le Massif Central looked up in surprise: “He laughed… he just laughed at me.”

Cotter’s coaching philosophy was carved out of the rocky Pyrenean foothills of Lourdes as a player, and his experiences gave him an intimate knowledge of what it takes to win competitions in France. He became the first coach in Clermont history to win the Top 14’s Bouclier de Brennus in 2010, and under his watch the Stade Marcel Michelin became a fortress, with the club from the Auvergne winning a record 77 consecutive games at their home citadel over four seasons.

When took charge of the Blues, he brought a flint-hard understanding the fate of most rugby games is decided close to source: at the scrum, in the maul and the collisions close to the ruck. As his general manager at Clermont, Neil McIlroy observed: “Vern knows how central the scrum is to the way the French see the game, that it’s where it all starts for French players because in France if you lose that, you’ll likely lose the game.

“Vern will know that this emphasis on the scrum can be a negative – the French front row will be so hell-bent on dominating there that they won’t be thinking about anything else…

“If you look at Toulouse: everyone says they’re a great team that can play with the ball and move into space, but they only do it because they win collisions and have a good forward pack.”

Read between the lines of Cotter and McIlroy’s comments and extract the pith, and you will feel the vibe Stern Vern brought back with him to Auckland:

Overlaps were created because two forward packs were generally having a good whack at each other…

Vern knows how central the scrum is…if you lose that, you will likely lose the game.

Toulouse play with the ball and move into space, but only because they win collisions.

En route to Cotter’s crushing 41-13 victory over the Chiefs in the 2024 final, his new iteration of the Blues was set on rock-solid tactical foundations:

  • The Blues won +21 penalties at the scrum, second behind the Crusaders [+26] and ranking just ahead of the Hurricanes [+16].
  • The Blues were the only franchise to average over 19 minutes of active time of possession, the sole club to build over 100 rucks per game [107], and the only side to average more than 65% of lightning quick ball [0-3 seconds] from them.
  • The Blues stressed high quality close carries and hard cleans over the top of them: 18 pick & goes [1st], and 52 one-out drives per game [1st]. Collectively the Blues went straight up the guts of the defence 13 more times per game than the next side, the Queensland Reds.

One of the teams running closest to the Blues last year, in aspects such as scrum penalties for and post-contact metres earned off carries close to the ruck, were the Hurricanes, and the two sides met in round three of the 2025 tournament at the Cake Tin.

The fate of the game was effectively decided by a modern, updated version of Cotter’s experience in France: ‘Every match would start with a 10-minute fight, and after that was over, you would know who was going to win the game.’ At the Cake Tin the fight was a legal battle in the scrum, and after the opening 20 minutes everybody knew the Blues had won it, hands-down.

One of the curiosities of that individual victory is the Blues have the lightest front row of any of the Kiwi franchises.

In an era when 130-140kg monsters like Ethan De Groot, Tyrel Lomax, Tamaiti Williams and Pasilio Tosi are becoming the norm, the Blues’ starting tight-head prop Marcel Renata looks slightly undernourished. But make no mistake, Renata knows his trade, and he has the kind of awkward body shape which makes him a nightmare for opponents.

Xavier Numia is one of the most promising young props in the country, but he could make nothing of Renata. At the very first set-piece, the Hurricanes looked to apply the second shove, but they were under such pressure their hooker could not even scrape the ball back to the base.

 

The Canes want a long scrum, and an easy ‘out’ via penalty from a position close to their own goalline, but the Blues scrum does not budge one solitary inch and the ball sits stubbornly in the centre of the tunnel. Eventually, it is Numia who goes to ground first in the jaws of nutcracker.

The difficulties the Hurricanes loosehead was experiencing were only underlined by the next two set-pieces.

 

 

There was no direct reward for Renata at these two scrums, but the next reset was a Blues penalty, and four minutes later Numia left the field on a yellow card for an early tackle. For a front row used to dominating at scrum-time, a sudden reversal of fortune can come as a crushing psychological blow, one which adversely affects other parts of their game. Remember McIlroy’s words? “The French front row will be so hell-bent on dominating there that they won’t be thinking about anything else.”

Renata showed no mercy to Numia’s replacement Pouri Rakete-Stones at the very next set-piece.

 

Only one minute into his stint off the pine, and Rakete-Stones was back on the bench on a yellow card. There may be fewer scrums in the modern game than ever before, but the mental-emotional impact of success or failure at the set-piece filters like a slow poison into every other physical aspect of the contest. It was fitting the game was decided by scrum penalty.

 

The only way Rakete-Stones can establish any ascendancy is by shifting sideways first, and he is correctly pinged for stepping outside his opponent Angus Ta’avao by referee Angus Gardner.

It was fascinating to watch how Stern Vern’s charges doubled down on their dominance in one of the major physical aspects of the game by driving straight over the top in another – on the carry.

 

 

There is no urge to fling the ball along the line with gay abandon once the physical battle has been won – if you move the ball out on one play bring it back up the guts on the next. Keep pounding that rock, until it turns to powder.

The town of Lourdes at the base of the Pyrenees may be a shrine of healing waters for many, but for Cotter it was where his rugby mentality was forged – in the molten steel of village rivalries. When that steel turned blue, he brought it back to Auckland and gave the North Island franchise a hard edge they had been lacking.

The Blues will not go quietly into that good night in 2025 – far from it. Their basics, tactical and technical, are too sound for that to happen. They will be in the fight to the last, and those icy eyes will be monitoring their every move. No sophomore slump, no second season blues for these Blues, not as long as Stern Vern is in charge.

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63 Comments
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frandinand 13 days ago

Its interesting how little comment there has been here on how well the Brumbies performed and even more to the point how their coaching team devised a plan to beat the Blues.


I feel there has been too much emphasis on how badly the Blues played and not how well the Brumbies performed.


Perhaps we should be giving some praise to Larkham .

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JW 13 days ago

Most readers and commentors have come and gone before that game fran. You also have to click where it says “Top” and change it to newest.


A few Brumbies pushing their case for when others return.

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BH 14 days ago

I wonder what the Blues stats are like for lineouts and scrums so far this season? It seems like they’re not as dominant compared to last season.


The Brumbies clearly won the scrum battle last night while the Blues’ lineout was sloppy on their own throws.

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NB 14 days ago

I think the single biggest stat is that their rucks are down to 87 per game, and seven other teams had built more….

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Mitch 15 days ago

Before a ball had been kicked this season, Morgan Turinui mentioned Vern Cotter as a possible Wallabies coach. The Blues have won just once since then, losing 3 games including tonight's loss to the Brumbies. I call it the Morgan Turinui curse.

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NB 15 days ago

He’s taken a ‘Turinui Tumble’ Mitch🤣

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JW 15 days ago

I’m actually looking forward to Beauden playing playing 10 this week. Plummer being Plummer just isn’t enough when the team is playing like this, I hope he can displace Beauden afterwards, even just for a short stretch of good games. I see BB as 3rd choice 10 backup now, and likely bench utility (Dmac to 15 and Jordan to wing).now more than the impact at 15 or starter he was last year, so getting him playing 10 in 20min bursts is imperative to his successful contribution imo. I really hope Vern tells him to play the Blues way and put the boot away either side of halfway (like a long way either side).

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frandinand 14 days ago

For all the reports of BBs brilliance in the first half I thought once again his tactical kicking was aimless.


And his goal kicking appalling.


Two of the key tasks a number 10 needs to perform and once again he is not up to it.

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NB 15 days ago

Who is playing 15? And where is Zarn Sullivan, he looked to be a good un?😁

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ja 15 days ago

Hi Nic, great article as always! I don’t often comment, but I have been reading your articles for the last couple of years and loving them. They are a highlight of my week, enjoyed over coffee in the morning. The level of insight you bring is phenomenal, please keep them coming!

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NB 15 days ago

Thanks Ja good to hear it👍

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Bull Shark 15 days ago

The highlight of my week also involves the morning, coffee, a bran muffin, a cigarette and one of Nick’s articles.


Heavenly.

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JW 16 days ago

Haha I’m/was just thinking ‘Yes! So many people bring up the all All Black back row as what gave the Blues dominance’ and I’m always ‘Tut tut, it was the nameless tight five were they had the strength and heart’, and here I thought you were highlighting this very fact last year, but when I saw the none scrum highlights/clips, I realised you were actually referring to this years clash?!


Still, while that All Black back row did a mountain of work, I stand by the tight five, and the unheralded front row as being the real difference and key last year. Really happy for Riccitelli to be putting in another year of good performances too (even ‘great’ this year?).


I’m afraid the teams going to do this article and the French “flair” a disservice this year. It’s going to be nowhere near enough.

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NB 16 days ago

I don’t expect the Blues to repeat, but I do expect them to be in the argument at the pointy end of the season.


Guys like Riccitelli and Renata are well worth the shout, and I like the look of the new second row Josh Beehre too. The Blues have too many good players not to make a stout defence this year.

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OJohn 16 days ago

The answer to this question is yes. Stern Vern is a one trick pony. Doesn’t last long.

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NB 16 days ago

Far from it. He’s well travelled and has tasted success in at least three diff countries.

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Mzilikazi 16 days ago

An interesting question to debate, Nick. I suspect at the heels of the hunt, the Blues will have a tougher road to tread this year, should they end up winning the Super Rugby trophy. The Chiefs at this stage look to be the team that will mount a strong challenge, and Clayton McMillan will want to a) avenge last years final defeat, and b) go out with a blaze of glory to his new home in “an Mhumhain”.


Whilst the Hurricanes are not as strong in NZ this year, both the Highlanders and Moana Pasifika are stronger, with the former looking to be a tough assignment for anyone down in Dunedin, as the Blues discovered in round two. In Australia, one hopes our teams will be more of a challenge, but that remains to be seen. Looking at the accuracy of the NZ teams at the breakdown, and their ability to score off any spilled balls/quick turnovers etc, none of our teams inspire full confidence, I feel. The Brumbies have already gone down to the Chiefs, and the Reds down in Christchurch this weekend will be tested, I fear. Would like to LSL fit again. He is an important player.


Vern Cotter is one of those coaches who has not played for the AB’s, not for one of the major teams either. Shows that one does not have to have been an elite level player at the top to make a good coach. Really enjoyed those scrum clips. That is formidable scrummaging. The Blues pack remains very tight and cohesive.


Marcel Renata. Your description of him and his body shape brings to mind W. P. Nel, Scotland’s SA born TH over several years. He was very much in that same mold. Quietly very effective disrupter of scrums, hard to prop against.


I had a look at Renata’s background and was interested in this: “In early 2024, Renata had the middle finger of his right hand electively amputated at the knuckle due to persistent medical problems after the finger had been dislocated.”


I taught for several years with Irish wing Stephen Blake Knox, and he had dislocated a little finger which stuck out, and was a bt of an impediment. Post match one Sat. a surgeon in the clubhouse, over a few drinks, Said to SBK “Come and see me next week and I will take that off for you”. SBk declined, and last time I saw him, still had the little finger.

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NB 16 days ago

Yes it will be tougher for them unquestionably Miz. You could see the work the Chiefs had put into their prep in round one.


There’s a sense of evenness to the comp in 2025 which has not been there for many a season - the big tests for Aussie teams are still to come but I suspect they will be better, a lot better. The Reds will be a litmus test of how far they have come as they have strengthened their tight five considerably.


Renata is not big but he’s very compact from neck to hip and therein lies his strength - you see how easily he slips off Numia’s shoulder and splits the scrum down the left side.


Dislocated fingers can be a problem eh? I had a couple when I played and one took ages to feel properly normal again. It kept on pointing east when I wanted it to point south! That happened in a maul.

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Andrew Nichols 16 days ago

Gosh..Win one game and had the ref rewarded the Canes shove at that last scrum ….The season so far for the Blues shows a side rigidly sticking to what worked last year and beingpuzzled that sides have changed tactics to counter that.

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JD Kiwi 15 days ago

Of course we have to remember that the best tighthead around was absent from the Canes scrum

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Mitch 16 days ago

If the ref rewarded the Canes at that last scrum, he would have been rewarding illegal dominance.

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JW 16 days ago

Canes stuffed it up but should have gone to the scrum. Ref doesn’t deserve even being mentioned.

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NB 16 days ago

Why would the ref reward that last shove though Andrew? The diff between that one and the Blues’ efforts was self-evident. The Blues went straight ahead.


I agree teams are making far greater efforts to reduce the Blues time in possession this season, but they are prob good enough to adapt, esp when they get some injured back.

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dw 16 days ago

Great. So how do the Brumbies win this week!? I’m hoping our scrum can do okay. The Blues do look pretty solid in these clips

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NB 16 days ago

It will start with the scrum and those hard carries DW. The Brumbies scrum has been questionable in recent seasons so they need to step up there.

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