LONG READ What is the future of rugby in 2025?

Taking the road less travelled makes all the difference. When a fork in the road looms ahead, the right course can often lie on the most unexpected path. Rugby in 2025 will need to learn to expected the unexpected and follow its nose to the right destination in the New Year.

Last week I was sent a report by World Rugby consultant and a prominent ex-referee of the amateur era, Corris Thomas. Back in the day, Corris was always one of the most progressive officials, looking to minimise the number of penalties in a game by reducing them to ‘material’ offences which concretely affected the outcome of a play. Matches refereed by Mr Thomas tended to be free-flowing, and the players had to quickly learn to be ‘comfortable in chaos’. The concept of materiality has not only survived, it has thrived among the best referees in professional times.

His report focused on the 2021 Women’s World Cup in New Zealand [played one year later in November 2022], arguably the most exciting and dramatic of international competitions, male or female, in recent memory. Although the Black Ferns had won five of the previous six World Cups, they were no longer the tournament favourites, having been overtaken by the only two professional nations on planet rugby at the time, England and France.

They had first been beaten by France and then trounced by the Red Roses on tour in November 2021, by a combined score over two matches of 99-27. That had prompted considerable soul-searching in the shaky isles, some root-and-branch reform and the installation of Sir Wayne Smith as head coach.

While England’s women were approximating the kind of stats you typically see in the men’s version, the Professor’s solution was to strip New Zealand rugby back to its heartbeat in the running and passing games. Corris takes up the story:

“New Zealand brought a strategy and playing approach to the tournament that was unique to them. It was a game that revolved around distributing the ball at pace, in all parts of the pitch, by all players with the set pieces seen more as sources of distributable ball than vehicles of attrition.

1. Making twice as many passes as their opponents
2. Rucking at the highest rate both at the pool and knockout stages
3. Kicking by far the least
4. Mauling the least”

Over six matches, the Black Ferns set 14 mauls compared to 52 by the Red Roses. In a pleasing symmetry, England mauled 71% of their lineout throw while New Zealand shifted the same percentage of ball won through their backs. England tapped one in 15 penalties, New Zealand tapped one in three.

Thomas notes: “One in three of New Zealand’s kicks were chips or grubbers with 57% kicked into opposition territory: England’s rate was one in seven grubber and chips and over 80% kicked into opponents’ territory.”

This unusually clear differentiation of national characteristics and preferences extended to France also. The French had by far the best defence in the tournament, conceding only five tries and 46 points over six games. They also kicked more than everyone else, with their scrum-half kicking away one in every nine possessions compared to one in 56 by the Black Ferns.

The contrast in styles resulted in one of the most enthralling tournaments and two of the closest finishes in World Cup history. Both the Ferns’ semi-final against France and their final versus England were won and lost on the very last play. The ability to win by playing the running rugby of his dreams blessed ‘Smithy’ with one of the most memorable experiences of even his long and distinguished career.

“I have never been prouder of [any] team,” he said. “We just wanted to go out and play and be true to our DNA.

“To see Eden Park packed for the Black Ferns, I never thought I would see that in 100 years.

“That was the most phenomenal moment of my career, listening to ‘Black Ferns, Black Ferns, Black Ferns’ at Eden Park.

“This will go down as one of the great experiences of my life.”

The tournament sent ripples out into the future of the game like doves from the ark. Which way will the rugby world reach under pressure? Towards more forward power, more iron defence and playing for territory with the kicking game; or towards speed and continuity, “the distribution of the ball at pace, in all parts of the pitch, by all players”?

Will the set-pieces develop further as restarts geared to producing usable ball for attack, or remain stuck as ‘vehicles of attrition’? Does the final of men’s game in 2023, with one try and 23 points scored, or the final of the women’s in 2022, featuring 11 tries and 65 points, present a truer picture of what is to come?

In the men’s club/provincial game, there are plenty of green sprigs of optimistic holly, and it is largely a function of the English Premiership’s shift towards a Black Ferns mindset. The loss of three professional clubs has shaken the game to its spine in the UK, and highlighted the need to provide more entertainment and scoring, more bang for the spectator’s buck.

Ironically the most successful league at attracting investment and sponsorship, France’s Top 14, also provides the most modest spectacle, with the lowest ball in play time and the most penalties awarded [eight] per try scored. The Premiership is summoning the old spirit of Super Rugby more quickly than any domestic competition up north, with one try scored for every five penalties awarded and the Bristol Bears matching the Blues’ record of just over five tries per game scored. The URC is a fascinating crucible of the game’s development, with a South African attritional ‘handbrake’ applied to traditional free-scorers such as Leinster and Glasgow.

Last weekend’s match between Leicester Tigers and Bristol showcased the new spirit in the Prem perfectly. Michael Cheika’s Tigers were coming off a 50-point thrashing of the Sharks, but found themselves on the receiving end of a 54-24 beating in front of their own incredulous supporters at citadel Welford Road. The Bears had scored six tries by half-time, fulfilling all the Professor’s precepts in the process.

Within the first 40 minutes Bristol had blown away any cobwebbed notions the away team has to turn up to forbidding fortresses such as Welford Road and grimly grind out a result. By half-time they had launched five attacks from a start point within their own 22, and another two from between the 22 and their own side of halfway. They made 21 offloads in the game, and it can take a less ambitious attack-oriented club than the Bears eight or 10 matches to reach that figure.

As the first clip shows, Bristol can slip in and out of structure at will, with a couple of offloads on the first phase setting up a deliciously-delayed pass by 10 AJ MacGinty to his two front-rowers in the second. Bristol’s fourth try followed the same pattern.

An offload from outstanding number 11 Gabriel Ibitoye sets up the break for 13 Kalaveti Ravouvou initially, and a second Fijian, number eight Bill Mata finishes off on the second phase.

The most dramatic brushstroke on the West Country canvas occurred in the 35^th minute, beginning with yet another counter from the Bears’ own goalline.

No fewer than three passes in or just before contact unlock the Tigers’ defence for the initial bust by Ibitoye, and another over-the-top basketball offload provides the finishing touch from the wingman to full-back Rich Lane to complete a length-of-the-field score.

When Smith watches a Bristol team coached by Pat Lam playing rugby from anywhere, grasping the nettle of attacking opportunity regardless of field position, it must bring a broad grin to his face. It is an example of rugby following the fork in the road signposted by the Black Ferns.

Rugby in 2025 would do well to heed the lesson, and focus on enhancing the use of the set-piece as ‘sources of distributable ball’ rather than simple ‘vehicles of attrition’. There is still a place for romance in the game’s soul, and that is where the secret of new growth in rugby can be nurtured.