LONG READ Was Dublin drubbing the end of an era or a bump in the road for Ireland?

Aside from Dublin 4 being transformed into a Montmarte mosh for a few hours on Saturday afternoon, there was an unusual atmosphere around Lansdowne Road. French fans had descended upon Aviva Stadium in their festooned thousands and out-sang the home support all day. Their team took the best Ireland could throw at them early on, and ram-raided it back.

Post-match, beaten Ireland captain Caelan Doris reflected on ‘that middle 25 minutes’ of the second half, as if it was a minor blip. It was the ball-game. Ireland were 13-8 ahead after 45 minutes. They won the final five minutes 14-0. The problem was, France won that ‘middle 25 minutes’ of the second half by a preposterous 34-0 (four converted tries, two penalties).

When the match ended and Ireland’s Grand Slam hopes lay in ruin, all most of us could remember were those 25 minutes of French attacking carnage. Up in the press box, not long after Ireland trudged off, I caught the eye of a colleague who has been following this team closely for more than three decades. We grimaced at each other and, as he passed, he remarked, “That’s us back in our box.”

Such was the punishing nature of France’s victory, Dublin had an air of finality to it. It was the end of Ireland’s bid for three-in-a-row championship history. We would not be seeing stalwarts Peter O’Mahony, Cian Healy and Conor Murray at this venue, in a green jersey, again. To re-emphasise that changing of the guard vibe, Johnny Sexton was down near the pitch in his Ireland tracksuit as part of the coaching staff.

“We had a good run,” was heard far too often. This was something I had flagged last November, when New Zealand beat Andy Farrell’s side. The glass was half full but many needed convincing it was half empty. Six wins in a row filled it back up, but France tipped that glass right over.

A growing number of supporters fear Ireland are in for a tough few years. They have valid reasons to believe a downturn may be coming. It has been claimed Ireland’s golden era ‘is coming to a close’. I am not as pessimistic. Before I dig into my reasons why, let us look at the portents of a potential slide.

Glass half empty

The biggest blow to Ireland missing out on a Grand Slam and, with it, a likely championship is financial. Sweeping the board for the second time in three years would have bagged Ireland prize money of just under €9 million. Ireland now find themselves third in the Six Nations table. If they finish the championship in that position, they would win €3m. The IRFU would not have spent that money before it was lodged, but that France defeat may end up costing the union €6m. The provinces and clubs will feel a greater pinch as a result.

Even with O’Mahony, Murray and Healy soon to depart, Ireland still have a heavy proportion of players over 30. If you were to select their best XV right now, chances are you would hit upon a team with 10 players over 30 at the 2027 World Cup.

When Farrell and Simon Easterby have named squads, there have been few omissions one would call glaring. Leinster had 22 of 36 selections in Easterby’s initial Six Nations group, so their fans are content. Between Munster, Connacht and Ulster, you could probably muster cases for Thomas Ahern, John Hodnett, David McCann, Harry Sheridan and Ben Murphy. The door is not exactly being banged down. Leinster are strong in the URC and Champions Cup, but their inter-provincial rivals have endured rough stretches. Munster’s league win, under Graham Rowntree, came in May 2023 but feels like five years ago. Ulster are in a period of hard transition while Connacht get by on a mix of youth, local lads, bargain imports, sevens flyers and former Leinster players.

World Rugby’s change to the eligibility criteria for foreign players – five years of ‘unbroken residency’ now required – has seen Ireland, and other unions, change recruitment plans. James Lowe (in November 2020) was the last project player capped by Ireland. The team’s point of difference over the past decade has often been players such as Lowe, Bundee Aki, Jared Payne or Jamison Gibson-Park. French clubs continue to scout abroad for increasingly younger players, while Ireland are back scouring family trees and lineage to find maternal and paternal connections (see: Mack Hansen, Sean O’Brien, Aidan Morgan).

Another area of concern is one the IRFU started to address through performance director David Nucifora and now David Humphreys. With Ireland U20s struggling in this year’s Six Nations, coach Neil Doak pointed out that English and French players were getting meaningful minutes in the Premiership Cup, Premiership, Top 14 and even Champions Cup. Unless a young Irish player shows truly exceptional qualities – think Sam Prendergast, Jamie Osborne or James Ryan here – they must bide their time at the provinces. They usually only start getting decent minutes at the ages of 22 or 23. The IRFU has arranged Emerging Ireland tours to South Africa and a recent A game against England, but there remains a backlog of potential Test stars not getting enough games at a crucial stage in their careers.

There are also worries, within the game, funding cuts for sevens may be coming down the line, as the union seeks to prioritise men’s and women’s XVs. Test players such as Hugo Keenan, Nick Timoney, Jimmy O’Brien and Cormac Izuchukwu have all benefitted from sevens stints. At a time when Ireland are struggling for pace in the wide channels, investing away from sevens may prove costly in other areas.

Glass half full

Laying out all of the above has brought on palpitations, but it is time for the positives.

Ireland have won three of the past six editions of U20 Six Nations, all in Grand Slam style. They reached the U20 World Rugby Championship final in 2023 and the semi-final last year. Top prospects are still being produced and players capped are more spread out than Ireland’s Leinster-heavy senior squad. From the 2022 Grand Slam squad, Charlie Tector, Jack Boyle, Matthew Devine, Jude Postlethwaite and James McNabney are all getting regular game time at their provinces, with Boyle already capped at Test level. From the 2023 crop, Sam Prendergast and Gus McCarthy were fast-tracked into the senior Ireland team within 18 months of their Slam.

Diarmuid Mangan was called into Ireland squad during this Six Nations window. Ben O’Connor, Hugh Cooney, Andrew Osborne (Jamie’s brother), Brian Gleeson, Hugh Gavin, Evan O’Connell and Paddy McCarthy will be pushing for call-ups when Ireland play Georgia, Romania and Portugal in the summer.

Ireland are inextricably linked with Leinster, for good and bad. Farrell and Easterby have drawn great performances and results from Ireland teams chock-full of Leinster men. Since 2017/18, Leinster have reached five Champions Cup finals and won four league titles. They have, unfortunately, lost four of those Champions Cup finals, being outmuscled and outlasted in the deciders. Accusations Leinster could not get over the line when it truly counted have been thrown at Ireland when they faltered, most notably the 2023 World Cup quarter-final against New Zealand.

The prizes are still to be handed out for clubs this season, but Leinster have put themselves at the head of the hunt again. Buoyed by Jordie Barrett, RG Snyman and Rabah Slimani, what if Leinster go on to claim some major silverware this season? They are more than capable of it, have shown signs of growing ruthlessness under Jacques Nienaber and the bill of health for their big Ireland stars looks good for the run-in. If Leinster can smash through the ceiling, with La Rochelle’s form indifferent and Toulouse now without Antoine Dupont, it would massively boost Ireland.

While the IRFU will take a financial hit if Ireland miss out on a third straight Six Nations title, positive signs from domestic rugby and soccer show what is capable. In October 2024, a crowd of 80,468 paid into Croke Park to see Leinster outgun Munster in the URC. Leinster’s regular home ground, the RDS, is being expanded to 20,000 capacity so the province has taken up residence at Aviva Stadium. They used the GAA headquarters for the Munster game as the Aviva was booked up for another event. They also sold out ‘Croker’ when Northampton Saints pitched up for the Champions Cup semi-finals last season. They are clear demonstrations, with Leinster pulling out all the promotional stops and sending out big-name players for press duty, fans will come if a big enough drum is banged.

Connacht have done likewise with ‘Test in the West’. They are playing Munster at MacHale Park – home of Mayo GAA – in a league fixture that quickly sold out. A crowd of more than 25,000 will head along to cheer on both sides, two weeks after the Six Nations wraps. In soccer, Bohemians took a punt when they hosted Shamrock Rovers at Aviva Stadium – away from their home ground of Dalymount Park – in their League of Ireland opener last month. Fans from both clubs flocked along for a league record attendance of 33,208.

Thinking outside the box and making big occasions out of regular games, particularly inter-pro rivalries and Champions Cup fixtures, will swell the coffers of Irish sides. If the IRFU were to somehow talk Aviva, sponsors of Lansdowne Road, into allowing Test status for games played away from Dublin 4, Ireland would easily sell out Croke Park for a game (or two). Bold steps are needed, even more so during this period when the Irish team are held in such high regard.

The final reason to be hopeful returns to the Ireland team in the autumn: Farrell. The Englishman has been nothing short of an inspiration since he took over from Joe Schmidt in late 2019. Farrell built on the foundations laid by the Kiwi and brought Ireland to another level, highlighted by their series victory in New Zealand and back-to-back Six Nations titles that included a 2023 Grand Slam.

Farrell will resume Ireland duties after the British and Irish Lions wrap up their tour to Australia. There are November Tests against New Zealand, Japan, Australia and South Africa, then he will be hell-bent on Ireland reasserting themselves in the Six Nations.