All being well Maro Itoje will win his 100th England cap at the midway point of the Six Nations Championship.
He is already a Test centurion, of course, by dint of his nine Lions caps, but the Ireland game on 21 February should see him become just the ninth player in history to reach that landmark for England.
All being well. What happens, God forbid, if Itoje has a mishap?
The 31-year-old, as automatic a selection as there exists for any side in Test rugby, is such an assumed presence that it is almost unthinkable to imagine a Six Nations game without him.
He has started the last 30 for England. The last time he missed one was in the 2018/19 season. His injury record, in such a physical position as second-row, is incredible.

But Steve Borthwick would not be Steve Borthwick if he had not given some thought to what happens if his captain goes down during the championship.
It is not quite as simple as the next cab off the rank.
The man who started last season’s championship alongside Itoje, George Martin, is a long-term injury absentee.
Bath’s Charlie Ewels, a reliable stand-in lock for England down the years, is also out of action.
His most likely combination would be Ollie Chessum, who toured as a Lion with Itoje last summer, and Alex Coles, who has been in fine form for Northampton.
So Borthwick, a habitual scenario planner, would need to be a little more creative.
His most likely combination would be Ollie Chessum, who toured as a Lion with Itoje last summer, and Alex Coles, who has been in fine form for Northampton.
This was the duo he went for against Fiji in the autumn when Itoje was used as a replacement.
When he names his squad on Friday for the championship, those two are sure to be included. The alternatives he will have sifted through are varied.
Saracens’ Nick Isiekwe started the First Test against Argentina last summer. Gloucester’s Arthur Clark also travelled on that tour.
When England A played New Zealand’s second-string in the autumn, Borthwick was able to take a look at Bristol’s workhorse Joe Batley and the up-and-coming Tom Lockett from Northampton.

The following week, when they played Spain, Sale’s Ben Bamber and Saracens’ Olamide Sodeke were given a run, with Bath’s Ewan Richards used off the bench.
Borthwick has even shown a taste for deploying Chandler Cunningham-South as a second-row – although that has been exclusively off the bench.
England, as ever, are not short of players. The fact remains though that for all those possibilities, England do not have another Itoje.
For me, the biggest problem for England is that there aren’t many bulky thugs. That Will Skelton, Emmanuel Meafou, Romain Taofifenua, Eben Etzebeth figure.
World Cup-winning second-row Ben Kay’s assessment is that while his absence would not be an issue against lesser sides, it would present a huge problem against the very best.
“There are plenty of areas within the England squad where there is almost too much choice, but lock isn’t one of them,” said Kay.
“I’m really starting to become a big fan of Ben Bamber at club level – I think there is a step up to international level but that’s not to say he couldn’t do it. Joe Batley is another one I really like.
“But, for me, the biggest problem for England is that there aren’t many bulky thugs. That Will Skelton, Emmanuel Meafou, Romain Taofifenua, Eben Etzebeth figure. George Martin was a massive loss. He has had a lot of injury problems but if you look at how he played at the World Cup, that was where he was being positioned.
“Because of the size of Itoje and Chessum, you can hide that and not have that style of player, even though they are not out and out enforcers.
“If you lose Itoje, you can put two really good second-rows in there – Chessum and Coles, say – but you are then starting to depower the side, particularly given England do not have massive props.

“That’s fine when you are playing against even the likes of New Zealand, it’s when you are coming up against sides that have that sort of player like France and South Africa that it becomes a problem.”
There are a handful of players whose value counts double, treble even. Itoje, like Kay’s old Tigers sparring partner Martin Johnson before him, now fits into that bracket.
Itoje is different from Johnson temperamentally – there have been fewer run-ins with the disciplinary beaks in his career – but he has evolved into a comparable totem figure.
His physical attributes have always been there as a strangling second-row of the highest order and lineout giant but now he has shown his value as a leader too, he has become even more of an irreplaceable presence.
When he was substituted against Argentina in November because of the knee injury that would keep him out for six weeks, it was the first time he had been replaced in an England Test since July 2022. It was proof he is human.
Eddie Jones never viewed him as captaincy material but his calm authority since Borthwick turned to him has been impressive.
In the same moment he has managed to be both wise owl and warrior.
With the unique swirling crosswinds of the Six Nations about to blow again, England should not take for granted how fortunate they are to have a leader of boundless stamina that they can rely on to stay the course.
When he was substituted against Argentina in November because of the knee injury that would keep him out for six weeks, it was the first time he had been replaced in an England international since July 2022. It was proof that he is human.
England would be wise to at least consider a Six Nations Plan B – not that Borthwick would want to use it.
The memory scrolls back to 2000 and England’s failed Grand Slam mission in Edinburgh. Clive Woodward opted to go into the game without Johnson, who was fit but had missed the preceding four matches in the championship through injury, and England lost to the Scots on a Murrayfield skidpan.

The England coach stuck with Garath Archer and Simon Shaw as his second-row pairing instead and the game duly unravelled.
If the 2026 championship comes down to a Grand Slam shootout against France in Paris on the final weekend, there are no circumstances under which Borthwick would voluntarily do without his captain.
Itoje is just too important to the mission.
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There has been a remarkable turnaround with England since Itoje became captain and I think this would likely be the biggest area of impact, for a player that has arguably been our best individual player for a number of seasons.
If you want the next best combination of players, it would likely be Dave Ribbans & Ollie Chessum but there is an eligibility issue that gets in the way, followed by Chessum/Martin.
There has been a bit of a question regarding who best fills that bench spot but I think the ever improving Alex Coles is starting to get there, so helps fill the void but Itoje is key for England over the next couple of years.