Why this painful Scotland loss to New Zealand hits 'different'

Some might regard it as slightly perverse to want to expose yourself again to the fresh agonies Scotland suffered at the hands of New Zealand on Saturday.

A 21st successive defeat in meetings between the two ‘frenemies’ since 1983, a 32nd match without victory in the fixture since 1905, another coulda-shoulda-woulda near-miss to add to the litany of heartbreak for the last 120 years.

There may be much admiration, respect and social heritage between the two countries – it was not an accident the All Blacks were the opposition for the official celebration of Murrayfield’s 100th anniversary – but the narrative remains stubbornly the same.

Under Gregor Townsend, this was a third time in eight years when Scotland supporters were given genuine reason to believe history was there for the changing, only for New Zealand to ruthlessly snuff out that hope in trademark, brutal fashion.

In 2017 it was a late comeback and a last-ditch bid for glory, denied by Beauden Barrett’s tackle on Stuart Hogg. In 2022 it was a composed comeback from an early 14-0 deficit and sustained excellence to build a nine-point lead before the All Blacks’ greater reserves of quality prevailed. On Saturday there was another dizzying comeback, from 17-0 down, but not the clarity or execution to see it through. New Zealand, senses scrambled, bounced off the ropes to deliver the late, knockout blow.

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Scotland captain Sione Tuipulotu was visibly emotional as he attempted to dissect what he had just experienced, and Townsend, too, didn’t attempt to hide his obvious disappointment.

“A lot goes into a performance, not just 80 minutes, a whole week,” Townsend noted. “It’ll take a wee while to get over. Whether they show it or not, I’m sure they’ll be thinking about it in the next couple of days.

“It felt a different game than the last two. It felt like there were periods there when we were the dominant side and I don’t think we were dominant even in 2022.

“We were so physical, so dominant in the 22 for long periods. I don’t think 17-0 reflected the score at half-time with the chances we had and obviously they’d scored right before half-time, but the second half I think reflected our dominance, that we were creating those opportunities, taking them and maybe should have taken a couple more.

“I think that was a better performance than the last two, but even more frustrating.”

The glut of missed opportunities when Scotland were either over the line – Darcy Graham and Rory Hutchinson in the first half, Graham again in the second – or just short of it, with Ben White and Pierre Schoeman both denied in the same passage a few minutes before Cam Roigaard’s last-ditch tackle on Graham, will cause Caledonian consternation for a good while yet.

But Townsend was already contemplating a renewal of rivalries with their perennial tormentors in 2026, when the inaugural Nations Championship will see Scotland get another crack at the All Blacks. The details of when and where that might be have yet to be officially announced, even if Townsend indicated he already has a pretty good idea.

“The Nations Cup will involve the Six Nations teams and the six teams in the southern hemisphere. One of them is New Zealand, one of them is Scotland,” he pointed out.

“The positive thing is we’re going to be playing [them]; normally it would be South Africa and Australia next November. We always get a chance to play two of the southern hemisphere giants, but now we’ll get to play them all over the next 12 months.”

If Scotland’s recent record against Ireland – 11 defeats out of 11 on Townsend’s watch – gives lie to the theory that greater exposure to an opponent provides a greater chance of success, his record against the Rugby Championship sides does lend it some credence.

Townsend’s sides may have failed to find a way past New Zealand (0/3) or South Africa (0/4) but Scotland have beaten Australia four times out of five (one away from home) since 2017, and Argentina in four of their past six meetings (two away).

Their last meeting with the Pumas, at Murrayfield in 2022, saw Scotland emerge 52-29 victors in a riotous eight tries-to-four encounter in which Graham scored a hat-trick, although Marcos Kremer’s red card meant Argentina had to play the final hour with only 14 men, and some parts of the second half with only 13, and even 12 at one point.

That match, like next Sunday’s meeting, came a week after an agonising loss to New Zealand, requiring Scotland to show anew they are capable of backing up one strong performance – ending in defeat – with another capable of producing a different outcome.

Argentina, as Townsend acknowledged, are arguably a much better side now than they were in 2022, having beaten both New Zealand and Australia home and away, South Africa and the British & Irish Lions over the past two years.

“We seem to play them a lot more than New Zealand, so that’s one thing,” he said, alluding to Tests in Argentina in 2018 and a three-match series in 2022, whereas Scotland have not played the All Blacks in New Zealand since 2000.

“You get the benefits of playing these top teams. Argentina showed that, Australia showed that if you play them regularly, twice a year.

“Argentina are respected by every country. They’re very well coached and Felipe Contepomi has done a very good job. They’ve got some of the best players in the world playing for teams throughout Europe. Maybe that’s helped them.

“We know the threat. I think the way the game changed as well, with the more contested kicks, it suited their strengths. They’ve got two or three excellent players in the air. That will be one of our biggest challenges next week.”

An eight-day turnaround may give Scotland prop Zander Fagerson slightly more chance of being involved against the Pumas as he enters the final stages of his comeback from seven months out following calf and knee injuries.

The tighthead will return to full training this week and Townsend rated his chances at “maybe 50-50” to face Argentina, although their final autumn Test against Tonga is “probably” a more realistic target.

“We’ll see again how he is next week, but the aim would be if he’s available for selection, we’d probably want to involve him because he’s a quality player and that sets him up for that second half of the season as well.”

Townsend does not envisage making too many changes for a match now critical to Scotland ending their autumn campaign in credit, although he will await further updates on star fly-half Finn Russell, who suffered a knee strain and an ankle issue against New Zealand.

“Finn told me he’s fine, but he’s not seen a doctor yet,” Townsend added.